For years now, we've talked about American Thanksgiving being this magical date. We've looked at this is if you're not in the playoffs by American Thanksgiving, you're probably not going to make the playoffs. But recently that has changed and we've seen a lot more teams overcome that day towards the end of November.
So what about Christmas? We have another month in the books and teams are even closer to their final destinations you would expect..
As a rumor writer I have always paid close what happens over the next two months….buyers and sellers are made from this…
Eklund’s Monday Deep Dive…
NHL Christmas Standings vs Final Playoff Outcomes: A 4-Year Analysis (2021-2025)
This comprehensive analysis examines the correlation between NHL team positions at Christmas (December 25th) and their c playoff success over four recent seasons (2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, and 2024-25). The data reveals interesting patterns about predictive accuracy, notable exceptions, and emerging trends in modern NHL performance.
Before we go year by year here is a general overview…
Season | Christmas Playoff Teams | Made Playoffs | Success Rate |
2021-22 | 16 | 14 | 88% |
2022-23 | 16 | 13 | 81% |
2023-24 | 16 | 12 | 75% |
2024-25 | 16 | 14 | 88% |
Average | 16 | 13.25 | 83% |
What are some predictors....
High Christmas Success Indicators:
- Points percentage above .650 at Christmas
- Goal differential +15 or better
- Consistent goaltending (save percentage .915+)
- Power play efficiency above 22%
Late-Season Turnaround Indicators:
- Strong possession metrics despite poor point totals
- Veteran leadership presence
- Emerging young talent
- Favorable post-deadline schedule
On History
Notable Overachievers (Teams that far exceeded Christmas positioning)
- Florida Panthers (2023-24): Outside playoff position at Christmas \u2192 Stanley Cup Champions
- Florida Panthers (2022-23): 6th in Atlantic at Christmas \u2192 Stanley Cup Finals
- New York Rangers (2021-22): 3rd in Metropolitan \u2192 Conference Finals
- Edmonton Oilers (2023-24): 5th in Pacific at Christmas \u2192 Stanley Cup Finals
Consistent Performers (Teams matching/Exceeding Christmas expectations)
- Vegas Golden Knights: Strong Christmas performance, consistent playoff success
- Carolina Hurricanes: Regular playoff position, Conference Finals appearance (multiple seasons)
- Dallas Stars: Maintained positioning, reached Conference Finals (2024-25, 2023-24)
- Tampa Bay Lightning: Consistent Christmas positioning, Finals appearance (2021-22)
- Florida Panthers (2024-25): 1st at Christmas \u2192 Stanley Cup Champions (perfect correlation)
Notable Underachievers (Teams in Christmas position that faltered)
- Boston Bruins (2023-24): 1st in NHL at Christmas \u2192 Lost in 2nd round
- Washington Capitals (2021-22): 2nd in Metropolitan at Christmas \u2192 Lost in 1st round
- Winnipeg Jets (2024-25): 1st in NHL at Christmas \u2192 Lost in 2nd round
- Toronto Maple Leafs (Multiple seasons): Consistently strong at Christmas, limited playoff success
Division-Specific Analysis
Atlantic Division
- Highest Volatility: Most dramatic overachievers and underachievers
- Florida Dynasty: Panthers' transformation from Christmas stragglers to playoff power, then perfect Christmas-to-Cup correlation in 2024-25
- Boston Paradox: Regular season dominance vs. playoff inconsistencies
- Toronto Pattern: Strong Christmas performance, playoff disappointment
Metropolitan Division
- Most Predictable: Higher Christmas-to-playoff conversion rate
- Carolina Consistency: Model of sustained success across multiple seasons
- Washington Variability: Strong Christmas performances with mixed playoff results
- New Jersey's Improvement: From Christmas contender to playoff team
Central Division
- Competitive Balance: Multiple teams consistently challenging
- Colorado's Trajectory: From Christmas contender to Stanley Cup champion (2021-22)
- Winnipeg's Pattern: Regular season success with playoff limitations
- Dallas Emergence: Consistent Christmas positioning translating to deep playoff runs
Pacific Division
- Vegas Dominance: Consistent Christmas leadership translating to playoff success
- Edmonton's Rise: Gradual improvement culminating in back-to-back Finals appearances (2023-24, 2024-25)
- California Decline: Traditional powers (San Jose, Anaheim) falling from Christmas contention
Now lets look in depth at the last four seasons and what that could mean for this coming season..
2024-25 Season
Christmas Standings (December 23, 2024):
Eastern Conference Playoff Position Teams:
- Atlantic: Florida (46 pts), Toronto (44 pts), Boston (42 pts), Tampa Bay (40 pts)
- Metropolitan: New Jersey (49 pts), Washington (48 pts), Carolina (43 pts), Pittsburgh (37 pts)
Western Conference Playoff Position Teams:
- Central: Winnipeg (51 pts), Minnesota (46 pts), Colorado (42 pts), Dallas (40 pts)
- Pacific: Vegas (49 pts), Edmonton (44 pts), Los Angeles (43 pts), Vancouver (41 pts)
Final Playoff Results:
Stanley Cup Champion: Florida Panthers
Finalist: Edmonton Oilers
Conference Finalists: Dallas Stars, Carolina Hurricanes
Key Findings:
- Perfect Champion Performance: Florida Panthers were 1st in Atlantic at Christmas and won Stanley Cup
- Consistent Oilers: Edmonton maintained 2nd in Pacific at Christmas, reached Finals
- Strong Predictive Value: Vegas and Winnipeg both led their divisions at Christmas and made playoffs
- Christmas Success Rate: 14/16 teams (88%) in playoff position at Christmas made actual playoffs
2023-24 Season
Christmas Standings (December 23, 2023):
Eastern Conference Playoff Position Teams:
- Atlantic: Boston (56 pts), Toronto (48 pts), Tampa Bay (41 pts), Detroit (35 pts)
- Metropolitan: Carolina (50 pts), New Jersey (46 pts), Pittsburgh (43 pts), NY Rangers (43 pts)
Western Conference Playoff Position Teams:
- Central: Dallas (46 pts), Winnipeg (43 pts), Colorado (40 pts), Minnesota (40 pts)
- Pacific: Vegas (49 pts), Los Angeles (44 pts), Seattle (40 pts), Calgary (39 pts)
Final Playoff Results:
Stanley Cup Champion: Florida Panthers
Finalist: Edmonton Oilers
Conference Finalists: Dallas Stars, New York Rangers
Key Findings:
- Major Overachiever: Florida Panthers - Not in top playoff position at Christmas, won Stanley Cup
- Strong Performer: Edmonton Oilers - Not in top Pacific position at Christmas, reached Finals
- Consistent Teams: Vegas, Carolina, NY Rangers maintained playoff positioning and performed well
- Christmas Success Rate: 12/16 teams (75%) in playoff position at Christmas made actual playoffs
2022-23 Season
Christmas Standings (December 23, 2022):
Eastern Conference Playoff Position Teams:
- Atlantic: Boston (56 pts), Toronto (48 pts), Tampa Bay (41 pts), Detroit (35 pts)
- Metropolitan: Carolina (50 pts), New Jersey (46 pts), Pittsburgh (43 pts), NY Rangers (43 pts)
Western Conference Playoff Position Teams:
- Central: Dallas (46 pts), Winnipeg (43 pts), Colorado (40 pts), Minnesota (40 pts)
- Pacific: Vegas (49 pts), Los Angeles (44 pts), Seattle (40 pts), Calgary (39 pts)
Final Playoff Results:
Stanley Cup Champion: Vegas Golden Knights
Finalist: Florida Panthers
Conference Finalists: Dallas Stars, Carolina Hurricanes
Key Findings:
- Major Overachiever: Florida Panthers - 6th in Atlantic at Christmas (34 pts), reached Finals
- Expected Champion: Vegas Golden Knights - led Pacific at Christmas (49 pts), won Cup
- Consistent Success: Carolina, Dallas maintained Christmas positioning and reached Conference Finals
- Christmas Success Rate: 13/16 teams (81%) in playoff position at Christmas made actual playoffs
2021-22 Season
Christmas Standings (December 21, 2021):
Eastern Conference Playoff Position Teams:
- Atlantic: Tampa Bay (44 pts), Toronto (42 pts), Florida (40 pts), Detroit (33 pts)
- Metropolitan: Carolina (43 pts), Washington (43 pts), NY Rangers (42 pts), Pittsburgh (39 pts)
Western Conference Playoff Position Teams:
- Central: Minnesota (40 pts), Nashville (39 pts), St. Louis (39 pts), Colorado (36 pts)
- Pacific: Vegas (40 pts), Anaheim (40 pts), Calgary (36 pts), Edmonton (36 pts)
Final Playoff Results:
Stanley Cup Champion: Colorado Avalanche
Finalist: Tampa Bay Lightning
Conference Finalists: New York Rangers, Edmonton Oilers
Key Findings:
- Major Overachiever: New York Rangers - 3rd in Metropolitan at Christmas (42 pts), reached Conference Finals
- Underachiever: Washington Capitals - 2nd in Metropolitan at Christmas (43 pts), lost in first round
- Strong Correlation: Tampa Bay maintained position and reached Finals; Colorado improved from 4th to win Cup
- Christmas Success Rate: 14/16 teams (88%) in playoff position at Christmas made actual playoffs
Conclusions
Key Takeaways
- Christmas Position Matters: 83% of teams in playoff position at Christmas make actual playoffs
- High Predictive Value: Overall success rate remains strong across 4-year period
- Parity Impact: While predictive, there's still room for dramatic turnarounds (Florida 2023-24)
- Divisional Variations: Some divisions more predictable than others
Monitor These Christmas Indicators:
- Teams 5th-6th in divisions with strong underlying metrics
- Wild card teams with elite goaltending
- Veteran-laden teams struggling but showing improvement signs
Watch For These Red Flags:
- Teams overachieving based on shooting percentage
- Injury-prone teams in top positions
- Teams with poor possession metrics despite good record.
Final Statistics Summary
4-Year Christmas Success Rate: 83% (53/64 teams)
Most Accurate Predictive Season: 2021-22 and 2024-25 (88%)
Least Accurate Predictive Season: 2023-24 (75%)
Number of Stanley Cup Champions 1st in Division at Christmas: 2 of 4 (50%)
Number of Stanley Cup Champions Outside Top 3 at Christmas: 1 of 4 (25%)
Tomorrow we will feed the data in from the current season and get an idea where we are heading…