In all my years of doing this, I can’t remember a time when we’ve entered a season with more star power sitting out there — players in the final year of their contracts, without extensions. So I started asking around: Why is this happening?
Of course, there are a lot of reasons, and honestly, it’s a tough thing to pinpoint.
As I’ve said before, we’ve been in a flat cap era for a while, but everyone knows that next year the cap is going up to $100 million. The maximum amount any player can be given on a contract is 20% of the salary cap. And even though an extension technically has nothing to do with this year’s salary cap, that 20% limit is still based on this year’s cap number.
I double-checked this with a couple of GMs just to be sure — and yep, that’s how it works.
So, with a rapidly rising cap, could some of these cases where guys aren’t extended yet just come down to teams and players saying, “Let’s wait till the cap goes up, and then we’ll extend you”?
Of course, it’s risky — but it would likely have to be a handshake deal. I don’t believe there’s anything illegal involved if the conversation is between a player and the team he's already signed to.
So I thought it’d be interesting to take a look at some of the key players who still aren’t signed — and wonder whether a handshake deal could be in play. Let’s look at why they’re not signed yet, and maybe we can go from there...
Connor McDavid
Connor is the best player in the world — and because of that, he’s a unique case. Yes, of course he wants to be a max player and will likely sign a short-term contract for that reason. But let’s also recognize that he hasn’t exactly been thrilled with the Oilers’ direction, especially since last year (and even before that).
So if McDavid plays out this season without a contract, the distractions and pressure in Edmonton will be almost monumental.
I don’t believe there’s a handshake deal here, although it would make a ton of sense if there were. He’s the one player who could legitimately demand $20 million — and right now, the max a contract can offer is around $17.5 million.
That’s why there are all these rumors about a short-term deal. But even that would still limit his pay. Believe me, there’s pressure from the NHLPA to get McDavid to $20 million — though I’m not sure Connor himself cares about the number as much as he cares about finding the best situation for him to play in.
Artemi Panarin
The Breadman is in the final year of a contract that’s paid him $11.7 million annually over seven years. The Rangers aren’t quite sure which direction to take here. That contract is virtually impossible to trade, and the Rangers are still in a window that’s slightly open.
So it makes sense for them to let Artemi play it out and see if he’s still worth anything close to that number. This could easily be a case where both sides just move on — and in that case, freeing up nearly $12 million in cap space might be the best “trade” the Rangers could get.
Jack Eichel
Jack is a totally different situation. Both sides want him to stay in Vegas, and both are happy with his play. Eichel is also happy with the direction the team is heading — and that could soon include Carter Hart in goal.
I’m told Vegas would only move him for a McDavid-type deal.
This could be one of those handshake cases. However, given Vegas’ track record, if I were Jack, I’d want something in writing.
Kyle Connor
This might be a situation where Kyle wants to see where the team goes this season. I’ve heard from multiple people that he wants to be a Toronto Maple Leaf at some point in his career — but that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.
With the cap going up next summer, though, the Leafs may actually have the money to do it. If that’s the case, Winnipeg may look to work out a deal with Toronto sometime during the season. He could end up being the Mikko Rantanen of the 2025–26 season.
Or, again — there could be a handshake in place.
Patrik Laine
This one makes the least sense to me if you're Montreal. If there’s one thing I’ve learned from years of covering the NHL, it’s that Canadiens fans love their players deeper than any other fanbase — and yes, there’s love for Patrik Laine.
But honestly, I don’t get it.
Sure, he made a great first impression. But in my opinion, he’s a lazy player — and that frustrates me because his skill level is off the charts. He’s basically untradeable at this point, so I think Montreal should just let this one run out, take the cap space, and go hard after someone big next summer.