Have you seen their upcoming schedule? Sure the next 4, tonight included, are ones the Wild should reasonably come out on top. But after that? Yikes!
With 3 teams (Minnesota, Dallas and Phoenix) competing for the last 2 playoff spots and only 7 points seperating Minnesota from Dallas and only 5 points between the Wild and the Coyotes, one would think that, at least up to this point, Minnesota has been the better team. However, the playoffs don't start today. Including tonight, Minnesota and Phoenix have 13 games left, Dallas has 14.
Since the Olympics, Phoenix has thus far outplayed Minnesota and Dallas by grabbing 12 of 18 possible points so far in March. Minnesota and Dallas only have 9 of 16 possible points for Minnesota and 18 possible points for Dallas.
With the remaining games left on each of those 3 teams' calendars, the Wild clearly have the most difficult schedule. In analyzing each team's remaing schedule, I decided to go to the league wide standings and give each team their current place's numerical value. So St. Louis counts as 1 point and Buffalo counts as 30 points. Under this analysis, Minnesota's remaining opponents add up to 166 points over 13 games for an average opponent value of 12.769. Dallas' remaining opponents add up to 222 points over 14 games for an average opponent value of 15.857. Phoenix's remaining oppoents add up to 206 points over 13 games for an average opponent value of 15.846.
Each of the 3 teams under discussion must play Nashville and Winnipeg. Aside from those 2 teams, the Wild and Dallas have the following opponents remaining in common: St. Louis, Phoenix, Chicago and St. Louis again. The Wild and Phoenix have the following opponents (aside from Nashville and Winnipeg) in common: L.A., Pittsburgh and Boston.
All said, the team playing best currently, Phoenix) has the easiest schedule. Dallas has the next easiest schedule. Minnesota has the most difficult slate of remaining opponents.
Granted, not always do "should win" games equate to actual wins just like not always do "should lose" games equate to losses. Notwithstanding, after the next 4 games for the Wild (at New Jersey, Detroit, at Detroit and Vancouver), the Wild then go on their version of the Bataan Death March (at St. Louis, at Phoenix, at L.A., at Chicago, Pittsburgh, at Winnipeg, Boston, St. Louis and Nashville). I count, perhaps, 8 losses in 9 games.
Dallas' remaining schedule has a couple of rough spots, but a killer ending (Ottawa, Winnipeg, at Chicago, Nashville, at St. Louis, at Washington, at Carolina, at Tampa Bay, at Florida, Nashville, Columbus, St. Louis and at Phoenix).
Phoenix has their tougher games earlier on and then a couple of doozies at the end, albeit home games (Boston, at NYR, at Pittsburgh, at New Jersey, Minnesota, Winnipeg, at L.A., Edmonton, at Columbus, at Nashville, San Jose and Dallas).
Perhaps it's my overly negative disposition as it concerns the team I cheer for and have held season tickets for since the beginning (thanks to Neil Sheehy during the first few years), but I just can't shake the feeling that this team is about to implode again down the stretch. Sure the Wild are a better team. But, are they good enough to compete with and beat the teams that are in the upper half of the standings? They should be. But whether they can pull it off is the real question. And I for one will not be holding my breath.
All this then begs the question: what happens if the Wild don't make the playoffs? Will heads roll? Will Yeo be replaced as the head coach? What happens to Fletcher?
So, while I will be routing for the home team, my team. I am very nervous about whether or not they make the playoffs which may well be the bench mark of success or failure for team owner Craig Leipold.
What do you guys think?
P.S. Winnipeg and Vancouver are both within striking distance also at 73 and 74 points, respectively compared to Dallas' 75 points, Phoenix's 77 points and the Wild's 82 points. Winnipeg has a tougher schedule than the Wild over their last 11 games with a 11.909 average opponent value, while Vancouver's schedule is easier than the Wild's, but tougher than Dallas and Phoenix with a 14.000 average opponent value. Arguably, the Jets may only win their next game and their final game of the season and lose the 9 in between. Likewise, the Canucks may arguably only win their next game and then their last two games, losing the 7 in between.