One of the biggest surprises in hockey has to be the Patrick Roy led Colorado Avalanche, like the phoenix rising from the ashes the team that selected first overall in 2013 was lifted all the way to the Central Division Title in what can only be described as…unbelievable. I think it was safe to assume that the team would be better than the dismal second last of the half season, presumably Landeskog and Steve Downie (lol) would be healthy, O’Reilly wouldn’t be sulking without a contract for half the season, Stastny and Duchene should be better, added Tanguay and a sweet new first overall player named MacSomething plus Sacco seemed like a lame duck coach.
All in all improvements were expected, but nothing on this scale. For one, their defense on paper is bottom-8 in the NHL; it’s probably the least respected of any team in the playoffs outside of maybe Tampa and Dallas who don’t get a lot of respect on paper either. Who would have guessed that a top-pairing of Erik Johnson-Jan Hejda would be that of the third highest finishing team in the league? If you predicted that, please mail me your crystal ball because it’s crazy.
I feel fairly bad for Jon Cooper of the Lightning because his turnaround of his squad is extremely similar but won’t get the same respect or attention.
1. Bottom of the league in the shortened season 2. Rookie Coach in the NHL that brings a new culture that thrives and is a Jack Adams Nominee 3. Has a former extremely high picked defenseman who people call a bust because he hasn’t broken out, finally break out (Erik Johnson and Victor Hedman) 4. Has a rookie sensation that is nominated for the Calder (MacKinnon and Palat) 5. Gets Vezina level goaltending (Varlamov and Bishop)
In the end however the Avalanche season reads like Cinderella and eventually the fantasy has to end.
Poor Defense
There’s no nice way to put this
Erik Johnson – Jan Hejda Nick Holden – Andre Benoit Tyson Barrie – Nate Guenin Cory Sarich
This is not a Cup caliber defense, adequate to pull an upset? Maybe. Varlamov has given the Avalanche hope with his Vezina season, but he faced the most shots of any goalie by a wide margin and wasn’t getting a ton of help. Let’s be realistic here, all advanced stats metrics say this type of play is unsustainable and while they haven’t had a Leaf like collapse, they do have an extraordinarily eerily similar position as the Anaheim Ducks did last season in terms of their own unsustainability and they collapsed in the playoffs. This team is also fairly brutal on the penalty kill and oddly enough the only team worse than them at that in the playoffs are their opponents and their carousel of goalies.
I admire them for getting this far with this group of defenders, but it’s not enough.
Top Heavy Forward Group
The Avalanche boast one of the scariest four centres a team can roll out on any given night and that doesn’t even include the converted O’Reilly, to put it bluntly Duchene-Stastny-MacKinnon-Mitchell is one of the best starting four in the entire league. However, they are missing the number one in that equation. Matt Duchene has not played since March 29 with a knee injury and is questionable to be ready for the first series.
The team tappers off on the depth chart, though it isn’t really their fault. Missing PA Parenteau and Alex Tanguay (Still out) for large stretches of time really hurt their scoring depth and as we have seen simply down this stretch they are making all sorts of combos to find the most effective build to spread it around.
Patrick Bordeleau - John Mitchell (Concussion) - Maxime Talbot
Brad Malone - Marc-Andre Cliche - Paul Carey
This is certainly not the scariest bottom-6 I’ve seen, but it isn’t great, it really isn’t.
I don’t think the Avalanche have the four lien depth at forward that the other serious contenders can put out there on a regular basis and that will be one of the nails in the coffin.
I think the Avalanche are the feel good story of the season and I really hope they can win a few rounds and cause some havoc, but I’m not expecting that insanity to come to fruition (though I expect them to beat the Wild). Be proud that you will have most like the
Coach of the Year Rookie of the Year Goaltender of the Year
Thanks for reading. Next are the LA Kings.