After an 0-6-2 start that featured a good number of games in which the Canes had little chance, the team has now won 3 of 3 in November?
So what changed?
Many people are pointing to the team getting healthy. It now has a full roster less only Jordan Staal who is out 3-4 months. I think there is an element of truth to that. The Canes are better with versus without Eric Staal. Jeff Skinner is back too. And probably underestimated is the return of Patrick Dwyer who is light on scoring but a sound player and also Nathan Gerbe with the consistent effort he brings every night.
But I really do not think that is the biggest contributor: --Jeff Skinner is still trying to find his way/role/place after missing some games. --Eric Staal has been solid since his return but nothing spectacular. --And while Gerbe and Dwyer fortify the depth, neither have been on fire.
I think it comes down to 4 things:
1) Goaltending. First and foremost, I think Cam Ward's play especially contrasted against the real rough start for him and Khudobin. The Canes have given up 3 goals in 3 games for the wins. Ward gave up more than 4 goals per game in his 1st 4 starts and Khudobin's season GAA is currently pegged at 3.24. The defense has been better in the past few games, but that is not the whole story. Goaltending has flipped from a big negative in October to a positive in November.
2) A change of scenery for Lindholm. After the loss to end the abysmal road trip, I said that Canes coach Bill Peters should unshackle Lindholm and Rask and move Lindholm to center. Lindholm is still at right wing but burst out offensively immediately upon being separated from Rask. After notching a lone assist for his only scoring point in 8 games with Rask, paired with Riley Nash and Nathan Gerbe, he has gone on a scoring binge with 3 goals and 2 assists in 3 games, all Canes wins. As much as Rask has been a pleasant surprise in terms of defensive responsibility, he just is not creating offensive chances for his line mates from the center position at this stage of his career.
3) A boost in play from Justin Faulk. Faulk even more so than Lindholm seemed to suddenly find his game when the calendar flipped to November. I think he was only enough healthy bodies away from being healthy scratched on the road trip (the game after his worst, Liles was out ill and Murphy due to a bruised foot), but he has suddenly rounded into form. While Peters has been very balanced in terms of ice time at forward, but he has leaned very heavily on the top of his defensive corps. He has logged 26:50 and 25:00 of ice time in the last 2 wins which were close and was roughly on pace to do the same in the Coyotes win Saturday before a puck to the face and the Canes building a cushion for the 3rd period. Just like Ward, when you contrast Faulk's extreme negative from October with the positive for November, there is a huge gain all the way up to the team level.
4) 18 deep. The other thing that happened along the way and has probably been aided a bit by the return of NHL talent from injury and a run of 3 teams that were all struggling coming in is that the Canes to a man seem to be playing to Peters formula much better. We got a glimpse of it against the Rangers, when at a low water mark for health, a depleted Canes team played a very simple game of moving the puck forward and staying out of trouble. In that game, the Canes were outplayed and out-chanced but survived. The last 3 games feature a similar straight forward style but suddenly with some opportunistic offense built in. I think the poster children for Peters system have to be Chris Terry and Zach Boychuk. Both have excelled at the AHL level and failed multiple times to transition to the NHL level. And I think you could have argued before the season started that Peters' system was actually a worse fit for both of them compared to a bit looser system by Muller. But both players have bought in fully. Boychuk forechecks hard and consistently and still gets back to take away cutbacks and passing lanes by skating hard to get back into plays. Chris Terry has been consistently good defensively especially in terms of positioning which is vital for his game given his speed which is below average for the NHL. But most significantly both players clearly get Peters approach of making quick decisions for the best available play even if it is to move the puck forward/deep, get off the ice and look for offense on another shift. This duo with a rotating mix of centers epitomizes the Peters' theme of playing solid hockey first and not giving up much and then opportunistically looking for offense when it is there without forcing it. With Semin out of the lineup and Skinner temporarily in a lesser role, you can see where the team is starting to get it. Finally, any mention of the team playing well and playing the system well would be incomplete without mentioning Riley Nash who has been the Canes best player through 11 games.
I am looking for 2 things in the near future:
1) Standing up to a tougher test. The Canes are playing well, but they also caught a nice stretch of schedule. Arizona was struggling coming in. Los Angeles finally won their 1st road game tonight. And Columbus is minus a big chunk of the top of their roster right now. The Canes get Columbus again and a struggling Washington team on Saturday. But after that, the level of competition increases. The Canes get Calgary and Winnipeg (both surprisingly very good teams right now) at home before finishing November with 6 of 8 on the road mostly against good teams (Pit X2, Bos, LA, SJ). If they claw back to breakeven, can they at least maintain it through a difficult stretch of schedule?
2) Integrating the top-tier skill. Winning driven by the middle and even bottom of the roster is wonderful for building confidence and buy in, but the higher gear yet to be achieved happens if/when the team can maintain the current level of consistent system play but can also integrate Semin, Skinner and maybe to a lesser degree EStaal who are mostly on the outside looking in at the recent success. Is it possible to get those players to fit into the system without completely stifling their creativity and offensive ability? I think that is the point where the Canes can hit a higher gear.
What say you Canes fans? Did you cancel your McDavid jersey order based on the 3-game win streak? How do you split the current success between the team being hot, the team being better than the start and a favorable schedule?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!