A week ago, I wrote my expectations for what I thought each of the Rangers' three restricted free agents could sign for with the team. Today, Larry Brooks presented his view as to what he believes Derick Brassard, Chris Kreider and Mats Zuccarello are either asking for or could receive both in arbitration and in a long-term deal. In addition, Brooks highlights the possible interest in Kevin Hayes, who Ek discussed earlier this week.
Here is what I proposed, what Brooks wrote and the variance between the two:
Player My Proposal Brooks (Arb/LT) Variance (ST/LT) Brassard 4 yrs, $16.8 mi $4.5-$4.75 mil, $5.5 LT $300-400k / $1.3 mil per yr
Kreider 2 yrs, $3.25-$3.75 mil 2 yrs, $4.2-$5.0 mil $500-612.5k per yr
Zuccarello 4 Yrs, $16.8 mil $3.7-$4 mil arb, $4.5 mil LT (200-500K ST), $300K LT
This is what I wrote last night, updated thanks to Rangerdanger94's comments back to me on the maximum salary a player can make so that if he is sent down, it's not counted against the cap. That looks to be in the $925k range, as it's the minimum NHL salary, probably around $575k, based on using 2012-13 amount and current cap, which is close to where it was that year, plus $350k. Factoring that in below, here is where the Rangers likely are at in terms of available room:
Following the signing of Matthew Lombardi for $800k, the Rangers now have $13.2 million in cap room remaining. That numbers includes Chris Mueller ($600,000), Matt Hunwick ($600,000) Michael Kostka ($650,000), Jesper Fast ($805,000) but not JT Miller ($894,167). Mueller, Hunwick and Kostka are all unlikely to break camp with the team as they are depth at Hartford. Fast has a realistic shot at being in the top-12 or serving as the 13th player while Miller is a pretty good bet to make the team.
My understanding is that because Fast and Miller are both on their ELC, if they fail to make the squad and start in Hartford, their salary does not count against the cap. In addition, Mueller, Hunwick and Kostka, because they have one-way deals less than the $925k, if they are sent down to Hartford, their full salary does not count against the cap. But with the expectation that Miller will break camp with the team, add in his $894k, so the net difference with Mueller, Hunwick and Kostka down and Miller up is a positive $1.05 mil, giving the Rangers, $14.25 mil in cap room remaining.
Right now, under contract, projecting from who should be in the Opening Day lineup are:
Forwards : Nash, Stepan, MSL, Hagelin, Moore and Glass. Defense: Girardi, McDonagh, Boyle, Staal and Klein. Goaltenders: Lundqvist and Talbot.
In addition, once you add in Brassard, Kreider and Zuccarello, that give you nine forwards. Fast and Miller are likely to make the team as well, so that's 11. Lombardi has a good shot as well, making it 12. Look for NY to give strong consideration to Oscar Lindberg, which if it happens, that would be a $675k hit or possibly bring back Carcillo, for a slightly higher salary. On D, once Moore is back, that fills the lineup, with Hunwick or Kostka likely the seventh, which means one of their salaries will be on the cap. What I am saying is, the $14.2 mil I project will be reduced by whoever is the 13th forward or 7th defenseman, meaning you will likely have around $13 mil to sign the three RFA and Moore.
Getting back to the BIG THREE. If each signs with what Brooks projected, first for arb and second if Long-Term deals, the cap impact would be either $10.3 mil at low end and $1.25 mil at the high end if they go to arb and $12.5 mil if signed long-term. The Kreider and Zuccarello amounts are fairly in line with what I thought and projected, even Kreider gets the $2.1 mil per, as compared to the $1.875 mil I had projected on high end. Brassard will be more complex. The Tyler Ennis signing of five years, $23 mil could drive and may have already driven Brassard's price up. The arb figure on him, especially if low-end would still be within the reasonable range, the high-end could price him out, especially with Derek Stepan's two-year deal expiring after the year, requiring a long-term commitment.
For Brassard and Zuccarello, the specter of losing both after the season has to be factored in as well. Ideally, signing each to a one-year deal now and then to a long-term one, so the cap hit is pushed out to 2015-16 and beyond is the ideal. The problem, as we saw with Lundqvist and Girardi negotiations, is that you could end up overpaying a player at the time if you wait till during the year in which their contract is up making them a UFA after that season. Similarly with Callahan, who may have had a deal that Sather walked away from, dealing him for MSL, and with Boyle/Pouliot, failing to sign a player could require moving him at the deadline or losing him when an in-season or pre-season accord could have been reached. If the three come in at the above projected arb figures,especially at lower end, there is still room to sign John Moore and add an inexpensive forward for more depth without going above the cap, even though 10% is allowed during the summer. If those figures are higher, the Rangers will be a whole mess of trouble, which is why locking in Kreider first, factoring in he is the first arb date and may be the easiest to sign for cost certainty, has to be a priority. Brassard, whose hearing is last, may take the longest, given the difference between what we believe to be his ask and what the Rangers can afford for '14-'15.
Kevin Hayes:
Brooks wrote this morning that Rangers may have interest in Hayes, who was selected 24th overall by the Blackhawks in 2010 but has yet to come to terms. If he does not sign by midnight, August 15, he will become a free agent and have several suitors. The Rangers, who have supplemented their roster with several college free agents signings lately, largely due to trading first round picks recently away for Nash, MSL etc., are expected to have strong interest in Hayes.
New York added Ryan Haggerty, Mat Bodie and Chris McCarthy as free agents last year following their college campaigns. Hayes, who is 6-foot-3, 205 pounds, left-handed shooting right wing and played at BC, scored 27 goals and 38 assists while playing on a line with Johnny Gautreau. He is likely looking for a team where he could immediately step into the lineup. Brooks added that if he was available for this year's draft, Hayes would have gone between 15 and 25, in what was viewed as a weak draft class.
Brooks projects that Hayes could fill a role on the third or fourth line with NY if he signed with them. However, expect lot of other teams with more cap room and open slots to chase Hayes. New York can try and sell him on the fact that it is the Rangers and an Original Six team, but so is Chicago, so it may come down, to dollars and role, the latter possibly the most important. If that's the case, New York might be a finalist, if Hayes makes it to free agency, but I would be surprised if he signs here. Ek projects Calgary due to Gaudreau's presence and open spots, which makes a lot of sense. The X-Factor is Kreider and could he convince Hayes, who he played with for two seasons to come to NY? Locking up Kreider up for a few years, even on a bridge deal without creating any rancor or discord, would be a wise move if you want him to as a liaison to help bring Hayes onboard.