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The Penguins have clinched a playoff berth for the 8th consecutive season. As we look forward to the playoffs I wanted to take a brief look at the forward group and how they have performed in the possession department to this point. What lineup will give the Penguins the best chance to win?
This chart is using Corsi For % rel. It is a metric that takes Corsi for percentage relative to team's CF% with player not on ice
The chart is basically confirming what has been said all year, the bottom 6 stinks.
It also confirms something else; the young kids can play and do just fine. Beau Bennett, Jayson Megna, and Brian Gibbons are the best options for the Penguins right now.
Tanner Glass, Craig Adams, and Taylor Pyatt are not.
Also alarming on the chart is where Brandon Sutter and Marcel Goc are. Both have less than desirable numbers, but one worries me more than the other.
Plain and simple the Penguins need more out of Brandon Sutter. Sutter was never supposed to completely fill Jordan Staal’s skates but he hasn’t even come close.
In Jordan Staal’s last season with the Penguins he had a CF% of 54.6 and a CF% rel of +1.2%. Those are really great numbers.
This year Brandon Sutter has a CF% of 42.5% and a CF% rel of -7.8%. Those numbers are really bad. Some may point to the fact that his linemates have been dragging him down this year and that is a logical hypothesis, one that could hold some merit. However, Sutter’s numbers were just as bad in the 2012-2013 season. He had a CF% of 42.4% and a CF% rel of -9.0% in 2012-2013.
Sutter did not have the excuse of bad linemates last year, he had the same ones that Jordan Staal always had in Matt Cooke and Tyler Kennedy. Sutter just did a much worse job with them.
While Sutter does have a significant downgrade of linemates this year, he also has had a significant downgrade in the difficulty of his role, his numbers are still very bad. Last year he was thrown into Jordan Staal’s former shutdown role, this year the coach’s have protected him because he is unable to meet the challenges of that role.
Marcel Goc has bad possession numbers with the Penguins, but I’m not as worried about him. He has shown that he can handle shutdown minutes successfully in Florida as recent as this season. Throw some of the kids with Marcel Goc instead of Glass, Adams, and Pyatt and watch his possession numbers jump.
I believe less is more with Brandon Sutter moving towards the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Penguins Marcel Goc’s injury puts a wrench in those plans for now.
Unless Sutter can show a significant change in his play I would not rely on his services in much higher than a 4th line role (with Goc in lineup).
Kunitz-Crosby-Stempniak Bennett-Malkin-Neal Jokinen-Goc-Megna Gibbons-Sutter-Vitale/Engelland
That gives the Penguins the best chance at winning games in the playoffs.
Will the Penguins trust the kids? Will they relegate Sutter to the 4th line? The answers to those questions will play a big factor in just how far the Penguins can go in the playoffs.
Don’t hold your breath.
Thanks for reading!
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