On this, the eve of the Ottawa Senators season, there is a lot of conjecture surrounding Marc Methot, the Ottawa Senators' defense and their impact on the level of success (or lack thereof) the team will have this season.
As Methot starts the season on the IR, Senators fans and management will get a short-term (hopefully) look at what life could be like without Methot in the long term should he not agree to a contract extension soon.
If you didn't know, this is how the Senators blue line has been lining up in preparation for opening night
Erik Karlsson - Jared Cowen Cody Ceci - Chris Phillips Eric Gryba - Mark Borowiecki Patrick Wiercioch
While Cowen has been the target of the most criticism over the last 15 months or so by the Sens fan base, I like that first combination and what it could become if they are left together for the next 10 years or so. Cowen had his struggles last season, but has looked better so far in the preseason and when he adjusts to how a partner for Karlsson has to play I think he will be fine.
Phillips worries me on the 2nd pair, and in the preseason this pair struggled, especially on the Friday night game against Montreal. Ideally, Methot would fill Phillips' spot on this pair, insulating Ceci with a more mobile presence.
Borowiecki has been very good in the preseason, adding elements that the Senators haven't had in a long time on their blue line. As long as he can rein it in and not take foolish penalties in his pursuit of punishing hits, he will be a positive addition. Gryba, for all his foibles and flaws, is a decent 6th defenseman and has fit in nicely with Boro.
I still think that the best thing for Wiercioch (and the Senators) would be to accept a couple of conditioning stints in the AHL, and build his game, and his confidence, back to the point where he can be an everyday NHLer. The potential is still there, but the constant parade to the press box isn't helping him or the team in the least. Wiercioch should be that third mobile, puck moving defenseman that would balance out all 3 pairs, but he just hasn't had the consistency and even when he did play, and play well, it never seemed to be enough to stay out of coach Paul MacLean's doghouse.
I don't share many of the experts (and a few of the fans) prediction of doom and gloom with the blue line as it sits. I also back the club in holding firm in their contract negotiations this time around. Just because other teams make mistakes and give ridiculous contracts to average defensemen (hello Washington - Brooks Orpik?) doesn't mean the Senators should cross a line that they don't want to for Methot.
Both sides in that contract negotiation will look at this first stint, however long it lasts, and gauge just how important Methot is to the team. If they get shelled, then Methot gains leverage, but if the defense is stable and solid, then the Senators can continue to hold their ground.
Basically, the success or failure of the Senators blue line doesn't rest in their own hands. A lot of it will come down to the goaltending. In the "Pesky Sens" era, goaltending made up for many of the blunders of the defense, while last year errors were magnified because the netminders were sub-standard. Yes, they allowed too many shots, but that has been a trend for years, it isn't something that just came about last season. The big difference last season was the inability of Craig Anderson and Robin Lehner to come up with timely saves, at any time, which magnified the defensive errors.
With or without Methot, this defenseive group should be adequate enough to keep the Senators at least in a playoff race late into the season. However, it doesn't matter how good the defensemen play, because if the goaltenders can't at least put average performances in the net behind them, it is all for naught. And last season they were far below average, no matter what anyone says.