Sadly there is no Calder Trophy picture so I went with IceGirl23A. The A really sold me. I'm going into the pic blind, so let's hope for the best because I'm not changing it. For those who missed the Vezina and Hart blogs. I had Rinne and Giordano as the early winners. If you want to read the in-depth look, you can do so by looking at my archive and finding everything I've ever written.
The Calder trophy is probably the hardest trophy to predict of the lot. Primarily because these are new players coming into the fold and there are a lot of variables. It isn't sufficient to know the prospects coming into the league, that really won't help you. It can be a guiding help, but in the end will mean nothing most times. For example. This off-season on the HB Hotstove we picked our candidate for the Calder. Overwhelmingly the choices were Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jonathan Drouin and Johnny Gaudreau at two votes for each. Of those three Gaudreau is the only one realistically in the hunt.
Kuznetsov was an easy choice, 22 years old, has played well in the KHL, a very offensively dynamic player and we all know the votes go to he scorers. Yet here we stand, he's playing 11 minutes a night.
Similarly Drouin was an easy choice. Considered by many to be the best prospect in the NHL at the time, Drouin is an offensive wizard and one need only look at the Lightning's potent offense and imagine him riding shotgun with Stamkos. Well he isn't and likely won't this season. He has been playing a limited role and tasked with upping his defensive game as the Lightning have enough scoring depth to allow this.
Lastly Gaudreau, one might be somewhat bemused, but this was also an easy choice. Gaudreau like the other two is an offensive machine. He had just destroyed the NCAA...twice. He's 21 so not the most inexperienced prospect and had just dominated at the World Championships for the Americans. Unlike those others, he's gained his coaches complete confidence and has been one of the major reasons for Calgary's success.
Not the quickest example, but an example nonetheless.
Now there is still a ton of hockey to be played and rookies are by definition unpredictable and streaky. So this is very much still in the air. A sudden change of heart by a coach. A hot streak here. A cold streak there. Michael Hutchinson stealing the starting position. So many variables can completely sway the outcome.
Filip Forsberg
What a difference a year makes. New coach, new teammates, new life. Forsberg is leading the rookie scoring race by four points and one goal...oh and he has that thing that lazy voters will love...the NHL lead in +/- at +21. As the lead scorer in the points race and lead scorer of the Preds (goals and points), it's a safe assumption he is in first place on the ballot right now. The 20 year old has surpassed all expectations after struggling to find his place in the lineup last season. Still a lot of hockey to play, but I wouldn't want to be George McPhee these days.
Aaron Ekblad
Most seasons it is usually assumed that the first overall pick will be a heavy favourite for the Calder trophy. Even if they don't win it. Hell the voters will actually punish 1st overall choices if they aren't gods in their first season. Just ask Yakupov who finished 5th despite leading rookies in scoring or Stamkos finishing 9th. Ekblad though...well he's a defenseman. One. He won't score the points. Two defensemen take time. Three the Panthers will likely have him on the bottom pairing. Three assumptions that nobody could be faulted for making that are proving demonstrably false. Ekblad is third in the rookie scoring contest, with 5 goals 18 points in 26 games. As an 18 year old defenseman. He could go scoreless for the rest of the season and that would be one of the better 18 year old defensemen seasons in the past decade. He's two off the pace of Hedman's and 9 from Doughty's. I mean, let's be blunt, he's tied for the lead in Panthers scoring and is third in goal scoring, that's insane. He's playing top-4 minutes and I like how they have insulated him with strong veterans playing with both Mitchell and Campbell at times. Defensemen don't get a lot of love in this trophy race as seen by Tyler Myers and Barrett Jackman being the only two to win it this century. Yet if Ekblad continues his strong play, let alone torrid pace, it will be hard to ignore his name on the ballot.
Johnny Gaudreau
Mentioned earlier in the blog. Gaudreau sits in second in the scoring race and has been very impressive this season after a bad start that led to a benching against Columbus. Whatever Hartley said seems to have inspired him as since then he has only played three games under 15 minutes of ice-time and has 21 points 22 games since then. The 5'9 150...he can't honestly be 150 can? Jeez. Sorry, the 5'9 150lb winger known only as "Johnny Hockey" is helping prove that size isn't the most important factor and that a lot of these guys going undrafted or in the later rounds are much better investments than goons or 6'7 defensemen that can't skate.
Winner : Aaron Ekblad
Aaron Ekblad is not just the highest scoring rookie defenseman, he's in the top-10 of scoring by defensemen league round. At 18...and he isn't a strict "offensive" defender. He's the second highest scoring defenseman at even strength, just four points behind the dominating Giordano. Think about that for a second and let it sink in. Ekblad has one less 5vs5 point than Steven Stamkos, as many as Claude Giroux, one more than Patrick Kane...it's absurd. Obviously points aren't everything, but it isn't like he's a liability in his own end. Ekblad should he continue this kind of year will have had the best 18 year old rookie season by a defenseman since fellow first overall selection Bryan Berrard...let's hope that visor helps down the road.
Thanks for reading.