Follow Colin on Twitter!: @ColinDJD
While having a discussion in the thread of yesterday’s blog, a few readers brought up the potential value of Paul Byron to the Calgary Flames, and more specifically, how his size may be his biggest hurdle with respect to his NHL success.
That said, I decided to dig deeper into this and possibly provide an analysis or further discussion on the matter, as it stands to reason that the size of a young NHL player has a lot to do with their potential success through development.
For those unaware, Paul Byron is a 5’10, 180lbs prospect for the Calgary Flames who was drafted in the 6th round of the 2007 NHL entry draft. What’s noticeable about Byron, for starters, are his numbers while playing in the QMJHL. In his last season playing for the Gatineau Olympiques, Byron registered 33 goals, 66 assists for a total of 99 points in 64 games played. These totals would be good for first on his team in points and 4th in the league.
While not necessarily an indicator of success or high end talent, these point totals would suggest that the player in question may have a certain level of offensive potential. As with many around the league, including most NHL scouts, when Byron was drafted in 2007 standing 5’7 and weighing 153lbs, there was not much hope for the young forward. That said, since being drafted, Byron has played five seasons in the AHL and has registered 122 points in 201 games played. In his short stint in the NHL so far, Byron has played 72 games and registered 25 points.
While his AHL and NHL numbers haven’t been overly impressive, what should be assessed are patterns in his development, if you will. When assessing his progression from juniors, to pro, we can see a steady overall increase in performance. That said, and on average, Byron has played at a .61ppg pace in the AHL. Some may look at his numbers and think – Well this kid is good for around 20pts per year in the AHL, so what!?
I suppose on the surface, a player of his size and point totals so far in his career would be an easy target for dismissal of talent. That being established, Byron is actually quite similar to another young and small forward once owned by the Calgary Flames – Martin St Louis.
Now before you get your panties in a bunch, hear me out.
Martin St Louis was undrafted into the NHL and played for the University of Vermont in the ECAC, until being picked up by the Flames organization in 1997 where he spent the majority of the season playing with the Saint John Flames. A small, shifty forward himself, many doubted the talent and potential which a player like St Louis displayed at the time. After a few years playing between the AHL and NHL for Calgary, St Louis would spend his last season at the age of 24 with the NHL Flames, registering 18pts in 56 games played(similar to Byron) before getting traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
We all know how the rest of the story goes with respect to Martin and his successful career, which brings us back to the original discussion. Are there enough similarities between these two players that the Calgary Flames should ultimately provide the young man with extra time to prove his worth? Or are the odds of players like this reaching the level of St Louis simply too poor to grant extra time and development?
That, my friends, will be the million dollar question for this young man.
Where players like Byron may be able to succeed moving forward is largely due to the changes in the NHL, given that players with speed and creativity can often make up for their lack of size as the game has gotten faster. We see less big, immobile players in today's NHL, and more well rounded guys. The NHL is trying to lean toward a more skilled game than physical, which was argued as being the "European" league just a few years go.
Even though the above holds true, the trend in the NHL continues to be toward size as displayed in the two below graphs, courtesy of NHLnumbers.com
As you can clearly see above, while leaning toward a faster more skilled game, players remain predominantly larger on average, simply meaning that while Byron has every chance to succeed at his size, his odds still remain lower than if he were a few inches taller, and a few pounds heavier.
The more I looked into this, the more it got me to thinking. I was one who, when taking over and writing for the Calgary Flames for Hockeybuzz, assessed all the players in the system and did my best to predict which of the players hold more value than others. Byron, for instance, was rather low on my radar given his size and numbers. It appears, however, that I have fallen into a potential scouting trap where I valued certain players higher than others, given their size and draft position. Just playing the odds - I’m not perfect.
Consider a player like Joe Colborne, for instance. It seems, at least to me, that Colborne is considered to possess a higher level of potential and has been awarded with a higher amount of development time for two reasons; he was drafted in the first round of the 2008 NHL draft, and he stands at 6’5. What has he done since? Well, he’s registered 125pts in 211 AHL games, and 29pts in 83 NHL games.
Sound familiar?
Because the two have very similar numbers and yet one has played a total of 67 NHL games this year with the Flames while the other has played a total of 38. And while the argument is that Colborne would need to pass through waivers in order to be sent down, I have a feeling that he wouldn’t play much time in Abbotsford had this not been the case. So what seems to be the issue with Paul Byron that coaches, fans, and even bloggers took time to notice his abilities?
Well, I suppose at this point in time the only thing I can go by is that players like Martin St Louis are the exception, not the rule and, typically speaking, smaller players have a harder time finding success because they are ultimately disadvantaged in that regard. Is this likely going to be the case for Byron?
It is incredibly difficult to say at this point, but if there is anything we should be able to conclude here is this – when guys like Byron are skating and working their butts off like he has been of late, maybe you should take a second look at the player and reassess his value to your organization.
Byron will get the chance to continue to show what he has to offer as the year comes to a close, and I expect him to continue to play with heart. His current coach confides in his abilities, fans have warmed up to him, and a certain blogger may have put him to the side to reassess where he feels the player fits in the rebuilding puzzle of the organization.
That said, the Flames are expected to be busy this summer, and they currently ice a few too many smaller players which could be bad news for Byron.
Which players of the group they decide to keep remains to be seen, however Paul may have earned a second look which could ultimately keep him in a Flames jersey beyond this season; something that was not a common belief just a few short weeks ago.
That’s all for today folks, thanks for reading!