I was really hoping to make the blog today Callahan and Girardi free to the point that I was going avoid having a c's or g's in the entire blog. But as you have seen in the first sentence, that clearly is not the case. Despite all the apparent twists and turns, we are almost back at the point we were Saturday when Boomer Esiason started this whole rigmarole albeit with a bit more information.
So what do we know? - The Rangers are pretty much committed to dealing Callahan, with Darren Dreger putting the likelihood of him going at 99%.
- Callahan still wants seven years at between $6.5 and $7 mil per, which appears to be immutable, and the Rangers have offered five years and $30 mil.
- If Callahan makes it to free agency, Buffalo is the favorite to sign him and there is some speculation if anyone else would want to meet that price
- Girardi and the team may be inching closer to a deal, though even if the Rangers meet the asking price of six years and $5.5 mil, there is no guarantee he signs on the dotted line.
- Larry Brooks speculates that Callahan and Girardi, who Brooks, channeling his inner Pierre McGuire, points out played for the OHL Guelph Storm in 2002-03, could pull a Suter and Parise and sign with the same team this off-season.
- The speculation and chatter is clearly having an impact on Alain Vigneault, as he worried about the leadership on the team and likely the future chemistry following a hot streak that started in Chicago before the deadline.
Here is where it gets crazier: - Martin St. Louis definitely asked for a trade out of Tampa, with that request coming weeks ago
- A pretty reliable source indicated to me that his desire to leave Tampa started way before the Olympics and wasn’t fully influenced by the initial snub, though that could be the tipping off point, but has to do with his relationship with Steve Yzerman
- His desire to leave Tampa is so great that he will only waive his NMC to go to NY, which is near Greenwich Ct. and where his family is. Plus, he would be reunited with Brad Richards, a teammate of his in Tampa
Speculation Time: - Brooks reports that the Rangers would send Callahan to Tampa straight up for St. Louis but Yzerman has no desire to do that. The Rangers do not want to up the ante at this point, either including picks or prospects, choosing to wait out Stevie Y knowing that they may have an upper hand here.
- Yzerman can go one of several directions: 1) deal St. Louis now to avoid the headache the rest of the way, which could adversely impact the locker room and take away some of the future leverage he has with players but allow him to get bigger return with about 100 games left on St. Louis contract. 2) Hold on to St. Louis, try and play out the rest of the year counting on St. Louis being professional and allowing the team to get to full strength when Steve Stamkos returns. 3) Subsequent to 2, trade St. Louis after the year either to the Rangers or convince St. Louis to waive his NMC to go elsewhere.
- If the Rangers know they will deal Callahan, which seems likely, they put the full court press on to sign G, but if not, deal him to Anaheim or Boston.
- Stand pat, since if they lose either or both, the savings can be plowed into free agency or a trade acquisitions, which allows the team to play out the rest of the year building on the recent success they have coupled with a hot Lundqvist between the pipes.
Glen Miller asked three great questions which should partially drive any analysis here: 1. How close is the present roster to realistically challenge for the Cup? (If close then you are going to keep it together; if not then all bets are off and you have to make tough decisions)
2. What type of value do the players have on the open market? (sure, you don't want to lose them for nothing but as long as you have a chance at the playoffs then you don't sell for pennies on the dollar just to make sure you get something)
3. How close are your top prospects and how high are their ceilings? (the closer the prospects are the easier it would be to perhaps let those potential UFA's go)
Each one of the three questions have answers that are subjective based on how an individual believes. For me, on 1, I think another decent scorer, maybe a physical d-man and/or some size would help the current roster. Right now, I think they can beat anyone but Pitt or Boston, and if Pitt doesn’t get Letang back or Martin misses time and they don't make an acquisition, it will hurt them. Same with their forwards with Dupuis out, but I expect Ray Shero to make a deal. For Boston, they need a blueliner, but have the size to give the Rangers fits again in the playoffs, though I think the Blueshirts offense is a lot more potent than it was last year in the playoffs.
On 2, Callahan and Girardi have major value and would be one of the top free agents if they make it there. If your answer to 1 is you believe you can contend, then 2 doesn’t matter since you are resigned to letting them go to free agency to make the run.
For 3, to me the best prospects who have the potential for the largest impact are Duclair, Buchnevich and Skjei, none of whom are that close, along with Miller, Lindberg and Allen, each of whom can make an impact but I think the first three will have a bigger one. Because of that, if you think Miller can fill Cally's role at somewhat of a loss but one you can backfill elsewhere, then let him go. But with no real d-man that can step in for G, as McIlrath isn’t ready, and while I like Allen, there would be a clear drop off along with Marc Staal a UFA after 14-15, keeping Girardi is paramount.
The whole flipside to this is that if either Callahan or Girardi leave and especially both, that hard-working, home-grown team that we all knew and loved two years ago will have been torn asunder. An argument a fellow HB reader made and one that's hard to disagree with is that the Rangers would once again become the mercenary organization it was for some many unsuccessful years. Larry Brooks and others have made the argument that because the Rangers have overpaid free agents for so many years, why shouldn't home-grown players seeing what they have done for others brought in off the street be asking for similar treatment? The short answer is that they are right, yet that doesn't make us feel any better or agree with Callahan and Girardi for their current position.
The counter-argument is that in the past the Rangers did take that tact, but after the nightmarish deals given (at least recently as we all know the ignominious history of Glen Sather free agent signings/trades in the early 00's) to Gomez, Drury and Redden - a motley list for sure -how many other deals in the past five years were that egregious? Gaborik - he scored 40 goals twice in the three full years he was here. Richards - Calgary and I believe Toronto offered him more, so not that much of an overpayment. Other than that, it's been actually fairly stable in terms of the dollars awarded and in many cases - see Prust, Brandon - we have criticized Sather for not spending more in certain cases.
I want Callahan and Girardi to stay, but understand it's a business. Choices have to made in the prism of the salary cap. You know as much as I love Lundqvist, I thought he gave no hometown discount and could have gotten a $1 mil less per season and still been happy, freeing up cap room. Of course, the team could just amnesty Richards, and if they do re-sign Callahan and Girardi, they could do that to free up room, but the argument will then be, well just sign Paul Stastny, which would create the same issue as existed previously, throwing money at big name free agents.
Michael Stuart presented an interesting argument in his blog about the Tampa view of St. Louis and one that's hard to argue with. The only caveat is that if the dissatisfaction does stem back way before the Olympics, then his desire to leave does make a bit more sense:
I've tried to sympathize with St. Louis's position, but I just can't do it. The fact that he's willing to turn his back on his teammates, friends, and the fans who have supported him over the years speaks volumes (negatively) about his character. If he has an issue with Yzerman, that's fine. But the fact that he's willing to let that issue interrupt what has been a very successful season for the Tampa Bay Lightning highlights a level of selfishness that I didn't think we'd ever see from St. Louis.If a Gold medal wasn't enough to mend his broken heart, it's likely that nothing will be.
In addition, as you have read from me, elite athletes are elite just because of their talent but in many cases because of their mental makeup. That ability to be supremely confident in their ability and to expect to be treated as such is a big component of why they are successful. In this case, if the argument does stem back to before the Olympics and that was the icing on the cake, mending fences will be hard. While St. Louis should be professional and look past the slight, but pride is what help drives the athlete forward, without it, he is just another player.
The battle lines have been drawn. There is 162 hours to the trading deadline. It's possible this scenario could play out to the last minute with each side waiting for the other to blink first while back room negotiations take place in NY and Florida that could impact even if a deal occurs. Settle in, we have long road ahead of us. I hope to write a game preview - remember those - tomorrow, but of course that depends on the next twist as the Callahan and Girardi saga turns….