First of all, before getting into today's blog, I just want to clear up some facts about the Five Year Out-Clause that we talked about in yesterday's post. While I said the out-clause was tied to profitability, I wasn't, as was pointed out to me, very specific about what exactly it meant.
Basically, as per their agreement with the city of Glendale, Ice Arizona (the owners of the team) have the right to opt out of their 15-year agreement to keep the team in Glendale if, after five years, they have lost a total of $50 million. There are estimates that the team has lost up to $25 million in a single year before, so it is directly tied to profitability, but I don't want people to get the wrong idea and so now you have all the facts.
Yesterday's post spawned a lot of talk, but one thing that came up really kind of "stuck in my craw" so to speak (even though I don't have a craw and I hate that expression, I am trying to get around my natural proclivity to use profanity!)
What came up was several people saying, basically, and I'm paraphrasing, that "the Coyotes should move because if they were going to make it Arizona, they all ready would have and whether or not they have a strong TV market is irrelevant."
This must be addressed because I don't think it's just one guy's feelings. If you were the blogger for the Coyotes, you would hear this sentiment a lot. Like, everyday a lot. Trust me.
So, here's my defense:
Basing the future on the past isn't a good argument. The past has very little to do with the future or the long term viability of the franchise, and I'll tell you why in three separate points.
#1. The Coyotes moved here in 1996. That's 18 years ago, or, roughly, a generation. When an area first gets a new sport, it's a curiosity, but outside of the few who just kind of arbitrarily throw themselves into it, it takes some time to build up the kind of passion and love that transcends common sense - which is what being a "fan" or "fanatic" is all about.
Based on my experience living in Toronto and seeing the dawn of the Blue Jays and Raptors in non-traditional baseball and basketball markets, I would say it takes probably around a generation until the roots of the team take on that sort of "beyond common sense" approach to total fandom necessary for a team to really thrive.
The Coyotes have been in Arizona now for about a generation and this type of love is apparent. The team does have it's hard-core supporters. Sure, the team remains last in attendance, but there are other factors at work: Hockey was way newer to the Phoenix area than basketball or baseball were to the Toronto area, the economy is garbage, and finally, the ownership has never been stable, until now.
#2. The TV market in Arizona, accounting for cities ranked higher that have no hockey team, like Houston, is top ten in the USA. This means that even though the Coyotes aren't a mainstream entertainment choice - yet - that they have the potential to increase the NHL's viewership probably more than any other team. This is exactly why the NHL has never quit the market despite all the troubles - the potential is there.
Now, the argument I get most about this is the same as before - "If it was going to happen, it'd already have happened" which, brings me to my third and final point.
#3. If you grant me that it takes roughly a generation to put down the kind of roots necessary for the long term success of a team, and that potentially, the TV market is enormous and thus a worthy motivation for (the NHL) keeping the team, then there is but one more thing you need to understand to realize why the NHL goes to the trouble to keep the team here and why it will one day finally be profitable: Stable ownership is more important to the success of a team than the market it plays in. The Coyotes aren't always on the verge of moving because people in Arizona don't care about hockey, but because their owners have been sketchy, broke, irresponsible, stupid and just overall terrible.
Ownership matters more than whether or not hockey is popular in a given area. This is a fact. Don't believe me? Would you argue that Pittsburgh isn't a hockey town? Of course not, that'd be ridiculous. But there team was on the verge of leaving for years and years and also went bankrupt. But, stable ownership came along and no one has talked about moving the Penguins for years.
Would you argue that Dallas is more of a hockey town than Phoenix? The Stars have been there longer, but otherwise, I doubt hockey is anymore traditional in Texas than it is in Arizona.
What about Minnesota, Winnipeg, Buffalo? These are all northern cities with huge hockey histories and giant fanbases and all of them lost or nearly lost their teams. The reason? Bad ownership.
My point here is that if a real hockey town can almost or actually lose it's team due to bad ownership, than what the hell is a team in a desert supposed to do when it's eternally crippled by that very thing?
When the Coyotes began, they played in a godawful converted Arena not meant for hockey. They they moved out of downtown. They went bankrupt. They were owned by the league. The whole time, one thing remained constant: Ownership was horrible. By my count there have been six owners Collangelo/Burke/Gluckstern, then just Burke, then Ellman/Gretzky, followed by Moyes, The NHL, and now Ice Arizona. That is enough owners to make the Oilers head coaching position seem stable.
Throughout all the owners, one thing remained: they couldn't make any money. There are several reasons for this: bad arenas, bad investors, bad deals, no salary cap, an untapped market, bad marketing etc. but the number one thing ruining all efforts to alleviate these correctable problems was that ownership was never stable.
But it is now. Like Pittsburgh, Winnipeg and Minnesota, stable ownership can save a team. There is every reason to think that that will be the case here too. If a real hockey market can't survive bad ownership, then surely it's not Arizona's fault that they have struggled. The market is huge and has shown several positive signs of coming around. People really do care about this team.
So far the ownership is still losing money, but they are on track to be profitable before their goal of three years is even up. They have shown that they will run their team like a hockey team (e.g Buying out Ribiero) and in closing, people need to understand that the team has never had a chance to be successful because as anyone who takes five minutes to figure it out knows, the #1 most important factor in having a successful team is stable ownership.
So, even though we are about to enter our 18th year as the Coyotes, it might as well be year 2 because that is how long there has been stable, responsible ownership. Think of that the next time you feel like making a snide comment about the team's viability.
Thanks for reading.