The Oilers effectively kicked off the Free Agent season in the NHL by doing something particularly unorthodox, and that’s turning the basic UFA signing strategy on its head. You see, Unrestricted Free Agents often find themselves getting paid primarily with extra term. Take Montreal Canadiens Defenseman Andrei Markov taking a shave off of what he could get elsewhere for a 3rd year on his most recent contract. No doubt he could have been paid more money in the short term but the number of teams willing to add a 3rd year drops significantly from those only offering 1 or 2. With Nikita Nikitin the Oilers paid a premium, 4.5M per season, for him to only be on the payroll for 2 years.
Edmonton found a Stop-Gap Defenseman in Nikitin but as a pending UFA there was no doubt that he would be overpaid. I saw and heard it suggested that 3 years at 3 Million would have been a comfortable number for most Oiler fans but while the two camps agreed on 9 Million as the final number, a lot of people are raising their eyebrows at the fact that the Oil only got 2 years of service for that price.
I don’t want to portray this as a brilliant move by the Oilers because it isn’t. What it is, however, is a calculated gamble on behalf of the organization that risks very little except Daryl Katz’ money. The Oilers are flush with Cap Space but wanting for NHL Defenseman. Their pipeline of prospects features Klefbom, Nurse, Gernat, Musil, and Simpson but the club wants them to earn roster spots based on merit instead of by default. Klefbom, by my eye, was overmatched in the NHL and it wouldn’t kill him to spend at least another half-season in the AHL. Nobody’s career was stunted by spending an extra couple of months dominating the minor leagues and Klefbom wasn’t even doing that.
Nikita Nikitin keeps those players from making the Oilers unless they truly out-perform tried and true NHL players. The 4.5 Million dollar a year investment is as much for his services and actual on-ice performance as it is an investment in the ongoing development of the team’s best prospects. And it’s a hefty investment.
As per CapGeek here is a list of just a few Cap Comparables for Nikitin:
Marc Vlasic, 4.25M Braydon Coburn, 4.5M Dan Hamhuis, 4.5M Kevin Bieksa, 4.6M Ryan McDonagh, 4.7M Lubomir Visnovsky, 4.75M
You’ll note that within 500k of Nikitin you can find A LOT of quality Defensemen of various ages and with more complete skillsets. I think it is fair to say that the big Russian brings the least to the table out of his peers at this price-point.
Back to the heart of this deal, the Oilers paid 9 Million dollars to Nikitin so they could get a solid top 4 player AND afford to develop their best talent without hurting themselves via the Cap. Despite his disproportionately high salary Edmonton are not at great risk to be in Cap trouble because they already have their best players locked up to what now look like reasonable deals and still have a load of space. There should still be roughly 15M in space to lock up 2 RFA defensemen and acquire a couple extra pieces at the forward position.
That should presumably also leave them able to go after a big fish UFA if at all possible and/or make a significant trade. Just looking at the player and the salary this deal wont make any sense. The picture starts to become a little more clear when you take a step back and see what this actually allows the Oilers to do moving forward.
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