Crushing losses to Montreal and New Jersey this weekend have sent observers of the Toronto Maple Leafs on a search for reasons why the club has declined from battling with the Canadiens and Tampa Bay for a top-three slot in the Atlantic Division to fighting for their lives for an Eastern Conference wild card spot.
Toronto was securely nestled in a playoff position after the 3-2 win over Los Angeles on March 13th, but after losing a season-high five games in a row, the Leafs probability of earning a post-season berth has death spiraled from 84.24% to 34.47% according to the website SportsClubStats.com.
What has caused this? Are the struggles of goaltender James Reimer or the disastrous debut season of David Clarkson at the heart of Toronto’s woes? Does GM Dave Nonis bear some fault for a lack of consistent secondary scoring or depth on the blueline? Is it the product of Randy Carlyle misusing his roster, not giving a fourth line significant ice time, shortening his bench and putting too much weight on the backs of Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk? Is this the Leafs chickens finally coming home to roost after playing three-quarters of the season with little or no concept of how to play team defense?
In short, it is all of these factors and not one by itself. If after the final nine games of the regular season, the Leafs find themselves on the outside looking in, there should not a singular scapegoat for this collapse, like dispatching Carlyle after two seasons and one month because of the “you can’t fire 23 players… argument. There has to be a reasonable distribution of blame and recrimination for the management, coaching staff and players.
To say that Reimer has looked unsure of himself during this five game losing skid would be a ridiculous understatement, but the Leafs former starter was shaky even when the team was playing well in front of him. Reimer had a 2.58 GAA and .931 save percentage in the first two months, but since Jonathan Bernier started making the majority of the starts in December, his goals against ballooned to 3.90 and his save percentage dropped to a subpar .891.
The club has hung their goaltender out to dry, as they continually allow quality scoring chances, odd man breaks and breakaways, but with the team floundering, Reimer has not been able to steal a game.
The Leafs team defense has been an unmitigated disaster for most of the season, surrendering the most goals(226) of any team occupying a playoff spot, which is a dramatic reversal from their improved play under Carlyle in 2013. The penalty killing has dropped from top five in the league during the lockout shortened season to 28th overall(with a league worst 75% success rate at home), making this season eerily similar to the haphazard days under Ron Wilson.
Carlyle has continually stressed and preached defensive responsibility and structure and the lack of both was covered up by Bernier, but with Reimer in goal, the loose play of Cody Franson and Jake Gardiner, the rookie mistakes of Morgan Rielly and the liabilities of the top line when they are not scoring are ending up in the Toronto net.
The offense led by Kessel, Bozak and van Riemsdyk were scoring at near superhuman levels in January and February, but were ghosts for most of the recent five-game road trip. Van Riemsdyk continues to struggle(1 G in the last 11 GP), while Kessel has begun to emerge from his slump(2 G in the last 3 GP). Joffrey Lupul, Nazem Kadri(1 G in their last 8 GP), Clarkson(1 G in the last 15 GP) and Nikolai Kulemin(1 G in last 16 GP) are not producing enough to take the burden of the top line.
What may be a factor going down the stretch is how Carlyle has distributed ice time. Due to their continuing trend of falling behind early(now seven straight games in which they have surrendered the opening goal), the Leafs have been forced to play their skilled players heavy minutes to catch up. In Newark on Sunday, Kessel, Bozak and van Riemsdyk all played over 25 minutes, while Phaneuf, Gardiner and Franson eclipsed the 20-minute mark.
Bottom six forwards such as Jay McClement and Troy Bodie are limited playing less than 10 minutes per night when the club is behind. Dave Bolland(just returning fron injury), Clarkson and Colton Orr not being able to play more contributes to efforts like the 5-3 loss to Tampa, when the Leafs top players looked gassed playing their third game in four nights.
Nonis has to take some heat for the depth and talent on the roster, Carlyle bears responsibility for not being able to get better performances out of his charges, but the same group of core players that were incapable or unwilling to play a two-way game that led to Wilson’s dismissal should not get another pass.
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Goaltender Jonathan Bernier practiced and took shots from a number of teammates at Air Canada Center on Monday, but Leafs coach Randy Carlyle says that the injured goaltender's status is still in question.
According to Sportsnet's Chris Johnston, Carlyle indicated that Bernier is making progress in his recovery from a groin strain suffered two weeks ago during the California leg of the club's five game road trip, but there is no guarantee that he'll be available for the Leafs next contest against the Western Conference leading St. Louis Blues on Tuesday.
Defenseman Paul Ranger also participated in the optional skate, taking to the ice for the first time since being hit from behind by Tampa forward Alex Killorn last Tuesday.
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