The best line on the team, heck one of the better lines in the league thus far, has been the aptly named "That 70's Line" for the L.A. Kings.
If you don't know who they are by now, it's Tanner Pearson (70) and Tyler Toffoli (73), centered by Jeff Carter (77). Our friends at the Royal Half have done their due diligence in making sure we don't forget the name, or the image.
The line has been the Kings most productive line by a mile. In fact, they have scored 8 of the Kings 10 even strength goals through five. The line is good for nearly two goals a game on average. They have yet to be on the ice for a goal against, and they are a combined +22. Even more impressive is that most of their production has come at even strength. That's pretty freaking good. How good? When compared to other team's top lines and players they stand up to the test.
Pittsburgh's top line of Crosby, Hornqvist, and Kunitz, have scored eight goals for the Penguins. However, just half of those have come at evens. (3 Hornqvist, 1 Crosby, 0 Kunitz) The have a +4 rating combined.
The Islanders, who are off to a very high paced start, have scored 13 goals at evens. Kyle Okposo, John Tavares, and Cory Conacher have been together as the top line for the majority of the season. Together they have put up 5 goals, and 3 at evens. Together they are a combined -1 rating. Might I also take this moment to mention that Brock Nelson and Ryan Strome are studs. Islanders fans should be so excited about these guys.
How about a West team? The San Jose Sharks maybe? Or the Ducks? The Ducks have been sticking either Patrick Maroon or Matt Belesky with Perry or Getzlaf. Maroon, however, has yet to score this season. Through 5 games, Getzlaf, Perry, and Belesky have a combined 10 goals, with 7 at evens. Thornton, Pavelski, and Herlt have scored 5 goals, 4 at evens.
So as you can see, the Carter, Pearson, Toffoli set up has been truly monstrous when compared to other top lines in the league and when you look at how important they have been to the Kings. This is wonderful to think about when you realize this isn't the Kings top line. Kopitar has been without a healthy Gaborik for the start of the season, and the rotation of Williams and Brown on the other wing hasn't quite been consistent yet. So it's definitely a fantastic thing that the 70's Line has been as good as they have been.
Not to rain on any parades, but I'm here to tell you that this probably won't stay this way.
Now I'm not here to tell you not to be excited about what has been a very productive and enjoyable line to watch, but temper the expectations a bit. I've already heard and seen some pretty serious predictions, like Toffoli and Pearson both being 30 goal scorers. That's pretty lofty. They have been great, but it's five games and that is definitely what you could categorize as "Small sample size." I know people will also point to their fine postseason, particularly against the Blackhawks, but they were only truly together and outstanding in that series. Other than that series, Sutter had a pretty steady rotation of moving both wingers up and down the roster, and shifting Jeff Carter from wing to center as he saw fit. This is the first time the line has been together on a consistent basis in a regular season scenario.
Looking at the possession stats they were the best line for the Kings against the Edmonton Oilers. They were the second best line, behind the 4th line, when they lost in OT to the Coyotes. They were also in the hunt for the best line on the ice along with the first line when the Kings womped the Winnipeg Jets. However, when you look at how they did against the Blues and the Sharks it's a pretty different story. The whole team was under 50% corsi against the Blues so it's hard to find fault with too much in what they did in that game. They were technically the best line for the Kings that night, but they were the best line with a negative corsi, in a game which they were out-possessed, out-attempted 46 to 70 and out-shot 18 to 43. Against the Sharks the line was the worst line on the ice and the only line to finish at a negative in chances and possession. Sutter hasn't been protecting their minutes either, as the line has seen zone starts of a fairly steady and mixed distribution. He hasn't favored offensive or defensive zone starts in any manner like you would see him do with the 4th line.
All in all, what you can say so far about That 70's line is that they have punished teams who aren't very deep at the forward position. When they have battled a legit team with a talented forward group things have gotten a little rough for them.
Which, hey, you can't really fault them too much for that. The lines they have faced in the Sharks and Blues games have been really good. Like good enough to be the top line on half of the teams in the league.
Marleau, Couture, and Nieto have been phenomenal thus far for the Sharks, as has the second line combo of Stastny, Tarasenko, and Jaden Schwartz for the Blues.
Those lines are on a whole different level compared to the others. I mean no offense to the following lines, but this is not Marleau, Couture, Nieto.
Pouliout, Arcobello, Yakupov Klinkhammer, Hanzal, Erat (Which battled them to about even on the night) line combo carousel in Winnipeg/Paul Maurice blenders of Little, Ladd, Byfuglien, Frolik, Thorburn etc. etc.
Competition hasn't been very high in those games.
That being said, they've had a fairly balanced relative QoC (quality of competition) which is good, but their PDO is through the roof. That stat represents on-ice shooting percentage vs. on-ice save percentage. It's very prone to heavy regression when it is above 1000, and all three of these guys are currently sitting in the 1200 range. All three are actually in the top 15 in the league in high PDO right now (Toffoli 7, Carter 13, Pearson 15.)
While I want to believe that this line is the next big thing for L.A., and that it will solidify them as a scoring threat up and down the lineup...there are just too many factors statistically that leads me to believe that the line is going to regress fairly heavily in the near future. Too many things are going right for them right now, and the competition has been equally helpful in that regard.
If you're playing fantasy I'd definitely say ride the hot hand, considering the Kings play Buffalo, Detroit, Carolina, and Philly in their next seven games. however, if you're making any sort of long term commitment to thinking this line will stay this hot, I'd say pull it back a little. That's not to say they haven't been an outstanding line so far. Pearson and Toffoli are really showing how great of draft selections they were. This is a number 30th overall, and a 2nd round, 47th overall selection, that are really coming into their own for the Kings. It again shows how well the Kings have done at getting their target player in the draft and making sure they bring them along the right way. Compare this to the Edmonton Oilers or the Carolina Hurricanes, each of which have had several high round draft picks but missed the mark on either development or overall selection in regards to the system. Kings seem to be nailing that on a regular basis these days.
As far as "That 70's Line" being a "thing" right now. I guess you could say they are the flavor of the month. Personally I am going to be giving them a much longer look than five games before I start believing. Maybe a month, maybe two. If this line is still clicking around Christmas then I will definitely be a believer. However, for the moment, the stats lead me to believe that we'll see a dip in the production soon. That is when we will see what that line is made of. You know, when they aren't shooting at an absolutely ridiculous combined 21.4 percent.
If the line continues to play well just consider this blog the reverse curse. Maybe the three of them will sit down after practice and say "Screw this Jason Lewis guy, we are going to keep scoring."
In that case you're welcome, Kings fans.
Regardless, they've been fantastic but I'll be surprised if they can keep up their league leading pace and quality. I'll be the first to happily admit I was wrong if this line is killing it at the new year, but I'm not counting on it.
Kings play a dreaded matinee game against the Minnesota Wild today at Staples before a three day layoff.
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