There are 12 banners hanging from the rafters of TD Garden that represent the team accomplishments in 89 years of Boston Bruins hockey. Six hang in honor of Stanley Cup championships, three list the Bruins’ division championships, two document the club’s Eastern Conference championship, and the lone black one represents the franchise’s Presidents’ Trophy seasons. Unlike the rest of the ‘second tier’ banners, there’s just one year listed on the last one. In 1989-90, the B’s tallied 101 points, tops in the league and enough for their lone Presidents’ Trophy.
But with 10 games to go, the Black-and-Gold are locked in an all out war with teams like the St. Louis Blues (currently ahead of the B’s by a single point) and the San Jose Sharks (behind Boston by one point but with two more games played) for the 2013-14 Presidents’ Trophy.
Given the Bruins’ remaining schedule, it’s not impossible to envision a scenario where they add a year to that banner, especially if they can finish this week on a high note with tough matchups against the Chicago Blackhawks and road contests against the Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers. But when push comes to shove, should they really care and go all out for it?
Well, with the recent freefall of the Pittsburgh Penguins, tame end to Boston’s season in terms of their opponents and surging play of the club, the B’s seem like a near lock for home-ice advantage throughout the first three rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, so that’s not really an issue.
Even so, with 32 wins in 47 games against Eastern Conference opponents this year, and with the second most road wins among East clubs, the building played in within the Eastern Conference doesn’t seem like much of an issue for Claude Julien’s squad.
This ain’t Julien’s first rodeo when it comes to chasing the Presidents’ Trophy, either.
It was in 2008-09 when the Bruins missed out on the trophy by just one won point to Joe Thornton and the San Jose Sharks, who had ironically beaten the B’s in regulation earlier that season, finishing the season with 116 points versus San Jose’s 117. (The Sharks were out in round one that year while the B’s were ousted by Carolina in a heart wrenching seven-game series in round two.)
So is going full bore for the final 10 games a moot point in Boston? Well, maybe not totally.
Over in the Western Conference, it seems that the Blues are the true heavy hitters of the conference. They’re also a team that the Bruins went 0-0-2 against this season, with one loss coming via the shootout (in Boston) and the other coming in the overtime frame during the Bruins’ lone visit to Scottrade Center this year. St. Louis, a team that’s loaded up for a deep run with the addition of Ryan Miller and Steve Ott, has won 25 of 34 home games this year, too.
Behind the Blues, other Western powerhouses like the Sharks, Anaheim Ducks, and Chicago Blackhawks have all taken care of business at their rink in 2013-14. San Jose’s dropped just 10 of 36 games at the Tank; the Ducks are 25-7-4 at the Pond; The ‘Hawks are 24-7-7 at the Madhouse.
Finishing with more points than any of these clubs guarantees a Stanley Cup Final that begins in Boston, if the Bruins are fortunate enough to make it that far (obviously). That’s an obvious plus given the record of the aforementioned West favorites when on the road versus in their building.
Point percentages (home vs. road)St. Louis: 79.4 point percentage at home, 67.1 point percentage on the road. San Jose: 79.2 point percentage at home, 60.5 point percentage on the road. Anaheim: 75 point percentage at home, 64.3 point percentage on the road. Chicago: 72.4 point percentage at home, 62.9 point percentage on the road.
When it comes to these four powers, the best drop off from being on the road to home is Chicago’s 9.5 point percentage on the road (62.9) versus at home (72.4). On average, there’s a 12.8 point percentage drop off between these clubs on the road versus at home. In the Stanley Cup Finals, that could be just one win for the home team. I don’t need to tell you the value of that.
And when given the benefit of last change, these teams have been able to outscore their opponents by significant margins. In fact, Chicago, St. Louis, and Anaheim are one, two, three in the NHL for goals scored at home. They’ve also been pretty good at keeping them out of their own net, too. Chicago has a plus-45 goal differential at home, St. Louis a plus-46, and Anaheim’s a plus-48.
Right behind those teams when it comes to home prowess? The Bruins. They’ve outscored opponents 118 to 65 this year (a plus-53 goal differential) en route to a 28-7-3 record at the TD Garden this year.
In essence, you’d prefer to have four of seven games in your barn if you play any of these teams.
Getting to the Cup won’t be as simple as crunching the admittedly favorable numbers though, and the B’s know that. That’s why their primary focus in a hectic month of March has been on taking their game to the level that’s taken them to two Stanley Cup Finals in the last three years.
“We want to build toward playoffs and playoff hockey. You have to be able to play through adversity, whether it’s travel or back-to-backs or long road trips, whatever it is,… Brad Marchand admitted. “Our team has done a good job just worrying about playing hockey and I’m not complaining about all the other stuff. All the other teams in the league are going through the same thing. As long as we’re prepared every night then we’re going to win some games.…
However, making a serious push for the Presidents’ Trophy is going to take a serious commitment from a few different angles, you’d think. You probably can’t sit Zdeno Chara, the 37-year-old captain that was completely gassed by last year’s Stanley Cup Final against Chicago, as much as you’d like. The same can be said for talents like Jarome Iginla, David Krejci, or anybody else in your top six forward core or top four defensive situation. Maybe you have to give Tuukka Rask a few more starts to keep pace with someone. Maybe Iginla or Torey Krug hit another bonus, muddying your cap situation in 2014-15 up just a bit more.
In the present, those would seem like minor adjustments, by in mid-June or next fall, could seem like a total waste if a Presidents’ Trophy comes at the cost of a heavier, prettier Cup.
But pushing for the Presidents’ Trophy could be even less of a concern for Boston given the recent luck or lack thereof of its winners come crunch-time. Since the 2005-06 season, only the 2007-08 Detroit Red Wings and 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks went on to win both the Presidents’ Trophy and the Stanley Cup. Surprisingly, half of the trophy’s winners (the ‘06 Wings, ‘09 Sharks, ‘10 Capitals, and ‘12 Vancouver Canucks) have been out in the first round. Its other post-lockout (‘04) winners include the 2006-07 Buffalo Sabres, who were bounced in the Eastern Conference Finals that year, and the 2010-11 Canucks, the team that fell to the Black-and-Gold in a seven-game war for Lord Stanley.
In most cases, a Presidents’ Trophy doesn’t necessarily equate out to a Cup parade.
But if everything falls into place this year, it just might.