Having arrived back from the east coast trek, the separation that existed between the Kings and the final wild card places has stayed consistent. With most teams having just 6-8 games left out West it looks like the Kings are destined to play one of either the Ducks or the Sharks.
Currently the two team teams sit a point apart atop the Pacific division. Winner will likely nab Phoenix, while the loser will have to begrudgingly accept a date with the LA Kings. I can guarantee you that neither team is looking forward to a potential match-up with the Kings, who are always a difficult draw in a seven-game series.
Forget about what they are thinking, who are we thinking is a better match-up for the Kings in the first round? Let's be honest, in all likelihood the Kings will end up playing both due to the current playoff format, but who do you want first?
Here is just a little info to consider when thinking about it.
Anaheim
The Kings have had a very frustrating go with the Ducks this season, but that's not to say they have been dominated by the SoCal neighbor.
The Kings are 1-3-0 against Anaheim with the only victory coming in a shootout back on December 3rd. The teams are going to play one final time this season on April 12th, the last day of the Kings' season.
Despite a rather dismal record, the Kings have actually played very good games against the Ducks but have been thwarted by the classic problem of not being able to finish chances. In fact, the four games the Kings have played against the Ducks rank inside the top 20 of of the season in terms of corsi and possession numbers. (6th, 8th, 12th, 17th).
They have also destroyed the Ducks in shots during those games. The Ducks have only broken 21 shots once against the Kings. The averages are as different as night and day. Really. It's startling. The Ducks have allowed 37.5 shots a night on average against the Kings while putting up only 22.5 of their own.
So where have the Kings faltered? You might say special teams. The Kings powerplay has converted just once against the Ducks in 15 attempts, but on the other side of things the Ducks have converted only twice on 16 attempts.
The Kings have been ridiculously unlucky and snake-bitten against the Ducks it seems. Having watched all four games with the teams playing each other this year, no doubt I can list three of them as some of the most frustrating games of the year for the Kings.
Also take into consideration that Anaheim has gone through a pretty significant change in form as of late in comparison to their early season dominance.
They still have some of the most dynamic and dangerous players in the league with Perry and Getzlaf. They also have some extremely talented young players in Fowler, Lindholm, Bonino, and Palmieri. Definitely credit the Ducks goaltending as well, which has been absolutely phenomenal against the Kings.
With all this in mind do we roll the dice with a potentially frustrating seven-game series. All the numbers are in favor of the Kings except for the ones that matter: Goals and wins.
San Jose
Where the numbers in the Kings-Ducks series have been relatively one-sided for the Kings, the Shark-Kings series has been MUCH closer.
The Kings are 3-0-1 against the San Jose, but have had real fights on their hands almost every game. Three of the games the teams have played have shown up as nearly dead even in the possession numbers, while the fourth had the Kings taking those numbers slightly.
Get this, after four games the teams are separated in shot totals by one solitary shot. Two of the games the teams have played have come up dead even in shots. The shots per game average comes out in favor of the Kings 29.0 to 28.7 over the course of the four games played. The special teams have also been relatively even, with the Sharks going 1-for-14 and the Kings going 2-for-16.
These games, aside from the 4-1 thumping the Kings gave the San Jose on December 19th have been a coin flip. Where the Ducks games have been much closer than the record indicates for the Kings, that same theory is true for the Sharks in this case. These games have been very close.
San Jose also matches up well with the Kings with a solid amount of depth down the center. As it currently stands the Sharks and the Kings are No. 1 and No. 2 in the league at the dot.
With so much similarity between the two, the difference in the standings has to be attributed to the dismal January the Kings had. Otherwise, they could be competing for the division title along with both Anaheim and San Jose.
Which One?
On paper it seems like an easy choice right? The Ducks. Every day and twice on Sunday, the Ducks. It would be a less physically exhausting series for the Kings, as Anaheim doesn't play nearly as physical as San Jose and aren't nearly as big. BUT, there is that question that keeps coming back to me.
Do you want to play the team that has had all the bounces, had all the success, and frustrated you all season again? Do you want to play them in a seven-game series? You often see this from year to year. One team just simply has the other team's number. A few years ago the Kings could not beat Nashville to save their lives despite the Preds having a middling season. This year the Kings just can't seem to beat the Ducks, even when playing some exceptional hockey.
Then you have the Sharks, who have been slow starters in the past in the post-season. Last year they gave the Kings a helluva time, and there is no doubt in my mind that a series this year would produce more of the same.
Honestly I'd take that in the second round rather than the first.
Each series would have its own narrative and feel, and once you get into the dance anything is possible. Do I like the matchup of the Kings-Ducks better than the Kings-Sharks? Yes I do. Does that guarantee anything? Not at all.
That's why they play the game on ice and not in theory.
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Side bar here,
Can we talk about how white hot Alec Martinez has been lately?
While 18 points in 54 games isn't a huge amount of points, the 26-year old has 11 of them in his last 14 games. He has essentially played Matt Greene out of a lineup spot at this point.
Also, more of this please:
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