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The 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs kick off tonight with the Pittsburgh Penguins taking on the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Let’s not waste any time, lets break down this series.
Forwards
Lets start with the top 6 forwards for the Columbus Blue Jackets
Jenner-Johansen-Skille Calvert- Dubinsky-Atkinson
I need to preface this by saying that Nick Foligno and RJ Umberger are not included because they are not able to play in Game 1 because of injury. It is expected that they will return at some point during the series. Nathan Horton will not be in the mix, he is out 6-8 weeks.
The Blue Jackets have some youth on the rise mixed in with a guy like Dubinsky who plays physical while maintaining the ability to contribute offensively.
The key here is that the Blue Jackets youth is still on the rise and has not reached their potential yet, specifically Jenner and Atkinson. In 2 years that might be a different story, but for right now they haven’t hit their peak.
Ryan Johansen is the only dynamic goal scorer in this group; he had 33 goals this season. His current linemates have combined for 20 goals this year. In fact, Johansen has more goals this year than Skille does in his career. Skille has scored only 24 goals since 2007-2008 when he broke into the league.
Contrast this with the Penguins top 6 forward grouping and you can see just how short the Blue Jackets are on top end firepower.
Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett Jokinen-Malkin-Neal
This unit was responsible for 369 points this season while the Blue Jackets current grouping only 210.
This is the strength of the Penguins team. These two lines can generate offense against any line in the NHL. Sidney Crosby dusted the competition with 104 points even though Dan Bylsma used him in a shutdown role. Sidney Crosby is more than used to seeing the opposition’s best and he is more than used to succeeding against the best.
Evgeni Malkin’s return to the lineup will restore the Penguins ability to ice two premier scoring lines.
If either line catches fire it is enough to win hockey games alone.
Huge advantage to Pittsburgh in this area, even when Umberger and Foligno come back.
Bottom 6
MacKenzie- Anisimov- Comeau Tropp- Letestu-Boll. Frattin
This is where the Blue Jackets can pick up some ground on the Penguins. The Blue Jackets have better forward depth; they just don’t have high end forwards. When Umberger and Foligno return to the lineup this will have a trickledown effect and this grouping will improve.
The Blue Jackets can actually have expectations with their bottom 6 forwards. Depth is where the Blue Jackets have to take advantage. They need to get under the skin of the Penguins top 6 forwards and make them ineffective, then their bottom 6 depth can outplay Pittsburgh’s.
Glass-Sutter-Stempniak Gibbons-Vitale-Adams Megna-Pyatt
This does not have the look of a Stanley Cup champion bottom 6 unit at the present moment. The Penguins have such a great top 6 that the need for the bottom 6 to produce offense is lowered slightly when compared with other teams. This does not mean that the bottom 6 can afford to sit back and just prevent goals (which they struggle with as well).
The Penguins desperately need to get Marcel Goc back into the equation. Until Goc gets back it would probably better serve the Penguins to use Brian Gibbons with Sutter and Stempniak. Gibbons has been effective in his playing time with the 3rd line for the past month. He has good speed and draws a decent amount of penalties.
Tanner Glass throws a lot of hits and that is usually one of the areas that people point to as a bonus in playoff hockey. In some cases it is a very nice asset to have, in the case of Tanner Glass most of his hits are late and after the puck has already been moved on. He is then left being caught deep in the zone. His hits are mostly ineffective. His possession numbers are also miserable.
Penguins should “load… up the 4th line with all of their dead weight and protect the hell out of them until Goc is healthy again.
The good news for the Penguins is that they should be alive in the playoffs long enough for Goc to make his return.
Bottom 6 forwards is a clear advantage for the Blue Jackets, especially when Foligno and Umberger make their return.
When taking into consideration just how dynamic the Penguins top 6 forwards are I have to give Pittsburgh the edge in the forward department.
Defense
This has been a rough season for the Penguins on defense. They have rarely had the opportunity to show off their full complement of defensemen. Lucky for them one of the few times they will be able to do so is at the start of these Stanley Cup Playoffs. What was a weakness for the past 3 months, now shifts back to a strength.
Orpik-Martin Scuderi-Letang Maatta-Niskanen
Each pairing has at least one quality puck moving defenseman. Orpik is paired with ol' reliable Paul Martin and Rob Scuderi has the benefit of playing with the Penguins most dynamic defenseman in Kris Letang. Rob Scuderi played well with Drew Doughty in LA, Letang is as close to Doughty as he is going to get for the rest of his career. The Doughty-Scuderi pairing was LA's top defense pairing when they won the Stanley Cup.
Olli Maatta and Matt Niskanen were being overexerted for a stretch of time because of the injuries, they can now slide back into their bottom pairing role where they excelled this season. This is a terrific "bottom pairing".
The Blue Jackets defense cannot match the Penguins
Tyutin-Johnson Murray- Wisniewski Nikitin- Savard
Ryan Murray and James Wisniewski is not a bad pairing, it is very likely that will be the pairing that sees the most action against Sidney Crosby’s line. Ryan Murray is at the beginning of what should be a long and promising career and James Wisniewski is a solid veteran defenseman who can move well and contribute to the offense.
The issues for the Blue Jackets are going to come when Jack Johnson has to go up against the Malkin unit. Fedor Tyutin is decent enough, but he isn’t good enough to drag around the dead weight that is Jack Johnson. This will be a mismatch that the Penguins expose.
The Penguins also have the advantage at the defense position
Goaltending
This is the biggest mismatch that plays into the Blue Jackets favor. Sergei Bobrovsky is the better goalie in this series. Marc Andre Fleury carries with him all the question marks that he has earned through the last 2 postseasons.
While Bobrovsky is a clear cut advantage for the Blue Jackets his wiggle room for error is almost nonexistent. For the Blue Jackets to take advantage of this matchup Bobrovsky is going to have to play to his ceiling. He will need to be hovering around the .935-.940% range to carry his team.
Marc Andre Fleury doesn’t need to hit that kind of ceiling. All he needs to do is get around the .915% range and it should be plenty good enough for the Penguins. I honestly think Fleury has a better chance at hitting those numbers than Bobrovsky does his.
So the Blue Jackets have the advantage in goal, but they need their guy to do a heck of a lot more to obtain the same results that the Penguins can get from average play.
Columbus has a significant advantage in goal, but I'm not sure it will play out as big of an advantage as a lot of people think. Bobrovsky has too little room for error.
None the less, advantage Columbus.
Special Teams
Penguins have the #1 power play in the NHL and they will have all of their options available to them starting the playoffs. This is a potential gamebreaker for any team that plays against them. If the Penguins power play gets on a roll it can be a free 1-3 goals per game.
The Blue Jackets penalty kill is not terrible, in fact it is pretty OK (14th overall 82.5%) but the Penguins have the ability to sting any PK group in the league with their talent on the power play. This is a clear advantage for the Penguins.
The Penguins penalty kill is a top 5 unit (5th overall 85.0%) in the NHL based on numbers but I believe they are a paper tiger. They were riding an insanely high shorthanded save percentage from Marc Andre Fleury (.936%). This has since dropped to .911%. The Penguins have given up a plethora of power play goals where the opposition forwards are able to plant themselves in front of MAF and bang home the rebounds.
Having Kris Letang and Paul Martin back on the PK will certainly help.
The Columbus power play is 11th overall at 19.3% and certainly has the ability to cash in on the man advantage. I believe the Blue Jackets power play and the Penguins penalty kill are a wash and even each other out.
Given the huge mismatch that the Penguins power play will give the Blue Jackets penalty kill I will award the advantage to the Penguins on special teams.
Stat of the series:
If I could direct your attention to the left side of this possession chart you will see a lot of bars that head in the north direction. That was the last time the Penguins had the same healthy roster that they have right now. They were a top 5 possession team in the league with this roster.
Since then we all know about the 500 man games lost to injury. You can see the impact those injuries had with all the bars that head south as you move right on the chart.
The Penguins are healthy again and their on ice product is going to resemble the far left side of the chart again. This isn’t the same Penguins team that has been playing for a majority of the season.
The Penguins are entering the playoffs with their best on ice roster they have had all season long. Sure there are still some question marks about the bottom 6 forward grouping and Marc Andre Fleury, but most teams in the East other than Boston have some warts.
I am picking Pittsburgh over Columbus in 5 games. I think the Penguins will play at the highest level they have all year and the Blue Jackets will not be able to match that.
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Picking winners for the Stanley Cup Playoffs this year is almost an impossible task, especially in the Western Conference this year, but I will try to do so anyways.
I believe that the Colorado Avalanche and Anaheim Ducks are very fortunate to be in the spots they are in right now. They deserve full marks for earning their playoff seed, but I don’t view them as legitimate threats even though I believe both will make it through round 1. Regardless of what teams they face in round 2 they will be huge underdogs in my opinon.
Two teams out of the Kings, Sharks, Blues, and Blackhawks are going home after round 1, that is crazy.
Colorado over Minnesota in 6 Anaheim over Dallas in 6 San Jose over LA in 7 Chicago over St. Louis in 6
In the East things aren’t quite as crazy but there is no shortage of interesting matchups.
Pittsburgh over Columbus in 5 NYR over Philadelphia in 6 Boston over Detroit in 6 Montreal over Tampa in 7
Western semifinals
Chicago over Colorado in 5 San Jose over Anaheim in 6
Eastern Semifinals
Pittsburgh over New York in 7 Boston over Montreal in 6
Conference Finals
Boston over Pittsburgh in 6 San Jose over Chicago in 7
Stanley Cup Final
San Jose over Boston in 6
Joe Pavelski is your 2014 Conn Smythe Award winner.
That’s how I see it. Feel free to bookmark the page and let me know how bad I screwed these predictions up. I already know they aren’t going to be correct because that is how incredibly unpredictable this year’s playoffs are going to be.
The Sharks have just as good of a chance to lose in round 1 as they do winning the Stanley Cup.
Lastly, regardless of your rooting interests or where your allegiances lie, the best sports tournament on the globe is starting tonight, enjoy the ride.
2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs are here.
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Jesse Marshall of the Faceoff-Factor has once again put a playoff roundtable together of folks who cover the Pittsburgh Penguins. This year I was lucky enough to be included on the roundtable. There are a lot of terrific voices from the Penguins community including the former excellent Hockeybuzz Penguins writer Brian Metzer (@Brian_Metzer).
You can find the roundtable here.
Thanks for reading!
Follow me on twitter Follow @GunnerStaal