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The Penguins and Blue Jackets will clash for Game 4 of their 1st round series in Columbus tonight. Pittsburgh will look to put a death grip on the series and Columbus will be looking to make this a best of 3 matchup.
In previous blogs I have documented that the Penguins are finding success at even strength on the possession front. They will need to continue down that path in order to put away the Blue Jackets in short order.
I think it is imperative the Penguins win tonight and get through this round 1 series against Columbus as fast as possible. Columbus has been playing with a high motor the entire series and they have also been extremely physical. Physical hockey takes a toll in the playoffs and the fewer games the Penguins are subjected to the Blue Jackets heavy hits, the better chance they stand at making a run in the postseason.
The Penguins need optimal health if they are going to go anywhere significant this postseason. Right now they are not at optimum health. Marcel Goc is still out with his ankle injury and Brian Gibbons is day to day with an upper body injury sustained in Game 2.
A big reason why I believe Chris Kunitz does not look like himself is because he is laboring with an injury. I think that injury stems from his collision with the goal post about a month back. The Penguins did their best to try and give him rest down the stretch, but it still appears there are some lingering issues. Best case scenario for Kunitz would be a Penguins series win in 5 games and the Flyers and Rangers going through an epic 7 game clash. The more rest time the better for Kunitz and the Penguins need a top notch Kunitz to do any damage.
Paul Martin is 7th overall in TOI per game in these playoffs at 28:50. He is also the sole owner of 3rd place in playoff scoring with 6 points. Only Paul Statsny and Nathan MacKinnon have more with 7 points each. Given that Paul Martin’s body has been beaten up so much and he has missed so much time this year to injury, he too could benefit from some rest. It’s pretty clear with Letang’s struggles that he will be given the biggest workload for the Penguins this postseason. Martin and Orpik looked great in Game 3, a very good sign moving forward.
Here are 3 most important things that I think will contribute to a Penguins victory tonight and increase their chances of a short series:
1. Maintain the possession advantage at even strength. This is an area of the game that Stanley Cup Champions excel at. Chicago finished the playoffs last year with a Fenclose of 54.9% and LA finished their Cup run with 54.1%. In the small sample size so far in the 2013-2014 playoffs the Penguins are at 54.1%. The key will be maintaining this quality of possession throughout each round. The only way to do this is to get productive play from the bottom 6 forward group. The only way the Penguins are going to do that is to be fully healthy. Winning games like tonight provide opportunity to get healthy.
2. Tangible results from the top 6. The Penguins top 6 forward grouping is playing well, they just don’t have the goals and assists to back it up right now. Eventually you need to take advantage of playing well by cashing in on the scoresheet. Crosby, Malkin, Kunitz, and Neal have 0 goals. Having a 2-1 series lead with none of those 4 players scoring a goal is somewhat of a positive for Pittsburgh. It speaks to secondary scoring, a perceived weakness the Penguins had entering the playoffs. However, the Penguins will only go as far as the stars take them this year. I believe once the big guns break their goose egg they won’t look back. It is most likely that Sidney Crosby will go up against Jack Johnson once again, law of averages will win out at some point.
3. Power Play. This ties in with number 2, chances are if the forwards mentioned above find the scoresheet a lot of times it will be via the power play. Yesterday I ripped on the Penguins power play and for good reason. The power play is something that can be an x factor for the Penguins. As of this moment the Penguins power play has been an x factor for the Blue Jackets. The Blue Jackets have 2 shorthanded goals and the Penguins have gone 1 for 14 on the man advantage the past two games.
Quality even strength play may not always yield goals, but what it can do is draw penalties and it has. The Penguins lead the playoffs in power play opportunities with 17. The Penguins have wasted their opportunities to this point in the series. If the Penguins continue to outplay Columbus at even strength they will continue to draw more penalties, if the power play starts to click, goodnight Columbus.
When a team like the Penguins has big aspirations such as winning the Stanley Cup, they need to take care of business in a game like tonight. Teams that can't close out series in a timely fashion risk being knocked out and also risk further injury. Penguins need to douse any hope the Blue Jackets have tonight.
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