One thing I've been doing a lot of lately is tracking data for prospects playing in the CHL.
Even strength play is obviously extremely important given most of every game is played in that situation, so I graphed the even strength data for New Jersey Devils prospects playing in the CHL.
Below you'll find even strength points, as well as even strength goal differential. The differential is calculated simply by counting on-ice goals for at evens, and dividing that number by the number of goals against Player X was out for.
Powerhouse teams and poor teams tend to inflate/deflate numbers for goal differential, so it's important to put them in context. If you mention the GD numbers relative to teammates, which I'll do below the graph, then it can be useful information in seeing just how effective Player X was at even strength.
Some takeaways from the graph:
- The first thing that stands out to me is Graham Black's ability to produce at even strength. He was an overage player so he's supposed to post quality numbers, but I think any time a player can post a point per game at evens alone you have to be impressed. Black's goal differential was also 2nd on his team among forwards with more than 40 games played, so he was impressive in that regard as well. I'm real interested to see how he progresses in Albany next season.
- Ben Thomson, who the Devils recently signed to an entry-level contract, was also an overage player, but posted pretty impressive numbers. They were a little deflated because he started his season playing for a very poor team in the Kitchener Rangers, but once he was traded to North Bay he really kicked it into gear. He was able to post respectable point totals at even strength, and was a huge part of their run to the OHL Final. Thomson's goal differential in 40+ games with North Bay was also the highest on the team. Like with Black, I'm interested to see how his game translates to the AHL. He's a big, strong player who can skate so I think he'll make the transition nicely.
- Ubber-talented draft eligible forward Josh Ho-Sang and Brady Vail, who the Canadiens elected not to sign for some reason, were the only regulars in Windsor's lineup who posted better goal differential numbers than Ben Johnson. Like Thomson, Johnson also recently signed with the Devils. Johnson posted respectable numbers at evens and proved to be a threat in that situation. He took a big step forward offensively this past season.
- Myles Bell is another overage player who fared well with his CHL team in 2013-14, though he was more impressive in 2012-13. Bell's goal differential numbers relative to his teammates were below average, and his even strength production, though still good, took a hit compared to last season. He suffered a season ending injury early in the playoffs and he hasn't been signed yet, so it'll be interesting to see what the Devils elect to do with him. He's not junior eligible next season, so he'd have to play pro hockey.
- Sticking with the Kelowna Rockets, Damon Severson had one helluva season. He posted the 3rd highest goal differential on his team while playing huge minutes against tough competition every night. Not only that, but he posted 40 points at even strength which is pretty darn impressive for a defensemen, especially in the WHL which is lower scoring than the OHL and QMJHL. Severson's progression since being drafted has been excellent, and he looks to be well on his way to a long NHL career.
- Ryan Kujawinski was the Devils prospect that disappointed me a little this season. He's very talented and smart with the puck, but he didn't produce as much as expected playing for a high-powered Kingston team. He fought some injuries throughout the year which definitely didn't help, but his point totals at even strength are pretty disappointing for a guy who has top-6 upside. His goal differential was also in the lower 3rd relative to his Kingston teammates. I expect him to bounce back next season if he can stay healthy, but overall this wasn't a very encouraging season for him.
For the most part Devils prospects played quite well in junior this season. With Black, Thomson, and Bell all graduating it'll be fun to see how they progress in pro hockey. I also look forward to seeing how the rest of the guys progress in junior next season, as well how new prospects the Devils draft from the CHL in a few weeks perform.
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I graphed prospect data for several other NHL teams, as well as data on some of the top draft eligible prospects in this year's draft. You can find that here.
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