It wouldn’t be the beginning of Hockey season if Nail Yakupov rumors weren’t swirling around the NHL like mad. In this day and age of coverage trade rumors are a part of everyday life for Professionals. For example Evander Kane has been rumored out of Winnipeg from the moment the nation’s mosquito capital got their franchise back. It’s not that Nail Yakupov’s name is out there again that I take issue, it’s with his trade value being next to NIL.
THE GAMBLE
When the Oilers set out to draft the BPA no matter the consequences there was always going to be the risk that their team may need to be altered via a trade. The theory behind taking the BPA is that teams cannot draft for their present needs since those are always fluid and can be addressed via other means. Taking a big Center today because your team already has a bunch of speedy small guys is how you get MA Pouliot instead of Zach Parise (pronounced Pah-Ree-Zay no matter what he claims otherwise).
So there was always a risk that the Oilers might have to trade one of their high octane youngsters down the road for something that fit, but since those kids were in all likelihood the best players in their draft classes it was going to be a big haul anyway. It was a risk the team took because drafting by need had failed them so often in the past, and in the specific case of Nail Yakupov the alternative was to take a Defenseman.
Drafting a defender with a lottery pick isn’t exactly a crapshoot because history tells us you are likely to get a serviceable NHL player, but the ability to project their upper limits are significantly lower compared to forwards. It was a safer bet to assume that Nail Yakupov, who scored at a prolific rate in Jr (especially before a knee injury slowed him down), would be a high end forward than it was to assume Ryan Murray would be a high end Defenseman. Not to mention those Defensemen generally take longer to develop.
Victor Hedman is an incredible player who hasn’t yet gotten his due for what he has become, but it seemed more touch and go with him than it did the other 2 players drafted in the top 3 of the 2009 Draft. In 2008 Zach Bogosian was taken ahead of Pietrangelo. Both are NHL players, one is a star. And let’s never forget that Cam Barker was taken directly behind Ovechkin and Malkin in 2004.
I’m not suggesting that taking Ryan Murray would have immediately been a mistake, but the risk was greater than taking the consensus best player in the Draft. Now this takes me back to where the Oilers are today. The Oil are finally deep in Defensive prospects, heavy on the wings, and lacking at Center.
THE PROBLEM
If there was going to be a time when a trade from the young talent pool was needed to bolster the lineup now would be that time.
Except there’s a problem.
It seems as though exactly 2 seasons into Nail Yakupov’s career, one in which he won the Rookie scoring race and one in which he struggled under a new coach, the former 1st Overall pick is now apparently worth next to nothing. The collective valuation of this player has gone into the tank, which is strange because he has comparable career numbers to a couple other high picks in his age range.
For example, not long ago it was Bruins writer Joe Haggerty suggesting Boston trade pending UFA 2nd pairing Defender and Edmonton product Boychuk for Nail Yakupov. This would perhaps go down as one of the worst trades in Oiler history. The Oilers are finally flush with 2nd pairing defenders (it used to be 3rd pairing guys) and with plenty more coming through the system. Nail Yakupov has the physical tools and the pedigree to suggest he could score 35+ goals in the NHL in the near future and he’s on his ELC.
Nail Yakupov had a brutal season in terms of his on-ice save percentage (completely out of his control) leading to his terrible +/- (a stat nobody should use but which is the first thing that gets mentioned with Yakupov) and his scoring numbers dipped along with a couple other high profile 2nd year players. Jonathan Huberdeau won the Calder Trophy despite losing the scoring race to a player drafted a year after him; his NHL Career totals are comparable. Galchenyuk could have competed for 1st Overall in his draft year but injury limited his games played during his eligible season; his numbers are comparable.
Huberdeau 117GP 23-36-59 0.504p/g Galchenyuk 113GP 22-36-58 0.513p/g Yakupov 111GP 28-27-55 0.495p/g
This is the TOI average for the 3 players in each of their 2 seasons
Huberdeau 1) 16:55 2) 15:39 Galchenyuk 1) 12:19 2) 14:23 Yakupov 1) 14:33 2)14:18
These players are within a stone’s throw of each other in every regard except ice time, in which Huberdeau has been granted much more than the others, but I have yet to hear any ridiculous trade rumours about Huberdeau or Galchenyuk. Neither of them have been labelled a bust either. Darren Dreger wouldn’t dream of suggesting the Leafs wouldn’t even trade Reimer for the Habs youngster and Joe Haggerty hasn’t dreamed up trading Chris Kelly plus a 4th for Huberdeau.
Yet here we are in September and a player with almost the exact same career numbers and still on his entry level deal is apparently hardly worth a 2nd pairing defender that the Oilers don't even need? Forgive me if I think now would be a terrible time to give up on a player like Yakupov.
His value around the league is apparently so low that everyone seems to believe he's available for exactly the last things the team actually needs. If that's his perception among the 29 other GMs then there is no reason to move him at all.
Said in another way, if team X isn't willing to give up a C that has similar upside to a player who very recently won the rooking scoring race or is unquestionably better than Leon Draisaitl then the Oilers have no business trading Nail Yakupov.
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