Heading into the Olympics, most had Sweden, Canada, the US and Russia as their favorites. In addition, Finland was the hot sleeper, as we sit just a few hours from the semis, three of the four favorites and that sleeper, who knocked you a pre-tournament favorite, have a shot at the gold medal. You can make a strong case for any of the four teams to win two games and the whole shebang while each matchup is a rematch from the past two Olympic Finals.
In the prelim for many of us, Sweden, backstopped by Henrik Lundqvist and supported offensively by Carl Hagelin, take on Finland. Both teams entered the tournament with injuries, as Sweden was missing a Sedin and Franzen while Finland was without Koivu. Both squads saw another key member go down, with Zetterberg and Barkov now sidelined, yet that's done little to slow their advancement.
For Sweden, no one player has really stepped up, as Erik Karlsson has just been his usual offensive weapon, unless you believe OEL has taken his game up a major notch. To me, it's been a collective effort that has led them to the semis, though Lundqvist has one again been stellar between the pipes with a pair of shutouts. For Finland, while Tuukka Rask has been good, they have been buffeted by a pair of skaters that have burst on the scene. Mikael Granlund and Olli Maatta have taken their games to another level with Granlund notching five points in four games and Maatta contributing two goals and two assists.
I think to many, Finland has become the new darling of the media, giving them the sentimental edge. Offensively, they have weapons, but I think Sweden has more, which ultimately proves to be the difference. In addition, (updated - with Rask a late scratch due to the flu and Kari Lehtonen now between the pipes), Lundqvist has done it before on this stage and I think Sweden moves on 3-1.
Now for the main course, US-Canada. Any time the two countries meet, it's going to be heated and draw major interest. Add in a berth in the gold medal round and that takes it up a notch. Then also throw what transpired in the woman's final Thursday and it moves to a whole other level.
What also has to be considered, and to me this is a major component, is the status of each in the hockey world. The US is still trying to establish their place in the hockey elite. While they may have done so on paper, perceptions are hard to change. They are viewed as the little and new kid on the block. While nice and a new flavor, they still have to take a back seat to the king of the hill, which is Canada. The team from the north have the legacy and history and are in now way ready to cede that to the neighbors to the south. For the US to truly place their stamp on the hockey world and move the needle to closer to 50-50, they will have to take it from Canada, and a win Friday would go a long way towards that endeavor.
Travis Yost wrote a great blog on the match up (http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Travis-Yost/Five-Olympic-Thoughts/134/58114). To me, we can talk about puck possession, which Canada despite scoring has been very good in, and shooting percentages, which leans heavily to the US, but in a game like this, stats almost can be thrown out the window. I will say that the US looks to have the due up front, but with Crosby and the Getzlaf/Perry duo, that edge can turn quickly. For Canada to win, they will need to pressure the weak links of the US blue line. The Martin-Orpik pairing, as Travis wrote, hasn't matched the okay of the other two lines. The last change, which the US earned for getting the second seed, will be key like Travis indicated, as coach Dan Byslma may be able to spot that duo and keep them away from certain match ups.
As I wrote in my prior blog, as good as Drew Doughty and Shea Weber have been, scoring seven of Canada's 13 goals, it's possible Bylsma splits up Ryan McDonagh and Ryan Suter to match up against the two Canadian d-man, I think you should keep your best pair together and worry about matching them up against the Crosby line, but I could see Shattenkirk with McDonagh and Fowler with Suter to allow each one of the Mack-Suter duo to mark one of the Canadian duo. One key to consider is that McDonagh and Suter each can log heavy minutes, which will allow Bylsma to maybe spit in Martin and Orpik with Fowler and Shattenkirk also seeing a ton of ice time.
The Meat line, though I prefer BBC, Brown-Backes-Callahan will be key, as they will be used to be physical against whoever they are on against while generating offense. I expect to see lots of time against Crosby, especially if Nash is added to the line, but wouldn't be shocked if they go against Getzlaf and Perry to try and counteract their size. if that happens, you could see the Kessel-JvR line go against Crosby in a match up of high-powered offensive lines or the Parise-Kesler-Kane trio utilized against them so that Kesler can try and body Crosby while Parise and aka e have the speed to keep up with whoever is on the wing.
I am not about to use hyberbole like a Matt Henderson or James Tanner did, as that is not my style and it works for them. Not much hype is needed here, and if it is, just start ending twitter early this morning, during and after the game, and you will get as much as you need. My prediction is a heart one but also balanced by what I honestly think, I expect a close, one -goal game much of the night with a bit more scoring that expected. I think the US will be nursing a 4-3 lead late and Jonathan Quick will have a to make a big save to preserve the win in the final minute but the US will prevail.
Should be a great day of hockey. Enjoy!!