In this blog I will attempt to correctly pick the results of an unpredictable tournament.
Predicting a short, single elimination tournament like Olympic hockey is mostly guess work. A majority of the teams have a high quality roster with a decent amount of NHL talent. Very few teams can be considered complete pretenders. Given the high talent levels on every team it boils down to who gets hot and who does not.
Any team can have a bad day on the wrong day. Any team can have a great day on the right day. This is why Olympic hockey is so fascinating, anything can happen. Advanced stats are good at predicting results for large sample sizes (full seasons) but they are limited in their ability to predict a short, single elimination tournament. To predict the Olympics you have to base things off of your gut feeling. There is no exact science to it.
I will break down each division and where I think each will finish within their grouping. In parentheses will be that country’s seeding for the single elimination portion of the tournament. Group A USA (2) Russia (4) Slovakia (8) Slovenia (12) Group B Canada (1) Finland (5) Norway (9) Austria (10) Group C Sweden (3) Czech Republic (6) Switzerland (7) Latvia (11)
Here is how I think the bracket will play out. Let the debate begin:
I don’t have any surprises in the qualification playoff round. All the favorites move on to the quarterfinals.
In the quarterfinals I have all the division winners (and Russia) moving on. Finland certainly has the potential to put a scare in Russia but it’s not in the cards this time around.
Switzerland is a feisty tournament team but I believe the speed of the United States and its goaltending will prevail without much of a threat from the Swiss. Sweden and Canada will not be tested in either matchup. Anything can happen in the semifinals with the 4 teams I have left. Canada, USA, Sweden, and the host Russians are all more than capable of taking home the Gold Medal. I have the host Russians defeating the very talented Canadian squad. I believe Russia will return the favor from Vancouver. Much like how the Canadians dispatched the Russians on home soil, I think the Russians remember that defeat all too well and this time get the job done. The Malkin, Ovechkin, and Semin line will play their best game of the tournament. In the other semifinal I have the Swedes dropping a tough decision to the Americans. If Sweden did not lose Henrik Sedin and Johan Franzen I probably would have picked them to win gold. I believe that by not having Henrik around that Daniel will have a very pedestrian tournament.
I think a big advantage that Sweden normally has (goaltending) is nullified in a matchup against the United States. Goaltending and depth scoring has the Americans moving on. In the Bronze Medal game I have Canada winning in decisive fashion. The loss to the Russians does not sit well with the Canadians and they come out guns a blazin’.
Congratulations to Canada on a well-deserved Bronze Medal. It will be the first medal Canada has earned away from North America since NHL players have been included for Olympic hockey. There is no team with more pressure to win the Gold Medal than the Russians. When Alex Ovechkin was asked what a Gold Medal in hockey would mean for Russia his response was:
“Mean gold only cost $50-billion." This entire Olympic experience for the Russian nation feels like it will live and die on the men’s hockey team. Vladimir Putin has put it in no uncertain terms that the men’s hockey tournament is the most important medal for Russia. For this reason I believe the pressure finally catches up to the Russians and they will lose on home ice to the Americans. The United States will win this short, single elimination tournament because they possess the one x factor that cannot be accounted for, hot goaltending. The Russians will pour it on early in the game and the Americans will get the saves they need. The longer the game goes, the tigher the Russian forwards start to grip their sticks. The United States will come in waves with their speed and ultimately score enough goals to win the Gold Medal.
The tournament MVP will be a Phil Kessel. He will continue to be red hot and take total advantage of the huge ice surface. His play will have electrified the tournament.
This will be the USA's first Gold Medal away from home soil for men's hockey. Congratulations to both the Russians and the Americans for a well played tournament.
That is how I see it.
How do you think things will play out?
Thanks for reading!