Luck Plays Big Factor in Jets 3-2 OT Win
There are many phrases about luck, songs about luck and certainly a whole multitude of advertising that makes people believe in luck. It's curious though why fans tend not to accept it's role in sports as a necessary and important variable.
Last night's Jets vs Oilers game was very much to do with luck and it's affect it had on the outcome, a 3-2 Jets win in overtime. In fact this is a game that had luck deciding the outcome not just for the Jets but for the Oilers. The Jets abundance of luck and the absence of it for the Oilers was the determining factors. Don't be fooled by narratives of 'will to win' or 'waking up late in the game' that's nothing more than deceit.
So how is 'luck' making an impact?
To begin with take the overall picture of the game, most Jets fans would use the terms of 'indifferent' 'sloppy' 'uninspired' or as Garret Hohl said 'meh' vs my term of 'sucky'. They all add up to the same thing, a poor performance and yes I did tweet that the Jets were playing down to their competition. I'm not above bland and tested narratives either.
However in this case the Jets came out on top last night- why? Of course they scored more goals than the Oilers but how did that happen?
This is where luck comes in. Between Trouba's goal and the game-tying goal by Byfuglien the Jets played a whole lot of 'sucky meh' hockey. In fact had Pavelec not been sharp later in the game, and had some luck with the Oilers hitting two posts, we're not having this conversation. In fact we'd talking about how the Jets were the slump buster for the Oilers, and make no mistake they almost were. That's how ugly the hockey they played was- slump buster ugly.
Where I'm wrong is the general narrative; the Jets were not just playing down to the Oilers level, they were simply playing poorly. The passes and positioning were not executed with effective precision and most of the team displayed an indecisiveness towards making plays and following a game plan. In simple terms they were forcing the play without playing.
The Oilers on the other hand were playing an effective game, on the road, trying to break a trend of 10 straight losses. As Paul Maurice said, 'if they weren't in a losing streak and you're their coach, you're pretty happy with how they played the game' (my paraphrase). So what does luck have to do with it?
Well the always astute Chris Boyle put out a tweet that said challenged the broad cast narrative on Byfuglien's goal. As Boyle said, Buff did not impose his will he got lucky when scoring that goal. I retweeted the remark and a few people took offense to Boyle's comments. I'm not sure why.
I didn't go back and look but I'm sure many of those challenging the validity of Boyle's remarks probably were tweeting what many Jets fans were, the team was playing some rather ineffective hockey last night. So magically they or a player can impose his will?
Break down the play. Stuart, (Pete's favourite whipping boy) took a pass from Trouba that was bobbling, controlled it (luckily) moved up a bit and put it on Buff at, not on, the net. Buff had his stick blade down and angled well so when the puck hit it, the puck deflected up and into a small opening between Scrivens and the post while Buff was being checked, albeit ineffectively. If that's something these two players work on I want to see that play every game- but it's not.
Stuart pulled out a good shot getting it at the net in the perfect position and Buff's blade happened to be at the perfect position, and then it found the only opening without it hitting another person or thing before going in. That dear reader is good luck and bad luck all in the same play, it just depends what side you are on.
What changed was that unlike most of the game the Jets did the simple thing that hockey coaches say to do all the time. Get the puck on net, and let things happen there. Why because they know that's where the best opportunity for luck or the events that lead to scoring goals happen. Your best probability for luck is in front of the net.
The same thing happened in OT when Kane got the puck on the half wall before sending it to Trouba, who put the puck towards the net and Perreault who put it home. All the Jets did within 3 minutes is some simple plays that gave them a better chance of realizing good luck. Something there weren't doing for most the second and third periods.
Cue any narrative you want but that's what it boils down to. That's what so much of hockey comes down to on a nightly basis. It doesn't make for quantifiable heroes but it does allow for fans to build a legend or myth around a player. That's okay and part of the privilege of being a fan but just don't forget someone got lucky and in this case the Oilers continued a trend of real bad luck.
If you ever look at a scoring heat map, there's a reason most goals happen in front of the net. It's because there are so many variable that affect the balance of luck and that's why coaches want pucks there, or they should. Teams simply have a better chance of getting good luck there.
Don't believe me? Ask this, what coach ever wants his team, when on defense, to keep the puck in front of the their own net?