The Buffalo Sabres appear to be in good position to get the player they want even if they lose the NHL Draft Lottery on April 15th.
The Sabres are firmly entrenched in 30th place with a 21-49-9 record and will have a 25% chance at selecting first overall on June 27th at Philadelphia’s Wells Fargo Center and will likely take the best forward on the board, either Sam Bennett of the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs or Sam Reinhart of the WHL’s Kootenay Ice.
While it is possible that a long shot could win the lottery and select one of the Sam’s, the odds are that Buffalo will still likely get their choice of forward picking second. The Florida Panthers or Edmonton Oilers have a combined 33% chance of getting the top pick and would likely opt for Barrie Colts blueliner Aaron Ekblad.
Florida has a trio of quality young forwards in 2013 Calder Trophy winner Jonathan Huberdeau, big center Nick Bjugstad and 2014 top pick Aleksander Barkov, but with the exception of former first rounders Dmitri Kulikov and Erik Gudbranson, the majority of the Panthers blueline is on the wrong side of 30.
Edmonton’s drafting strategy has been roundly criticized, as GM Steve Tambellini(or owner Daryl Katz if you believe the reports out of Alberta) chose to pick winger Nail Yakupov over defenseman Ryan Murray first overall in 2012 after drafting forwards Sam Gagner, Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in the first round the previous five years.
The Oilers selected blueliner Darnell Nurse in 2013 and based on the thin defensive corps currently playing under new coach Dallas Eakins, Edmonton will likely stay away from forwards for a second straight year.
The Sabres selecting Ekblad would not make sense for new Sabres GM Tim Murray, based on the fact that Buffalo’s organizational strength is on defense, with 2013 first rounders Ramsus Ristolainen and Nikita Zadorov, former University of Wisconsin product Jake McCabe, 22-year-old Mark Pysyk and former Calder Trophy winner Tyler Myers.
If the Sabres win the lottery, it is likely that they will simply pick the forward they want and go about their business, but there could be an opportunity for Murray to take advantage of the Oilers interest in Ekblad and extract a player or extra pick out of Edmonton GM Craig MacTavish.
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