The Jets are beginning a 3 game road trip tonight in Columbus with a stop in Buffasnow and finishing in Boston on Friday night. They are coming off a disappointing consecutive loss end to a short three game home stand. The resulting fallout from those losses is that the fans are restless again and are now talking more about old habits than the new 'Maurice-coached team'.
Today Clitsome returns as Enstrom is out with an undisclosed LBI. Also TJ Galiardi was waived leaving a spot on the active roster. This could be nothing more than needing space to call up defense from St. John's or it could be for something else. With the team well in the hunt at the all-important US Thanksgiving Day point perhaps Chevy is gearing up to make a move- don't hold your breath but hey, you never know.
From a roster standpoint there's nothing new to report other than the above, but there is something to discuss, and that is the Jets recent results. They are troubling because the team is doing better but not getting the same results.
Today the really smart guy Stephen Burtch was talking about how CA (Corsi against) probably affects what you are doing at the other end and also what your goalie is facing in your own end. The basic theory as I understand it really goes back to what another smart guy Garret Hohl has been saying for some time; 'shot quality usually leads to shot quantity'.
The essence here is that if you are seeing more shots and the skaters in front of are not controlling possession then you, the goalie, are facing tougher shots. I thought I might take a look at this with the Jets.
Let's take the last game vs St. Louis using these ideas and adding the element of PDO to the mix.
The Jets had a Corsi % of 53.47 and a PDO or 92.87 so in this case not only did the team shoot poorly they had lousy results between the pipes and a 4-2 loss.
Against Detroit they had a Corsi % of 55.86 and a PDO of 95.66 and shot 9.6% so it game down to saves.
Versus NJ they had a Corsi % of 58.33 and a PDO of 104.28 with Hutch rocking a .955 save percentage and the team shooting 8.7%
I could go on and on for the season but let me sum this up a bit differently. What I was looking to discover was evidence that the Jets were really only riding great goaltending and not possession but that was not the case. Once I saw that I look at PDO against the Corsi percentage and once again it's not conclusive in any meaningful way. There are just as many games in the 16 games I looked at where the Jets dominated possession and had a great PDO as there were when they had weak possession and a good PDO.
There is one thing that does come to light when Hutch is in net whether the Jets dominate possession or not he is posting stellar save percentage numbers. Since his first start versus LA Hutch has rocked a .970 save percent. He wins whether the Jets have good possession or bad, shoot weak shooting pecentage or not. In fact the average shooting percentage for the Jets when he is in net is 7.45% , below the historic league average but above the team average for this season.
Something different is happening on the ice when Hutch is in net based on the available sample size provided in this season to date. What that is is yet to be determined but he has been the one consistent aspect of the Jets play as a team no matter what else happens.
Tonight he gets the start and then Pavelec tomorrow vs Buffasnow. That leaves open the game on Friday one would think as both goalies would be rested and both would presumably be ready for the start. Maybe Maurice and company see that the Jets need more Hutch as Pavelec's save % dips down to .917 on the year. Maybe Pavelec is what he always has been and that's just now coming back around to the norm, or maybe there something else. I doubt it but right now if I'm a betting man I'd say unless Hutch poops the bed he's back in net on Friday.