Jets win 2 on Road but Score 1 goal
It was cause for celebration on Sunday night as the Jets beat the Chicago blackhawks by scoring a goal on the first shift of the game at :20. Then they hung on for dear life as the Hawks threw everything but the kitchen sink at the rookie goalie Michael Hutchinson.
Why would Hutch be playing in a game against division rival and conference powerhouse Chicago? Because his goaltending partner Ondrej Pavelec shut out the Rangers in regulation and OT the night before in NYC. So the lowly Jets, with all their goaltending questions, pitched back-to-back shutouts with two different goalies against two top 10 teams in the league. The solution to woes was better defense but now the problem is the team can't score.
First I think it's far to premature to declare defense issues resolved because of back-to-back shutouts. There's just as much luck at play in those wins as there was defense skill. In fact allowing 61 shots in two games is probably not the best measure of where the defense is at. I'm not even going to discuss the idea of quality. I've had those debates and as some one far smarter than yours truly said, "quality always leads to quantity".
Here's the facts the Jets have dropped their Shots Against (talking raw stats today) from 30.1/game to 27.8/game (after 12 games) so 2.3/game. Where they were 17th across the league at the end of last season they are 7th now after a small sample size.
They have even dropped their GA from 2.82/game after 82 games to 2.08/game after 12 games this season, 22nd overall to 8th. But before we all decry the 'Maurice effect' let's see if this is sustainable. I want to see another 20-30 games before I declare these Jets 'fixed'.
But what about the scoring? What is going to make the Jets get more pucks in the net? After Jets fans want it all- greedy they are.
First off the second line of Kane Scheifele Wheeler is not giving the team the goals it needs. It's not their fault for the entire team's scoring malaise but they are three players who are expected to produce and so far it's not happening. While Evander Kane has missed a large part of the first 12 games the symptoms did not go away upon his return. However if you look at team shooting percentage the Jets, before Sunday's game, were at 6.08%, a full 2.5 points lower than historic NHL average. That's not good but it does not mean they are destined to stay there.
If one were to take the average team shooting percentages of the last 3 seasons prior to this one you can see that no team is below what the Jets are at 6.08% in 5 vs 5 situations. The lowest is...drum roll please the Los Angeles Kings, two time Stanley Cup winner at 6.57% at 5 vs 5. The Jets over that time were 7.87, tied for 15th. So they are 1.79% lower than there 3 year average.
What does 1.79% mean? The Jets are 8th in the league in 'shots for'. They are getting pucks on net they just aren't going in so if the Jets added 1.79% to their shooting percentage what would that mean with goals? Well that would mean going from the current 21 goals scored to 28. If you add that to a season total it looks like 191 vs 144 for the season. That's enough to be very meaningful. Last season the Jets had 219 goals. Yes, almost 30 more than they could be on pace for if they were shooting to their three-year average shooting percentage.
Last year the Jets shot in all situations 8.7% or 7.81% at 5 vs 5. Remember this is a team that had a piss poor PP last year too, ranking 25th in the league and shooting only 11.2% with the man advantage. Right now they are worse at 4.4% shooting on the PP. Is this all because of a defense first' mentality and the 'Maurice effect'? Probably not and I wouldn't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Really it's about luck as not much other than the coach has changed and he sure as heck didn't say 'take worse shots, and less of them'. No, goals will come if the Jets keep doing the right things but it will be because they are getting some bounces, or as they say in the stats business 'luck'. Let's hope the goaltending stays the same when the goal luck finally arrives.