The Ottawa Senators close out their 3 game Western Canada road trip on Saturday night with a stop in Calgary to face one of the most surprising teams in the league so far this season, in the red hot Flames.
Ottawa seemed to check out of their game in Edmonton early, playing a dominant first period and emerging with a 3-0 lead. They ended up blowing that lead and had to get an overtime marker from Mike Hoffman to rescue the win and the all important points that it brought.
Despite play that can only be described as inconsistent, the Sens have taken 3 of a possible 4 points on this trip, and with the way the teams around them in the standings are playing right now, every point matters if they are going to keep pace. A win against the Flames would see them come home in great shape taking 5 of 6 points on the trip, and in better position considering the difficult schedule they have leading up to Christmas.
It will be a good test for the Senators to see if they can hold an opponent who normally has poor possession stats to under 30 shots on goal, and to see if they can actually win a game where that happens. The Senators are the only team without a win when they have out-shot their opponent (granted it has only happened 3 times, and they are 0-1-2), and they have allowed 30 or more shots against in all but 1 game this season (an OT loss to the Devils).
The young Flames have been one of the most prolific offensive squads in the league, on of just 7 teams to have 3 or more goals per game on average. This comes despite averaging the second fewest shots per game (26.6) and being one of the worst possession teams in the league. Their 5 on 5 Corsi rating of 43.48% is better than only the Buffalo Sabres' legendarily awful 37.01% this season.
So how are they getting it done? The Flames have 13 players with shooting percentages over 10% (Ottawa, for example has just 8). They are opportunistic scorers who make the most of their chances. Jonas Hiller has provided them with solid, and sometimes spectacular goaltending while early season Norris candidate Mark Giordano is one of the most unknown star defensemen in the league. He leads his team with 20 points, while adding a +7 rating, showing he can get it done at both ends of the ice. Giordano has an 8 game point streak, during which he has 13 points.
Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreu are leading the youth movement for the Flames. Monahan had a six game pointless streak earlier in the season, but has 7 goals and 10 points in his last 10 games, while the diminutive Gaudreau has been a little less consistent but had made some highlight reel plays and has 4 multipoint games so far this season. This has them, at least for now, making their provincial rival Edmonton Oilers look inept at their rebuild because the Flames have sunk and risen so much quicker while their neighbors to the North continue to struggle.
I say "for now", because analytics tells you that the Flames should not be able to keep up the pace of constantly being out-possessed and maintain such a high shooting percentage. They will eventually regress toward the average, which means a drop-off in production. However, as long as it lasts I think Flames fans will enjoy the ride and the exciting brand of hockey the Flames are playing and at least giving them something to cheer for much sooner than they might have expected.
In a lot of ways, the Senators and the Flames are very similar teams. Both have come to rely heavily on younger players and their success bodes well for the future of both clubs. Both are (perhaps unexpectedly) sitting in playoff spots today but will most likely be scratching tooth and nail to maintain that position and both will look at this game as one they should (and need) to win in the grand scheme of things.
For a mid-November game between two teams who don't see each other very often, this is really a very important game for both teams.
Look for Craig Anderson to make his third straight start in the Senators' net. Could this be the first time he doesn't face 30 shots in a game? Check it out on CBC, with puck drop set for shortly after 10PM. I for one am glad the team doesn't play too many games out west, because these late games are tough.
RALLYING AROUND BRYAN MURRAY
The news of Bryan Murray's failing health was the talk of the NHL off the ice for the last couple of days, and you would have to think that it provides a rallying point for the team. The realization that the man who built this team almost from ground up might not have too much time left has to hit home hard for the players. Perhaps it is something that they can rally around and give them motivation to succeed and give Murray something he has never had...a Stanley Cup ring. There is no shortage of motivation in normal times, but something like this news is shocking and just might provide that little extra spark on any given night.
The number of people talking about it and all the kind words being sent Murray's way in light of his going public and the awareness he has raised as to what steps can and should be done for others to potentially avoid such a fate show just what kind of individual the Senators GM is. and the fact that he has remained on the job despite his health shows just how dedicated he is to the game that he has been part of all his life.
Inspiration can often be drawn from different places, and I am sure that winning a championship to Murray would be at the top of a lot of lists in that Senators dressing room today and going forward.