On Buff, Stuart and ice time
The story is still the same with the Jets. Solid goaltending and terrible puck luck around the opposition’s net. The result has equaled few goals scored and fewer (than in past seasons) allowed and if the Jets want to win more games than lose something has to change. Tonight the Jets face the Canes and two goalies playing well above their traditional past season rates of play are set to face each other. The Canes are 5-4-1 and the Jets are 6-2-2 in their last 10 games respectively. Both teams have been the topic of trade rumours from various pundits and while the Canes group has come out and denied some, Chevy remains hidden in the hangar as his team continues it’s 5 game road trip.
Tonight the test and the story will be about one of two things, one goalie stumbling down to reality or one team stepping up and scoring. As of this writing it appears Hutchinson gets the start. While the Canes are scoring at a rate of 8.7% on shots in all situations and the Jets are at 5.7% so it would be the latter that seems set to break the trend. The Jets certainly tried last game against Montreal but they could not get any puck luck in front of Montreal’s net and their own.
If the Jets are going to start scoring they have to stop taking the Manitoba motto on the road with them and at home. What’s that you ask? “Friendly Manitoba….
The Jets are far too courteaous and polite in front of their own net, and the opposition’s. Instead of being a welcome matt in front of Pavelec or Hutch they need to get physical and clear out hordes trying to get in. At the other end of the ice they have to be banging on the door and refusing to leave. Like a mob of trick-or-treaters not wiling to depart until they have scored some candy. Frankly the Jets need to play in front of the net like their own license plates say:
Last night as I was crusing twitter, an always great place to get your brain fired up, and found another discussion about the Jets and defense. The comments were from the always inquisitive Scott Campbell and the very smart and poignant Robert Cleave. What’s great about guys like Scott and Robert is they are open to discussing bigger ideas and bringing in detailed nuances into the discussion. There is rarely and agenda to forward by either of them, so there the endorsement to give them a follow.
Last night the discussion revolved around a few things in particular the rumblings that the Jets are interesting in adding another defenseman. Zoinks?!?!? While no one can deny, at least with a straight face, that the Jets defense is optimal as it appears via personnel it has performed well enough most nights. So why the need to look to fill that position from the outside? As Campbell and Cleave discussed last night that person exists in house.
@arby_18 @Teddier @NHL_Campbell Yup. If you want a top end D man, who's legitimately available that's as good as 33? Find a RW and move on.
— Robert Cleave (@rmcleave) November 13, 2014The follow up to that point is this:
@NHL_Campbell People always think about Buff as a D rushing the puck, but they really miss his passing to get them going in transition, imo.
— Robert Cleave (@rmcleave) November 13, 2014I’m not going to get into the debate of Buff as defense versus Buff as forward- that’s been done but the bigger issue here is usage. With Buff on forward it has forced Maurice to rely on other defensemen for minutes and that may have an impact on goal scoring. As Cleave points out,
@NHL_Campbell Very true. The contrast between him as a supporting D for O Zone pressure and say, Stu, is pretty stark.
— Robert Cleave (@rmcleave) November 13, 2014So without a second puck-moving d-man the pressure falls down to Stuart and Trouba. Bogosian is there some days, other days he’s not, just like his play in front of his net. Frankly we’re still waiting for rookie year Bogosian to return.
Right now the top 8 players who have played with Stuart have a huge improvement in their on-ice goals for per 20 minutes played measurement- GF20. The core players who have played the most with Stuart are as follows:
#8 .183 with .422 w/o #55 .395 with .652 w/o #26 .218 with .901 w/o #16 .282 with .929 w/o #18 .291 with .924 w/o #9 .000 with .385 w/o #17 .000 with .149 w/o
When these guys are playing with Stuart the team is scoring less. The troubling thing is that here is Stuart’s average TOI for the past four seasons.
14-15 19:43/game 13-14 18:38/game 12-13 16:42/game 11-12 17:12/game
The lockout year was the right direction in regards to an aging stay at home defenseman who plays physical and blocks shots- keep the wear and tear to a minimum. During that year 3 of the top 8 players by TOI with Stuart had better numbers with him than without. In fairness that happened last season too but was it due to the fact that Trouba was playing way beyond expectations?
Well I’m not so sure about that. The same players got better when away from Trouba too even in the Goal Against per 20 minutes played measurement. So what’s going on here?
Well this is where it’s gets hard to understand because you have to look at the lockout season which has all sorts of goofiness rolled into 48 games. In fact comprehending this kind of data is better left for people Smarter than me. But the basic issue still exists in a 16 game sample right now, an aging defensemen who has never had strong offensive numbers and gets creamed on possession is logging more minutes than ever…and guess what the Jets are digging fewer pucks out of their own net. They are also scoring way less too and one of these situations is bound to change.
If you believe that shooting percentage is bound to rise think about this. Mark Stuart has played the 4th most minutes of all Jets at even strength 5v5. When he is on the ice the team shoots with a dismal 2.59% success. It’s a massive drop off even for Stuart but it seems the Jets are oblivious to this. Maybe they know and have no other option than Stuart but at age 30 is Stuart a guy who needs more ice time and bigger role on this team or less? As Cleave says again in response to me:
@Teddier @arby_18 @NHL_Campbell No shit. Stu's a made man within the org for a lot of reasons.
— Robert Cleave (@rmcleave) November 13, 2014In all honesty I started looking at Stuart expecting to find some very damning information and data and what I saw presented a different story. That story is far more complex than I first thought. If Jets fans believe Pavelec will come back to earth and play to a .910 they should also believe that Stuart and the Jets will rise at even strength and start shooting closer to 8%. Now we have point to begin watching and see if what happens from not on is greatly affected one way or another by Stuart’s play and role. I think it’s worth watching.