After one of the more complete game victories the Kings have had this season last Thursday against Phoenix, they have looked a different team.
Well, not that much actually.
However, the most important difference from the 4-0 win against Phoenix to the 2-1 loss to Philly and 1-0 loss to Buffalo is the fact that the Kings aren't burying the chances they get, and they've generated fewer in general. The Kings have slowly slid in the goals per game category and now sit in 18th in the league. That isn't bad considering they have been bottom 10 or bottom 5 in recent seasons. Still, with a roster that is identical to the one that saw them net over 3 goals a night in the playoffs you have to wonder where it goes? How does this offense come and go so easily?
First of all, credit Enroth and Mason who both respectively had very solid games for their teams. However, year after year it seems like it's talked about with the Kings ad nauseum, but slumps tend to rule this team.
Looked at the team stats lately? Anze Kopitar is 6th on the team in scoring with 12 points in 25 games, and a lot of pundits have been asking "What's wrong with Kopitar?" For the record, that is an absolutely rabid pace of 37 points over 79 games. He has now gone ten games without a goal, and neither a rotation of Gaborik, Carter, Williams, or Toffoli at his wings has seems to help. The line of Williams, Kopitar, and Gaborik were reunited last night with the latter coming back from injury. While the line was effective in generating chances, there just wasn't anyone capable of finishing off the plays. Keep in mind, Kopitar has always been a pass first player, but this year his 5v5 iCorsi has sunk pretty low. He is generating just over 9 chances at net over 60 minutes at 5 on 5. That includes chances that miss the net or get blocked. His iFenwick over 60 is equally as disappointing so far, with just about 7 chances being directed towards net.
*Remember, the difference between Fenwick and Corsi is Fenwick does not count blocked shots towards your rating.
But are those stats really disappointing from the franchise center? Both numbers put him third to last amongst forwards, ahead of only Dwight King and Jarret Stoll. While Kopitar has never been a chance generating machine, these are both numbers that are off his pace from the last 3 years.
2011-12
iFenwick/60 - 10.79 iCorsi/60 - 13.82
2012-13
iFenwick/60 - 9.17 iCorsi/60 - 11.03
2013-14
iFenwick/60 - 9.39 iCorsi/60 - 12.01
Again, for posterity, here is this season
iFenwick/60 - 6.96 iCorsi/60 - 9.41
As you can see, both numbers are way down, and not surprisingly so is his production. However, isolating Kopitar isn't always the best thing when it comes to criticizing offense. He isn't necessarily a forward that is going to generate chances himself. He generally sets up the chances and prevents them in his own end. He does the latter as good and better than most forwards in the league. To that point, he is still tops on the team in corsi for % at 56.4. There isn't really a massive difference in his shooting percentages either. The current number of 11.1% isn't all that different from his career average of 12.2.
Here is where it all comes together though. The combos and the support.
You pay Kopitar the top dollars because he is a two-way center who is exceptional in both ends. However, since he isn't really a chance generating machine you have to pair him with one. Two helps. The problem the Kings run into, and Darryl Sutter specifically, is that the team is fairly top heavy in who generates chances. If you look at the charts over the last three years you see three names consistently: Justin Williams, Jeff Carter, and Dustin Brown. Now, with the insertion of Tyler Toffoli into the lineup full time you see his name creeping in there quite a bit also. In fact, Toffoli has been the single most effective King this season at generating chances. No surprise, he leads the team in scoring.
Taking a look over the past three years vs this year for the following numbers for those three.
Williams 2011-14 | 2014-15 iCorsi/iFenwick/60 - 17.28/14.03 | 16.26/13.31
Carter 2011-14 | 2014-15 iCorsi/iFenwick/60 - 18.50/14.51 | 17.22/12.82
Brown 2011-14 | 2014-15 iCorsi/iFenwick/60 - 16.17/12.03 | 15.96/11.80
It's down across the board at 5-on-5. Not only is Kopitar himself generating less chances, the guys who are paired with him are generating less chances as well.
Now you get into the problem of front loading your offense in order to get one or two guys going. As it currently stands, if you put Toffoli, Kopitar, and Carter together, you would be placing a ridiculous amount of your offense on one line. As tantalizing a combination as that may seem, it could easily turn the Kings into a one-line team. Cue the Anaheim Ducks "Unsustainable" model.
An example of a team that doesn't have this problem? The Chicago Blackhawks. The Blackhawk's offense works like a well oiled machine. Every single regular forward on their team generates an average of 10 chances towards net over 60 minutes. Except *Drumroll* Jonathan Toews. He, like Kopitar, is a distributor and an all-around player. His options though are generally Hossa and Sharp, both of whom are shot generating machines. The Blackhawks have the luxury of placing those two alongside Toews while not having to worry about offense becoming thin everywhere else. The Kings have no such luxury.
The addition of Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson, and Marian Gaborik has helped the Kings even this out a little bit. However, they still have a naturally low offensive acumen in general. It also doesn't help when you have Jeff Carter working on his longest goal slump as a King to date and Marian Gaborik constantly being hampered by injuries. This really limits the overall versatility of the team offense.
That's why the Kings offense seems so touch and go sometimes. They play with a very delicate balance of offense and defense. Some would say it is more defense oriented, others would say it lacks offensive personnel, but the reality is that it is both. The Kings are an offensively top heavy team with a knack for defense. The scary part is when, and we've seen it happen in the playoffs, all of the top-end offensive generating players start finding the net at the same time. Couple that with the timely goals of a Dwight King, Jarret Stoll, or Kyle Clifford, and you have a recipe for an offensive show that is good defensively.
The delicate balance of the Kings. It can go from a dominating performance against Arizona to two pretty frustrating losses at the hands of the Flyers and Sabres. I don't envy Darryl Sutter.
Trying to figure out a Kopitar slump, usually goes much deeper than one player. While there is a certain amount of responsibility to place on the shoulders of the Slovenian, it isn't always fair to isolate him. Kopitar acts as a conduit for the Kings offensive transitions and less like the finished product. If you ask any general manager, it's harder to find the conduit and they are much more valuable. Not to downplay or devalue the role of a finisher like Carter or Toffoli, but they can come in the forms of a Radim Vrbata or a Lee Stempniak as well. A player like Kopitar is much more difficult to come by.
Kopitar does slump. This is a fact. Every player does. However, the big centerman is still doing what he is best at doing: Controlling games. The trouble isn't with him in essence, but with the mutual slumps of his supporting cast. He does bear the burden of a touch and go offense to an extent, but much like everything with the Kings they rise and fall together. Sometimes they are up, sometimes they are down. Why do you think Kings fans hate the regular season? Because you never know what team is going to show up on any given night. Lovely LA Kings hockey in December-February.
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