The Canes spent the month of October aggressively racing to an early lead in the McEichel sweepstakes. 0-6-2 was a great start for that race. But the Canes have since spent the month of November trying to play their way into an 82-game hockey season with games that matter in the 2nd half of it. 4-0-1 has pulled the Canes out of the cellar and to within 4 points of a playoff spot. (I adjust for games in hand by just measuring games above .500 to figure the standings, so Flyers are plus 2 and Canes are minus to for 4 points total.)
It took a 2-week surge to get there, but the Carolina Hurricanes are very much sitting on the fence right now with 1 side being the lottery contention of October and the other being playoff contention of November. I think the rest of November will have a lot to say about which it is. The Canes did play well for 3 straight games to start November (and not so much despite earning 3 points in 2 games this weekend), but they also caught a scheduling break in that they had a run of games mostly on home ice and against teams that were struggling.
But if you assess where the Canes are right now, it is like this:
1) They have nearly but not entirely made up for October. The Canes are still a couple games below .500 and out of a playoff spot, so treading water would not be catastrophic, but another October-like swoon could be.
2) They have not been playing as well recently. This weekend the Canes somehow parlayed a total of 2 good periods into a win and an OTL. Playing mediocre or worse hockey and then pulling out points in the 3rd period is good stuff, but not a sustainable recipe for winning hockey.
3) The schedule gets harder 1st and then much harder next. This week is home-heavy with 3 home games, but they are against strong competition. Calgary is playing well and just a horrible matchup for the Canes lately especially the version that has struggled moving the puck at times. Then comes Winnipeg who has been playing well. And finally there is a back-to-back with travel in Boston on Saturday and at home against San Jose on Sunday. All of these teams can bring the big and physical that can gradually wear on a team in the middle of a busy stretch of schedule. It will take better hockey than what we saw this weekend to have a successful week. After that comes a tough 5-game road trip that starts out West and finishes with 2 back East and a home and home set against Pittsburgh to close out the month.
So did the Canes just happen upon a bit better stretch of hockey like happens to all teams, even the bad ones, over the course of a long 82-game season? Or are they on the right track to climbing back into the playoff chase? With some tough matchups on the schedule this week, can they quickly re-find the solid play from the Ari, LA and @Clu wins? Or do the lesser outings despite the win and OTL represent a return to October?
If you want a challenge for an indication, the team gets exactly that Monday. You could make a decent argument that losses to Calgary have been low-water points both in 2014-15 and 2013-14. Last season, a disappointing home loss to a seemingly less Calgary team that saw the Canes outplayed by a wide margin set the tone for how the season would end. This season the 5-0 loss in Calgary in which the Canes mustered only 16 shots, were stifled offensively and were never even in the game was a low point. The Flames are a better team than last season. And their style of play still seems to be a horrible matchup for the Canes. So do the Canes dig down, bring the lunch pails and match Calgary's intensity and work ethic on the way to a better showing and more points? Or do they carry forward the down slide from the weekend and lose?
With a win, the Canes will be the #1 team in the NHL in points for November. With a loss, the trend is negative despite the strong start to the month.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63 #ForgetOctober
Go Canes!