Nothing like killing the momentum of a good start to the season with an East Coast road trip from hell right?
0-2-1
Outscored 11-4
Playing one game with 19 players.
A team that had previously given up just seven goals in the previous seven games has suddenly been slammed for 11 in three. On top of that, the top notch penalty killing that had only given up four in the last 30 shorthanded situations suddenly gives up four powerplay goals in the last 11 shorthanded situations.
Oh, they've also had the nasty habit of getting off to horrid starts on this road trip, being outscored 8-1 in the first frame. Scoring first makes a difference in this league, and the Kings have been behind the 8-ball in every single game on the trip thus far. Opposing teams have relied heavily on shutting down the Carter-Toffoli-Pearson line, which has all but stifled the Kings offensive capabilities.
Let's be real, when your first line is Brown-Richards-King, you're not going to be setting the world ablaze offensively. At the moment, the Kings look very much like a one-line team yet again.
There are some other things that are concerning in the overarching sense of the season. So far the Kings are middle of the pack in corsi and fenwick for, which is understandable given that they are missing two of their biggest play driving forwards in Gaborik and Kopitar. Both of which should be returning to the lineup soon if all goes well. They also didn't have Jake Muzzin for the first bit of the season and he has not looked up to speed yet in the games he has played. However, one of the more concerning numbers is their five on five play when games are tied. They are falling at 25th in the league currently in corsi for percentage at 5 on 5 when games are tied, and are 27th in Fenwick in the same situation. Score effects have been a big topic of conversation this year, and if you don't know what those are then I highly recommend checking out this new post from Yahoo analytics blogger, Jennifer Lute Costello. Really solid stuff.
TL;DR and futbol relatable version of score effects...Jose Mourinho and Chelsea parking the bus. When teams get up by one or two goals they tend to play more conservatively and harden up defensively rather than risk offensive chances. Thus it can make corsi and fenwick look favorable for a team that is losing. I fell victim to this the other night when looking at the charts for the Pittsburgh game. I felt the Kings were outplaying the Pens at 5-on-5, but it wasn't by as wide a margin as the possession graphs would indicate. While the Kings were definitely driving the play at evens, a simple eye test of the defensive structure and neutral zone play of the Pens showed that they were more than happy with a two goal lead to clog up the passing lanes and allow the Kings to take perimeter shots of little or no consequence. Score effects. Just another thing to consider in the broadening world of analytics.
BUT, this number is a bit glaring. The Kings are getting out-chanced pretty heavily when the games are in the balance. For sake of reference, the Kings led the league last year in both categories. Oh yea, they also led the league in 2012-13 in the same situation.
The good news here is that this should all balance out in due time. This is a bit of a small sample size to start the year, and it's a sample size that has had to endure missing Gaborik, Kopitar, Voynov, AND Jake Muzzin. Four incredibly talented players who mean a whole lot to the LA Kings.
Right now they are asking Brayden McNabb, Alec Martinez, and Robyn Regehr to play well above their heads in situations. They are also trying to get Jake Muzzin back up to speed after what has been a dreadful return. In a nutshell, the team is out of whack right now due to personnel issues.
It can only get better, and some of these strange and uncharacteristic numbers we are seeing from the Kings are going to regress back to normal. Or so you'd hope. Amazing how a team of 20 guys can be thrown into upheaval a bit when you lose 2-3 players. It's a team sport, but there are individuals who make a world of difference.
The Kings have a chance to right the ship a bit on Sunday, and it's going to come against a team that is currently in a heavy weight bout for the title of "Worst team in the league."
Yes, the tank seems to be on for Connor McJesus in Carolina (and oh my god why would you not? This kid is STUPID good.) Loaded with injuries and poor performances, the Hurricanes have had a dreadful start and remain as the only winless team in hockey. Careful though, Eric Staal has recently returned, Jeff Skinner is healthy, and Jiri Tlusty is a pretty fine hockey player in his own right. There is quality there. To me though, this has to be a win if you are the Kings. Not just for the sake of confidence, but because Carolina is a pretty bad hockey team.
Such are the swings of an NHL season though. Last week everyone was talking about the Kings being off to such a roaring start. Now, after three very shaky performances and a missing star in Anze Kopitar...it's a touch more murky wouldn't you say? However, the team has a chance to finish strong here with a win against Carolina and another one against Dallas on Tuesday. After that they settle in for a six of seven games at home, with a game against the Ducks in Anaheim tossed into the middle of it. Not bad.
Finish strong, and for the love of god don't lose to the Hurricanes.
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Pierre LeBrun reported the other day on the ongoing negotiations between the LA Kings and upcoming UFA Alec Martinez.
And my initial thoughts on that were "HA!"
But that's negotiation 101. Start high as the player, counter low as the team, meet in the middle. However, there are some things to consider which make this situation a tad bit intriguing.
First off this is a(n) UFA contract, which is VASTLY different from a(n) RFA contract. The reason the Kings were able to get Voynov and Muzzin both for very reasonable cap hits was due to them being RFA rather than UFA. There is no competitive market, the odds of offer sheets happening are slim to none, and the Kings can eat up RFA years of the player which adds to the overall value of the contract. Not quite as simple when dealing with a UFA.
In the report, Martinez's camp mentions "comparables", which always makes me cringe. Know who else mentioned comparables a lot? Dave Bolland's camp. David Clarkson's camp. Yea. Those are, however, very extreme examples of when a UFA contract goes wrong.
Alec Martinez is currently making $1.1M, and I think it's fair to say he DOES deserve a raise. After all, his current cap hit comparables are players like Ben Lovejoy, Radko Gudas, Marco Scandella, and David Schlemko. A raise is a realistic thing to ask for given his production and importance to the team. However, when we get into the $4M cap hit range you are starting to talk about guys like Voynov, Kevin Shattenkirk, Mark Giordano, Marc Edouard-Vlasic, and Roman Josi. No offense to Martinez but he is not on that level with the aforementioned players.
When it is all said and done, Martinez is probably in the 2-2.5 range, but the real question his team has to ask is are they willing to take less to play in L.A? The cap is crunching in on the Kings and you can already see that. Martinez has a lot going for him that might make him desirable on the open market and might make someone willing to pay that 4M to him. He is only 27, has been mildly productive, and hey, he scored a cup clinching goal. Wasn't that the argument that Bolland used to get Florida to sign away their common sense?
More will come out in the next couple of months, but it is definitely a situation to monitor moving forward.
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