Follow @james_tanner123 The Coyotes Youth Movement didn't last that long.
In fact, it never even existed.
While I don't agree with all the roster decisions, no one in their right mind, not even me, thought they were going to go full-out with the young guys. I expected Gormely, Domi and perhaps even Lessio/Rieder and Samuelsson, but it is not to be.
The team is in a complicated place - They have a lot of good young pieces, but outside of Ekman-Larsson none of them are thought to be of the super elite variety. They sit with a number of teams who have a chance to be a bubble playoff team, but would need everything to break their way.
The most likely scenario: Not good enough to win, not bad enough to get the desperately needed elite forward only available to teams who finish low and win the lottery. (The Leafs are the financial opposite of the Coyotes and they can't buy one either, so the playing field here is probably flatter than you think).
The Coyotes - not unlike the Leafs - sit in that unenviable no-man's land where you don't win and you don't lose bad enough to win by losing.
For the Leafs, it's that their market is too good. They can accidentally be horrible for a decade, but no one has had the guts in that market to just tear it right down and do it right. Their on-the-fly rebuild has, at best, produced mixed results.
For the Coyotes, the market is just too bad. Last in the NHL and at the centre of another potential ownership change (which, if you're wondering why this article isn't about that, it's because i'd rather talk about hockey, at least for today.) They can't do a proper rebuild because they are already last in the league in attendance. Their market position is, at best, precarious. They can't risk a 25 win season- or at least they don't believe they can, although I tend to think fans are smarter than corporations think they are.
So, due to a complicated mixture of market dynamics, stubbornness and other circumstances, the Coyote have abandoned the Youth Movement for mediocrity. But let me clear, this is still a team that I think will make the playoffs - it's just unfortunate that they are crippled by things beyond their control. All things being equal, this would be the year to dress the kids and see what happens.
Keep in mind though: The Youth Movement was a construction of the fan base and journalists. It was never a real plan. Here's Don Maloney from earlier last month, setting the table for what was to come in a talk with Fox reporter Craig Morgan:
"There's a lot of talk about our youth movement, but a youth movement and a winning movement: That's what I want to talk about. I get the perception that everyone believes these four or five young guys like Max and Lucas are automatically on the team. That's not the case at all. If they warrant time in the minors or juniors, that's where they'll be. If an 18-year-old can come in and play without retarding his growth, then we'll do that.
Don Maloney was trying to put the breaks on the perception the team would go with youth movement because it was never in the cards. Later in the article he says "Go ask Shane or Mike Smith if they're all jacked up about a youth movement," he said.
And to be fair, those guys wouldn't be excited about a youth movement. But if we weren't talking Phoenix, the automatic move would be to ship those guys out, skate the kids and try for McDavid.
So they will try for the playoffs with a mostly veteran roster, which is fine. But here is the problem, as I see it: The best case scenario for the Coyotes this year is to be tough to play against, defensively suffocating (i.e potentially boring to watch) and then sneak into the playoffs, maybe pull off an upset or two and that it.
Good for the casual fans, the bottom line, but not exactly smart franchise building. Aiming for mediocrity is not a long term sustainable business practice.
That is the best case scenario and the one they are hoping for. Perhaps smartly, due to budget constraints and the fact sending him back to junior extends is entry level contract, the Coyotes sent Max Domi back to junior.
In a vacuum, sending Domi back while Erat, Vermette and Doan are disguised as top six forwards would make me angry. But, you gotta play the hand dealt and sending him back is probably the right move all things considered.
But forgive me if it I think it seems like they are talking out of both sides of their mouth at once. Because yes, the extended ECL is a big deal if in year three of it he gives them star level performance at rookie prices, but at the same time, going back to junior for a fourth year is not going to help him. You do better playing better competition than growing complacent with guys you can dominate. No one will ever convince me otherwise.
Use all the straw-men you want to, tell me "most 19 year old's aren't making a big impact in the NHL,'' and look to guys like Mueller and Boedker, who in retrospect seem to have been rushed, as if they are directly comparable. They aren't.
And you can't tell me the team isn't better with Domi on it. "He didn't beat out anyone in our top six," Maloney said. That seems like a lie. You are going to tell me with a straight face that Martin Erat, who had zero points in three pre-season games (Domi had 3 points in his first game) and 3 goals in 70 games last year is a better option for the top six?
That's the most disingenuous BS I have ever heard.
Here's the projected top two lines to start the season: Doan and Boedker with Vermette in the middle, and Hanzel between Erat and Gagner. This would be an outrage if it wasn't so obvious that the team was trying to tread water with the problems of last place attendance, ownership issues etc. etc. etc.
My problem as a blogger for this team is trying to find middle ground between what I want to happen, what most teams would do, and what the market dictates the Coyotes have to do.
Vermette and Doan make up 2/3's of a pretty good third line. Throw Korpikoski on there and you have a close-to-elite shutdown line with a pretty good chance to score now and then. But on the first line? Is that a joke? It's the worst second line in hockey. It isn't even close to a first line. It's an abomination.
But you have to look at it from a realistic scenario. The Coyotes first line is made to play other first lines and shut them down. A situation where Domi or Samuelsson are in the top six entails a lot of matchup hockey and trying to find exploitable situations. The way it currently sits, the Coyotes top lines are not as much about scoring as they are about preventing goals.
Like trying to just make the playoffs, it's not optimal, but it is what it is. (The franchise's new slogan, apparently).
Domi, Samuelson, Lessio, Rieder, Gaudet, Gormely.....a couple of these guys would have been fun to see on opening night. But, rest assured, outside of Domi, they all probably do get called up as the year goes on.
Not that going with rookies would have won them more games - although it very certainly might have - but losing wouldn't have been the worst thing for this franchise. There was almost no risk in a youth movement: You could surprise people as you can still ice an amazing shut-down line, strong defense and goaltending. But even if you don't, the odds are, you get a great draft pick.
The actual strategy is to get a wild-card position, hope to get lucky or draft 12th again.
I get the realities of doing what they are doing. The market dictates it, and I do believe they can still make a run at the playoffs. But a full-on Youth Movement fraught with losing and then getting a top draft pick would probably be the wisest decision in a fair world. But, we got what we got, so I don't blame them.
But don't sit there and tell me Max Domi couldn't beat out Erat for a job.
A full on youth movement was never in the cards. It was a fantasy. A youth infusion was what I was hoping for. It didn't happen in October, but it's on the way. You really do have to appreciate the balancing act these guys are doing.
Thanks for reading.