Below is part 3 of my Carolina Hurricanes NHL trade deadline set of blogs. When I originally drafted parts of this, I started with the theme of “30 names,… but the 4-game losing streak seemingly eliminates the sense of including any of the “rental for a playoff push… targets.
In part 1, I spelled out which Canes, both rentals and not, had a decent probably of being moved or at least shopped at the trade deadline. You can find that blog HERE.
In part 2, I suggested that Canes GM Jim Rutherford should use his phone time this week to shop for a non-rental top 4 defenseman. He is going to need 1 maybe even 2 (especially if Hainsey goes and does not return), and with the big salary cap increase the limited options in this regard could be real expensive this summer. You can read the full version of that HERE.
So that leads into part 3 which is considering what else the Canes might want to add this summer but might be better off shopping for now while all of the big market teams are tight on salary cap and focused on 2013-14.
For those who want to read more, this starts with my assessment of the Canes roster which ultimately leads to a short list of target forwards. For those who want to cut to the chase, just skip below the ---------- divider for the names.
My assessment of the Canes roster goes like this:
In goal: A tandem of Anton Khudobin and Cam Ward would be fine in terms of quality. **See 2nd paragraph for $ disclaimers. Khudobin has proven worthy of a starting job somewhere with his play this season, and Ward has proven that you cannot go into 2014-15 hoping to push for the playoffs and counting on him as your #1. Could he rebound? Sure. But would you take this to the bank when building the roster for next year? Only if you either have a crystal ball or are crazy.
Disclaimer #1. First, the total price tag of $10M will handicap the Canes in terms of building out the rest of the lineup, but I just do not see another option. Each time Ward takes the ice his trade value decreases. IF the Canes were willing to eat the max ½ of his salary, I doubt anyone would be willing to take him at the remaining $3.15M cap hit and $3.75M actual salary for 2 more years. And with the Canes more constrained by internal budget than salary cap and unlikely to spend to the new limit, I do not get the people who want to buy him out other than to relieve frustration. To do so would cost about $4.4M/year for 2 years. (I do not care how it gets spread; it still gets paid.) More significantly the actual savings would only be about $2.3M/year. At that point, the actual decision becomes, would you rather have $2.3M to spend on another goalie or would you rather have Cam Ward for $2.3M. As much as he has struggled this season, I would keep Cam Ward for $2.3M. The price is a little bit high if he just remains a backup and never regains his form, but because the potential of the potential of it turning out better, I think I would bite the bullet and just keep him. With a run of a couple months of good hockey, he could become tradable or take on a bigger role with the Canes.
Disclaimer #2. This all assumes that Anton Khudobin would be willing to stay even if the Canes pony up the $. I wrote up details on this situation and how I think the Canes misplayed it in the Sabres recap that you can find ____. In a strange way, that situation is improving. For every game that Ward looks absolutely horrible, it becomes increasingly possible that Khudobin can get the NHL starting job that he has been working to get even if there is a $6.3M other option in town.
On defense: As I detailed awhile back and touched on in part 2, Andrej Sekera and Justin Faulk make 2 viable top 4 defenseman. The collection of Jay Harrison, John-Michael Liles, Ryan Murphy and Brett Bellemore provide a good mix of different types of players to fill out the bottom pairing. Although not ideal, 1 could also play in the top 4 which could work. I think the key though is that the Canes need a true #3 defenseman who brings offense as well as defense. When you look at how the Canes largely work in sets of 5, you get Sekera/Faulk and Jordan Staal’s line tasked grouped as a shutdown unit. Until some problems recently, they were actually doing pretty well with the defensive side of things despite being a little light on scoring. That leaves the 2nd D pairing to play a lot of minutes with the Canes top scoring line of Tlusty/EStaal/Semin. But the problem is that the Canes 2nd pairing just does not bring enough offensively to help generate the transition/rush offense that was a big part of that line’s surge in the 2012-13 season. Put more simply, the Canes really missed Joni Pitkanen who by himself could be a 1-man puck-moving, offense-creating machine regardless of partner. Instead, you have Brett Bellemore who has had a solid season and performed above what would be reasonable to ask of him, but who is just incredibly limited offensively. And you have Ron Hainsey who has also had a decent season, but I think he splits 90/10 in terms of making safe, sound, “stay out of danger… plays versus pushing the pace and trying to take calculated risks to create scoring off the rush and in transition. You can see Muller reaching for more offense from this pairing by inserting John-Michael Liles there, but it gives you too left shots and more significantly it just has not really helped offensively. So in part 2 I laid out a handful of surely expensive targets to add a #3 defenseman. I am torn on whether it is best to re-sign Hainsey to at least have 1 piece to build the 2nd pair this summer or whether it is better to collect maximum return for Hainsey and shop elsewhere. Regardless, I think the Canes ideally need to add 1 defenseman either now or this summer.
So that gets me to the forwards and the focus for part 3 of my trade deadline writing.
I see the Canes forwards like this:
1:Tlusty/EStaal/Semin--Has to work and be a 1st line. Tlusty could move but regardless is well-rounded enough to be a serviceable top 6 forward somewhere.
2D: ____/JStaal/_____ _--Through much of the season, Gerbe/--/Dwyer made for a good checking line that was scoring-lite but at least okay.
2O: Skinner/_____/____--Out of the gate this actually worked with Skinner leading an opportunistic scoring 3rd line with individual effort, but as the season has gone on his scoring has changed from sporadically good to just sporadic.
After that (specifically for 2013-14) you get a collection of decent depth players who specifically for 2013-14 are not really top 9 forwards at least on good teams. Tuomo Ruutu was obviously expected to be a top 9 if not a top 6 forward, and he has looked closer to reaching that of late, so there is hope. Nathan Gerbe has had a solid year but on a good team he is more the kind of player who spends time on a 4th line and then moves up when hot, to stir things up or to fill in for injury. Drayson Bowman and Riley Nash are also playing decent but produce more at a 4th-line type of level than a true all season 3rd-liner. Patrick Dwyer and Manny Malhotra are both known quantity type veterans and are good 4th-line players but are overslotted on higher lines. Lindholm still projects well, but in terms of right now he is nothing more than other depth players like Bowman, Nash, etc., and it is unclear whether that changes next season or after 2-3 more years of experience.
So when you net it out for 2013-14, I think the Canes are short 3-4 true top 9 forwards. If he stays, the hope is that Tuomo Ruutu could fill 1 slot next season and bring size and physical play to the mix. It is not unreasonable to have a spot filled by someone playing up. Per my comments above, there are decent options including Nathan Gerbe. But I still think that leaves the Canes looking to add 1 if not 2 top 9 forwards.
If you give me 2, I think the target job descriptions go like this:
1-Bigger, physical 2-way forward but must also be able to contribute offensively. This player could get paired with Jordan Staal or could free up Semin to balance the offense over the top 2 lines.
2-A complementary player for Jeff Skinner, ideally a center. Think Riley Nash in terms of speed (a requirement) and 2-way play but with more offense. The player I liked most for this role was Dave Legwand when the Canes were still chasing the playoffs and might have been shopping for rentals, but I think that ended with the 4-game losing streak. Note that Legwand is a free agent this summer, so I guess he could be a possibility.
Disclaimer: With the Canes struggles this season, I do not think many players are off the table if a good offer shows up, so the needs could change quickly if a top-tier forward were moved out.
Of these 2 forward job descriptions, what might be available in the trade market of the non-rental variety, or at least what are my ideas for the type of players the Canes need?
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19-Ryan Kesler. He is a long shot to land in Carolina, but I think he is exactly what the Canes need. He plays with a fire in his belly and a bit of nastiness, but it is not in the form of an unskilled 4th-line grinder. I think that is exactly what the Canes need. Kesler is another center which is maybe not ideal, but he can play wing. Paired with Jordan Staal, might you be able to build a dominant defensive line that can control the puck and also score? Alternatively, Eric Staal could move to LW making Kesler and JStaal 1 and 2 down the middle. This trade is a long shot for a number of reasons including the number of bidders. I put the odds at very slim, but interestingly, the Canes might have a big piece of what you would expect Vancouver to want back. Tuomo Ruutu who has looked much better of late would replace Kesler with a big, physical forward who also totes enough skill to play in the top 6 and their contracts even up the salary cap $. The Canes equal round draft picks rate out higher than most others’ because the Canes place in the standings. And if Rutherford is desperate enough to shake things up, he has other ammunition. The question is what and how much the Canes would have to offer along with Ruutu to win a big bidding war and also if Kesler’s list of destinations would exclude a non-playoff team like the Canes.
20-Drew Stafford. As long as absolutely nothing is bolted down in Buffalo, why not. Stafford would bring a pretty good 2-way right wing who could slot nicely in Dwyer’s place on JStaal’s line. His scoring has trailed off a bit the past couple years, but after watching what a change of scenery from Buffalo did for Gerbe and Sekera, hoping for a rebound is not crazy. He is signed through 2014-15 at a somewhat overpriced $4M, but maybe the Canes can get Buffalo to eat a portion of the salary if the Canes pay up to get him.
21-Martin Erat. He is a reclamation project probably available for about nothing at this point. His salary cap hit is glaring at $4.5M based on where he is right now as a player. But if you figure that the Canes will spend under the cap next year and have a bit to spare (that is my best guess), the math changes a bit. His actual salary is only $2.25M. Only a couple years back, he was a pretty good playmaker from the wing (think Whitney or Stillman). If he could refind his game, this could fit in Tlusty’s spot feeding scoring chances to EStaal and Semin or he could match Skinner in terms of pace and provide playmaking for a scoring-focused 3rd line. At this point, I think Washington would just be happy to see him gone, so the question is whether the potential reward outweighs the risk at a cost of only a 5th or 6th round pick plus a 3rd-line friendly $2.25M salary next season. Unless the Canes unload a core player or 2, I do not see them being able to buy safe and sound 2nd-liners, so it is going to take a diamond in the rough or 2 to fill out the roster. Could Erat be one of those?
With the Canes having some flexibility in terms of position and role for adding a longer-term forward, there are numerous possibilities. As long as JR is working the phones the next couple days, he might as well at least explore options to fill out the top 9 forward slots for next season.
This finishes up what I had half-drafted for the trade deadline. If I find time on Tuesday, I will put up a set of specific trade possibilities and possibly a survey to get everyone else’s thoughts on what the Canes should be doing and what they will do.
Twitter should be pretty busy for the next couple days = @CarolinaMatt63
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