For those still catching up on the Canes on-ice action, you can find my recap for Sunday's 5-3 loss in Anaheim HERE.
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Part 1 of my Hurricanes NHL trade deadline preview focused on which current Hurricanes might (and might not) be available for trade. You can find that HERE.
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That gets me to part 2 of my Hurricanes trade deadline preview - possible Canes targets. This list has changed dramatically over the past week. With 4 consecutive losses and a much bigger gap between the current spot in the standings and a playoff spot, I would be VERY surprised to see Canes GM Jim Rutherford pull assets from the already depleted system to get a rental aimed at helping just this year. But I do think Rutherford will poke around while working the phones to begin his summer work early to possibly make a long-term addition if the opportunity presents itself.
It makes sense for a couple reasons:
1) The Canes obviously have some holes. The team could use 1 (and it becomes 2 if Ron Hainsey whose contract expires this summer is traded away as a rental) more top 4 defenseman. It needs another top 9 forward or 2 ideally with size and physicality. Etc.
2) The fact that this type of trade is not the emphasis right now could be an advantage. Most teams are pushed up against the salary cap and focused short-term on the 2013-14 playoffs, so the volume of competition for these longer term deals is less right now. When each and every 1 of the big market teams gets up to $8M in new salary cap and also whatever comes off contract this summer, it is going to be difficult (cannot imagine Carolina is a top choice destination right now) and expensive (too many bidders trying to spend their new money) to make these additions.
I think the biggest need (as long as Khudobin is still in the fold) is a top 4 defenseman. First, to be clear, Ron Hainsey has performed well, and the team would be in an even worse spot without him. But I also think the current structure is a bit broken. Very often Muller has used the set of Gerbe/JStaal/Dwyer (or whatever JStaal's line has been) with Sekera/Faulk as his shutdown set. Until recently when Faulk seemed to hit a physical wall and JStaal also hit a rough patch, that had worked pretty well at least defensively. Early on that left Hainsey/Bellemore playing a ton of minutes with Tlusty/EStaal/Semin. With Bellemore's rising, that pair also held its own defensively. But the problem is that Bellemore just is not a puck mover or offensive type at all, and while Hainsey is pretty good at advancing the puck, he is really a 90/10 split for "make safe plays to avoid harm" versus "move the puck in a hurry to try to create offense." The result is that Tlusty/EStaal/Semin were almost never able to play offense in transition and off the rush. Ryan Murphy provided more of this than anyone not named Andrej Sekera, but he needs to improve his play without the puck a bit before he can log top 4 type minutes/matchups. More recently, Kirk Muller has elevated John-Michael Liles hoping for offense generation from the back end, but that has not helped much/yet.
In an ideal world, I think the Canes would like to add a left shot skating/puck-moving defenseman who is top 4 capable. With someone that looks more like Joni Pitkanen, perhaps the team could get away with more of a pure stay-home #4 without flipping the switch to off in terms of transition offense. And with Sekera and ____ offering a similar skill set and level of play on the left side, you also gain a little more mix and match flexibility.
So with that players 12-19 are all non-rental defensemen. I am cheating and posting much of what I wrote early on February 5 (so you can skip my details below if you already read that):
12-Christian Ehrhoff (Buffalo). I really like him. He is a minute-eating all situation defenseman who can skate, contribute offensively but also defend. He signed 1 of those crazy contracts, but lucky for the Canes the crazy part of it ($31M of salary and bonus in the 1st 2 years!) is over. What is left on his contract is actually reasonable especially if you are more concerned about real $ and a little less so about cap hit. He is 31 years old and signed for 7 more years at a cap hit of $4M/year which initially raises red flags. But when you dig to the next layer what you find is that his actual salary is 4 years at a reasonable $3.75M (3 years at $4M and 1 at $3M) to take him to about 35 years old. The last 3 years of the deal are only at $1M/year which you can live with even if he ages rapidly and is only a depth defenseman by that time. If you figure that the Canes will generally underspend the salary cap by a little bit and can live with the high cap hit in the out years, the actual remaining contract structure in terms of how much you write checks for is actually a bargain.
13-Trevor Daley (Dallas). Note added 3/3: Dallas is back in the playoff hunt, so Daley is probably off the board. I have no idea why Dallas would want to move him. Maybe they actually do not. But if he is available, he might be interesting. He is a non-spectacular but fairly well-rounded defenseman capable of playing in the top 4. He too has a pretty friendly contract making $3.1M/year (similar $3.3M cap hit) for the next 3 years. He is almost Ehrhoff lite. He is still in his prime at 30 years old, is a left shot mobile/skating defenseman who can log a bunch of minutes, play in any situation and is power play-capable. I do not think he brings as much as Ehrhoff offensively and he is a little bit on the smaller side, but he would be a nice safe bet to eat up top 4 minutes without killing you.
14-Dennis Wideman (Calgary). Wideman leans a bit more offense, but he has proven good enough defensively to play in the top 4 over the past years. He might actually fit best if Hainsey stayed providing a right shot complement who leans a little more offense to go with Hainsey’s defensive leaning. His contract at 3 more years at $5.4M/year ($5.25M cap hit) is a little bit high for what he brings, but per my comments above I fear that the deals done on the open market next summer will be similar or possibly even pricier.
15-Brian Campbell (Florida). I mentioned him as a possibility in Nov or Dec IF the Canes could swing a deal to give up futures to get Campbell’s good play and also package Gleason to make up for his bad contract. The contract (and whether he is even available) is the challenge. He is scheduled to make a whopping $7.14M for the next 2 years. That is obviously too much. But he is still a pretty good top 4 defenseman who can skate like mad and carry the puck. Might he pair well with someone like Bellemore who can handle the stay-home stuff and the work in the trenches behind him? I think the deal would need to be similar to what I proposed before. Could the Canes package Ruutu (to make the $ work) with some futures (to also give Florida something for its rebuilding project)? From a Canes standpoint, I would gladly take on $2.1M of extra salary (Campbell vs. Ruutu) to add a proven top 4 defenseman in exchange for a bit of a question mark at forward whose range is anywhere from “permanently limited physically such that he is now a 3rd/4th-line grinder at best… to “back to being a good, physical top 6 after a summer off.… The questions are many. Is he even available? Would Florida take Ruutu’s contract to help the $? How much futures have to go with Ruutu to make it worthwhile for Florida?
16-Keith Yandle (Phoenix). I mentioned him as a possibility for a blockbuster trade this summer that saw him and Jeff Skinner as the biggest components. Fast forward to February 2014 and Yandle is having a so-so 2013-14 season. Phoenix continues to be pretty deep on the blue line currently and maybe even more so looking forward. Could Yandle and his $5.7M/year for 2 more years be available for less now? The tricky part could be figuring out what to give Phoenix. They are very much in the playoff hunt and in need of more pure offense at forward. No way are they getting Skinner in this deal now. His stock has risen with a solid scoring year, Yandle’s is probably down a little bit. Past Skinner it is not clear what the Canes can offer in terms of 2013-14 scoring which makes a deal unlikely, but just maybe Phoenix is ready to cut the big contract loose, go a bit younger/cheaper on the blue line and can spend the money at forward in another deal.
17-Cody Franson (Toronto). The Leafs are alleged to be looking to get more defensive on defense. The Gleason for Liles trade was 1 step in this direction that by all reports has worked out well (for both teams actually). Franson and the Leafs had a minor contract skirmish this past summer before finally agreeing to a 1-year deal for a modest $2M. But that just set them up to have to do it again this summer when Franson is again a restricted free agent. Franson is roughly in the Dennis Wideman category as a right shot offensive-leaning defenseman who has proven adequate, not spectacular, in the past as far as defense goes logging top 4 minutes/assignments. He is not so much a physical force but at least brings size at 6-5 and 213 pounds. Perhaps the most enticing aspect of his game would be the howitzer he can fire from the point which seems to be the last possible missing ingredient to add to the Canes long-time struggling power play before just completely giving up and forfeiting future power plays. He like Wideman might actually fit best if Hainsey stayed to sort of be the more defensively responsible/safety net half of a 2nd pairing. Trade-wise this sets up a bit like Phoenix. Ideally what I think the Leafs would want would be an NHL now 2nd/3rd-line center or possibly an equal quality more defensively sound defenseman. The Canes really cannot offer either which leaves them hoping that Toronto just prefers to turn over the offensive part of their blue line over to the kids and part ways with Franson for any decent return even if it does not fill the top priorities on their wish list.
18-Whomever the Canes NHL scouts think is underrated. The Andrej Sekera trade this summer that saw the Canes give up underperforming and flawed Jamie McBain plus a 2nd round pick for Sekera who is scheduled to make only $1.75M this year and next to boot looks utterly brilliant at this point. Whoever pounded the table hardest to make the Sekera deal happen has to be riding high in terms of confidence and Canes trade clout right now. Do the Canes have another Sekera on their radar who they can quietly scoop up during the frenzied days of phone calls coming in a few weeks?
If I had to rate group the players above, it would go like this:
1a, 1b and 1c in Ehrhoff, Daley and Campbell impress me most as pretty solid all-around top 4 defensemen without much in terms of holes or question marks and represent the surest upgrades. I would be happy with any of the 3. I like Ehrhoff and Daley a little bit better defensively and also for their friendly contracts. The biggest issue with Campbell is the contract, but if (and maybe only if) Florida took Ruutu back in the trade, the $ work out. (And yes I realize that Ruutu has a no-trade clause and might not agree to go there though now mired on the 4th line he has to be getting closer to just accepting any kind of change of scenery.)
2a, 2b & 2c in Wideman, Franson and Yandle all represent more offensive-leaning options. Wideman and Franson as right shots could pair well with Hainsey being a defensive glue type partner for them. Yandle is a similarly offensively geared player but a left shot. All 3 concern me a little bit more defensively, but all have played (successfully) as top 4s, so it is not a stretch to slot them there again. The risk with each is the need to find the right kind of partner/chemistry such that he can do his thing offensively and maybe get a little bit of support/propping up defensively.
None of these players would come cheap. Top 4 defensemen never do. But it is like this. If the Canes are willing to rebuild and wait a couple years, then so be it. If they want to compete for the playoffs in 2014-15 (we seem to just keep rolling it forward another year), the system does not offer help in that kind of time frame. I like Ryan Murphy's development so far, but expecting him to be a #3 defenseman next year is as risky as the failed Jamie McBain experiment from a few years back. And there really is no one else in Charlotte who is ready to step into more than a depth role anytime soon.
So whether it is a trade right now, a trade this summer or the likely expensive free agent market (Girardi's $5.5M deal shows where that is headed) this summer, Canes GM Jim Rutherford is going to have to pay up at some point. It might as well be now if the opportunity presents itself.
For part 3 (either tonight or tomorrow morning), I will name some other targets at forward and see how close I can get to 30 names with "playoff push rental" category completely wiped out by the Canes' 0-4 start coming out of the Olympic break.
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