Nearing 1/3 of the way into the 2013-14 season, absolutely nothing has been decided in the Metropolitan Division. The division’s members have mostly struggled. If you parachuted Metro teams into other divisions, they would not fare well. Even the division-leading Penguins do not have enough points to be in the top 3 for a non-wild card playoff spot in either Western division. And only the Pens would be a top 3 team in the Atlantic Division (qualifying 3rd). And below the Pens, it is mostly a jumbled mess of mediocrity thus far. With a narrow gap of 5 points between #2 Washington and #7 Columbus, the ranking between 2nd and 7th is subject to change over course of any good or bad weekend for a few teams. And all of these teams have had their share of bad weekends.
When the season started, I sort of figured Pittsburgh for a sure thing somewhere near the top of the division standings and in the playoffs. Below that, I was buying none of the Kool-Aid that said any of the other teams were playoff shoe-ins. I figured Washington and New York Rangers were frontrunners but far from infallible. My optimistic hope as a Canes fan was that 1 of these teams would falter putting the #3 spot in the Metro in play and that otherwise the Canes could stay in the mix for 1 of the 2 wild card spots. I think that scenario is still possible. The Caps are in 2nd place, but they have been up and down the same as everyone else. If you burden them with the same crappy shootout results as some of the teams below them (they are 5-2), they fall right back into the fray. And the Rangers survived a massive road trip to start the season while MSG was finished and are playing better of late, but they have their issues too.
Shorter version: The battle for the middle of the Metro Division and 2-3 playoff spots is still wide open.
So enter Thanksgiving week and the schedule offers up consecutive games against Metro middler New Jersey who comes in with a record identical to Carolina’s.
The double header offers up 1 team that has struggled a bit of late and is struggling to find offense and score enough to win. Which team is that? Both actually. New Jersey comes into the game ranked 27th in goals scored per game, exactly 1 notch ahead of the Hurricanes who are 28th. But the Devils are treading water in the standings behind their defense that ranks 8th in the NHL in goals allowed and 2nd on the penalty kill. Riding a rollercoaster much like Carolina, New Jersey comes in on a down swing on the 2013-14 rollercoaster having lost 2 straight and scoring only a total of 2 goals in those 2 losses.
The Canes have had struggles of their own very recently but enter the game rising a bit. The team entered the weekend with a 3-game losing streak, but rose up to claim 3 points in 2 games to get back on the positive side of the ledger and mostly continue treading water in the standings. But the Canes come in with a 6-game road losing streak that last saw the team win away from Raleigh all the way back on October 19.
Keys to the game from the Canes side:
1) The early bird gets the worm…errr…I mean win. The Canes win against Ottawa on Sunday which marked the 1st time in 24 tries that the team won by more than a single goal in the 2013-14 season was a refreshing change. The team started slow but built a 3-1 lead quickly in the 2nd period. The Canes looked like a different team and incredibly comfortable playing with a lead and a margin for error even. The defense was sound giving up very little, the team seemed to press much less offensively and it still generated a decent amount of offense by being opportunistic. Against a New Jersey team that is struggling to score but can drive a low event game especially with a lead, an early lead drastically changes how this game gets played. More directly, whoever is winning gets to play the game that they are comfortable playing focusing on the defense and taking offense as it is served, while the over team has to press for scoring from an offense that has been sputtering. If either team can mount a 2-goal lead, I think it could be decisive and even a 1-goal lead nearing the midway point puts either team in the driver’s seat.
2) Patience and defensive soundness. The Devils are not generating much offense on their own right now. It is important for the Canes to let the Devils muddle in this problem and try to solve it themselves and avoid breakdowns that offer free offense to a team that needs it. Barring a repeat of the mini scoring surge that the Canes found to start the 2nd period versus Ottawa on Sunday, this game shapes up to be a back-and-forth affair with very little in the way of pretty offense, dynamic plays or scoring chances. If the game goes this direction, the Canes need to maintain patience and be comfortable playing a grinding 0-0 or 1-1 game deep into the clock. Fortunately, the Canes 2013-14 offense/defense balance looks similar to New Jersey’s, so the Canes are no stranger to this kind of game.
3) A couple big plays. With volume of offense likely to be low, there is a very good chance that this game will be decided by a couple big plays. If you get 1 of the limited grade A chances, you need to finish it. A power play goal could be huge. Etc. This game could very well be decided by even a small offensive outburst by someone like Eric Staal (who is playing well finally) or Jeff Skinner on the Canes side or Jagr or Elias on the Devils side.
For the 1st time in forever the Canes went on a bit of an offensive run against Ottawa. I am anxious to see if it can be the spark that starts a trend or if it was a random fit of offensive goodness amidst the mostly struggles. With the defense much-improved in 2013-14 and Ward back in net and playing pretty well, this team is built to do very well playing with early leads.
Can the Canes find a modest uptick and offense and combine it with a more average stretch of opponents to climb above the fray in the middle of the Metro Division?
Or is another road game just the poison that starts the Canes back on a mini-down swing and keeps them trying to tread water with the rest of the division foes?
Puck drops at 7pm on Fox Sports Carolinas.
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