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The 2014 NHL offseason is upon us and it is now time for NHL front offices to shape their rosters to better compete for the Stanley Cup in 2015.
A big part of that equation is goaltending. Do the Penguins stick with the status quo of Fleury and Zatkoff, or should they explore other options?
It is no secret that I do not feel that Marc Andre Fleury gives proper value at his 5M cap hit. When you are trying to improve a team that operates close to the cap ceiling and struggles to find enough room to fill out the roster you need to evaluate every option. That includes losing Fleury's 5M cap hit. You can try to find similar production for less of a cap hit, or find somebody who has better production for a similar cap hit. Personally I think it is going to be easier to find similar production for cheaper cap hit.
I do have specific ideas about how to solidify the goaltending position for the Penguins, and it will not cost more money, it may actually save a fraction of cap space.
Out go Marc Andre Fleury and Jeff Zatkoff, returning is Tomas Vokoun alongside newcomer James Reimer.
This scenario is predicated on the belief that the Penguins are going to properly use analytics and have a desire to better their roster.
First let's address the Vokoun re-signing. Vokoun missed all of 2013-14 with blood clot issues. Vokoun had to take blood thinning medication for months before returning to game action with the Baby Penguins late in the regular season. By all accounts he looked the part physically even with the long layoff between playing in game action.
Is there risk with Vokoun? Sure there is. He is going to be 38 years old next year. Why would I have confidence in him? Because I like his perception on things. Throughout his entire blood clot episode last year he was truthful and honest about his place in the game of hockey. He talked about walking away from the game if his situation dictated to do so. He also spoke about returning if everything played out correctly. If Vokoun feels as though he can play another year in the NHL, I believe he will be doing so with the confidence he can play at the level he is accustomed to, which is a solid level might I add. Vokoun would serve in the backup capacity, not as the primary starter. He would be somebody that could come in and at worst give league average goaltending.
As far as the starting goalie for the Penguins? James Reimer can certainly provide similar goaltending that Marc Andre Fleury has provided. Don't believe me?
Reimer and Vokoun are at league average or better in every season on the chart. Fleury, not so much. Are there years where Fleury is above league average? Most certainly, but for 5M I shouldn't see his line on the chart resembling a very fun roller coaster ride that takes him below the league average just as many times as he is above it. I want stability in net, something that can be counted on. Fleury is not that guy, especially during the postseason. Fleury was better in the 2014 playoffs, but he still failed to register a save percentage higher than .900% in 5 of the 7 games against the Rangers.
Further strengthening the case for a Reimer/Vokoun pairing is the fact that they have produced better numbers than Marc Andre Fleury despite playing for teams that haven't been as good as the Penguins. In Reimer's case the Leafs have been way worse!
Marc Andre Fleury has been given more than enough time to prove himself as the Penguins goaltender. It's time to get similar production from another source, especially when you can get two guys with better statistical resumes for the same as it would cost to pay Fleury. I believe Reimer will post better numbers in Pittsburgh and I certainly don't believe his level of play would be worse than Fleury. There is absolutely nothing that points to Reimer being a downgrade from Fleury.
While the numbers make sense, that is only step one. James Reimer is a pending RFA with the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Penguins would need to acquire him. One way to acquire a pending RFA is to use an offer sheet. This idea makes sense when talking about the salary range that Reimer would be in (2-3M). Unfortunately for the Penguins this is not doable. They are lacking the components necessary to make runs at RFA's via offer sheets. The Penguins are missing their 2nd round pick because of the Doug Murray trade (the gift that keeps on giving!) and they are missing their 3rd round pick due to the Lee Stempniak trade. For the Penguins to acquire Reimer they are going to have to trade for his rights.
The cost to acquire his rights is not going to be back breaking and the Penguins should aggressively pursue this course of action. Reimer is not in the Leafs plans anymore, they will be looking to move on from him. Could something like Brooks Orpik's rights be part of a potential deal to Toronto for Reimer? Would they be interested in Robert Bortuzzo? I wouldn't consider those farfetched options considering the kind of players that Dave Nonis and Randy Carlyle like. Trying to come up with player values when dealing with Toronto is difficult because they have shown time and time again that they don't do a great job of where they place player value. At the very least investigate what they would be looking for in a Reimer trade.
If the Leafs want something in the line of draft picks the Penguins have the ability to trade off some of their pending UFA player's rights. If Dan Boyle is worth a 5th round pick Matt Niskanen, the most desirable UFA on the market, should be able to fetch something better than that. Collect assets, use assets to make the team better.
In conclusion the Penguins should look to get better value at the goaltending position. There are options in front of them that they could explore to accomplish that goal. I believe a James Reimer Tomas Vokoun duo is a lot better than the status quo. Tristan Jarry is not going to be suiting up for the Penguins in the near future. They need to find options in the short term that give them quality goaltending without compromising their long term flexibility at the position. This scenario provides the Penguins a short term improvement while keeping the door open for Jarry if/when he is ready.
The probability of this very specific plan for the Penguins goal crease is low, but it does highlight the fact that the Penguins are paying a premium for goaltending output that doesn't match the investment. There are certainly different potential avenues to explore, this is just one of them. The only thing that I am certain of is a team that claims they are going to use analytics would not pay Marc Andre Fleury 5M to continue playing goal for them.
Thanks for reading!
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