ExtraSkater -- which really is a fantastic hockey site, if you aren't already aware of that -- has win probability graphs on their web site. Just added. Perfect timing, I think.
Ottawa was up 4-1 with about three minutes left in the game. They gave up the equalizer with less than a second on the clock. They gave up the game-winner in overtime.
This is what the win expectancy for Ottawa looked like:
So if you simulated that 1,000 times, Montreal gets the better end in six games.
This is the 2013-2014 Ottawa Senators.