The Oilers are a much improved club in terms of their roster. I don’t think there’s any question there. The problem is that, as MacTavish himself pointed out, there is still a big gap between where the Oilers were and where they want to be. The West is tough as nails and the top teams all made efforts to get better in the summer. The Centers in the NHL’s better half are huge, can skate, and know how to distribute the puck. Their Wingers are mean and know the fastest routes to the net usually involve going right through would be defenders. And the Defense, they haven’t transitioned into the role of being the 4th forward. They’re just as good at shutting the opposing offense down as they are turning their own up the ice.
If the Oilers want to leapfrog anybody, even with depth they haven’t had since 2006, then a few things are going to need to go their way. And these aren’t little things, either. The Oilers were astonishingly bad last year and especially so at the beginning of the year. Here are 5 things Edmonton needs in order to make the playoffs.
5) Justin Schultz Steps Up. The Oilers came to terms on a 1 year Bridge type deal for Schultz that most people thought the team paid too much on. It matched the amount of money he was making on his 1st deal but the issue is that the team wasn’t getting much production from their most played Defender last season. His shots per game dipped as did his points per game, and when we’re talking about an offensive defenseman those are the primary numbers that matter. Worse though, the Oilers were getting hammered with him on the ice. He was dead last in CF (42.7%) on the team and his teammates were better when he wasn’t on the ice with them (45.4%) as per stats.hockeyanalysis.ca.
He is key to the club’s success given that the team plays the living daylights out of him. They don’t need him to do one or the other, they need both things improved upon greatly. They need him to add the offense they pursued him for and they need him to get better in his own end.
4) 3 Scoring Lines. This has been a mythical beast in Northern Alberta. Spoken about in hushed tones, told around campfires, used as allegory to teach children there’s no such thing as too much of a good thing, the tale of the 3 scoring lines has to move from fiction to reality this winter. The Oilers 2nd and 3rd lines, based on practice from yesterday, was Perron – Arcobello – Purcell and Pouliot – Draisaitl – Yakupov. Which one will be the “2nd… and which one will be the “3rd… will be largely determined by who they line up against and/or how much they are producing offensively. One line consists of 1 former 60 point player and the Oilers’ reigning Goal Scoring leader. The other is made of former 1st, 3rd, and 4th Overall picks. That’s right, the Oilers have a line of former lottery selections and that doesn’t include Hall or RNH.
The team was 24th in Goal Scoring last year. Now they have attempted to construct a team that can sustain offensive pressure when the top line is on the bench. It has to pay off. Draisiatl cannot crumble with NHL duties and Arcobello needs to compliment NHL scorers.
3) Play With The Puck. Eakins either struggled to provide some structure for the team to play with last year or the team struggled to conform with the structure Eakins provided. No matter how you spin it the Oilers didn’t have the puck enough. You don’t need to know the Oilers were 28th in Fenwick For last year with 44.1% to know they were out-chanced almost every night. Your eyes could tell you the team was bad last season. When even the best players on the team aren’t breaking even in terms of offensive zone time or chances then we know there’s a problem systemically.
Eakins revamped his coaching staff and has the people in place he wanted. He has the tried and tested Ramsay on the bench as his sounding board and the man running the Defense. He has the new school Tyler Dellow providing different kinds of information that nobody else has access to. It’s his system, his voices, his problem if they cant get the ship righted. MacT added possession positive players like Purcell, Pouliot, and Fayne. Real fixes to Oiler problems start to happen when they aren’t out-chanced every evening.
2) Nuge Growing Up. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has battled shoulder problems since his first NHL season and perhaps dating back further to his WHL days. It sank his rookie campaign and robbed him of a Calder trophy that Landeskog never deserved. It derailed his 2nd season. It robbed him of training time for his 3rd season. Now he has no excuses. He’s stronger, he looks more assertive, and he’s another year older. His biggest issue is the fact that he has to line up against the killer 1Cs of the Western Conference. In his own Division he has to face Thornton, Getzlaf, Kopitar, and Sedin. His newfound strength and comfort in his shoulder has to jumpstart the offense that made him a 1st Overall pick. He was good last year, but just good. He has to be great for the Oil to overtake the other teams in the West.
At just 21 years old the franchise is depending on him to shoulder the load of responsibility that comes with being the number 1 Center of an NHL team and they have been doing it already for 2 years. If he fails that then their next best option is an 18 year old kid who will be playing in his 1st NHL game tomorrow. If RNH isn’t great then the Oilers are booking tee times early again this year.
1) Stellar Goaltending. It’s too much to ask for all of those previous things to happen all at once, but even if they did the team would be in trouble without stellar goaltending. They need Varlamovesque seasons from either or both of Fasth and Scrivens. I would be starting Fasth based on the preseason but Scrivens was the guy last year and that might carry more water with the goaltending than it did with the Defense (see Marincin, Marty). Whatever combination of starts it ends up being the Oilers will need a monumentous improvement in save percentage. Dubnyk sank the team and they were out of it before midnight on Halloween.
Scrivens was 12th in 5v5 sv% for Goalies who played at least 1000 minutes last year. 6th in 4v5 PK situations with at least 200 minutes played. They have players who can perform, it’s about doing it in Oiler silks for a complete season. If they can get the goaltending to keep them in games they have no business being in then they have the weapons to get them the rest of the way. If the Goaltending regresses then this team is dead in the water.
Those are the 5 things that need to happen for the Oilers to make the playoffs. 4/5 and they’ll be in competition for a spot. 3 or less and this team is still just another “Also Ran….
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