The importance of the start
The Winnipeg Jets enter their fourth season as the seventh team in Canada, and it's filled with hopes that something finally changes for the fans. To state this in the most simple terms they want to see the team establish a direction, and for some that direction even means downward, the faster the better.
Whether you are a believer in the rebuild idea of 'tanking' or one of sustained growth and development, both tactics are a defined direction. For the Jets the current and most recent direction is one that is all too familiar to Winnipeggers, mediocrity. One could go so far as to say bland or lifeless, the same kinds of descriptions that many use for the city of Winnipeg itself. While the GM Kevin Cheveldayoff holds to his draft and develop model fans, hope that some time soon the model pushes the team somewhere, in some direction.
The sentiment across the city is one of inevitable hand-wringing if the Jets get off to another one of their predictable starts. But what if the start is different? What if the Jets buck their past historical trends and chart a new direction?
In 2013-14 the Jets were 4-5-1 after 10 games and 12th in the west with 9 points, only 2 points out of 8th. After 20 games the Jets were 9-9-2 with 20 points at 11th and 4 points from 8th. After 30 games on December 5th the Jets were 13-13-4 for 30 points and still in 11th spot but 6 points back of 8th. It only got worse as the Jets could never climb up and hold to any position close enough to playoff contention. By February 5th they were 28-25-5 and at 61 points and still in 11th.
In 2012-13 after 10 games they were 4-5-1 for 9 points and 10th in the East. After 20 games the Jets sat at 10-9-1 for 21 points and 8th in the East but by 30 games they had moved up to 16-12-2 and 5th in the East. After 40 they had earned just 6 extra points in 10 games and were 19-19-2 and hanging on in 10th.
For the inaugural season in Winnipeg the Jets were 3-6-1 with 4 points after 10 games, 14th in the East. After 20 games they were 8-9-3 and holding 13th place but by 30 games they were 14-12-4 and now in 10th place. If any fans recall the December of 2011, it was a very hot month for the team, however 10 games later they were 19-16-5 and dropping fast at 10th place after climbing up to 5th.
The point that you see with these trends is that Jets do so much damage with mediocre starts they have to play hot to get into contention. They take nearly 30 games to make any kind of move and are simply throwing points and their playoff hopes away before they hit Christmas.
The start is everything.
In fact it's the basis that sets the trend for the rest of the season, whether team can sustain it or not. Last year former head coach Claude Noel divided the season into 5 game sections and stated the goal was to win 3 of every 5 games; the result would be 96 points. That point total would have placed the Jets in the post season- even in the competitive west.
After 10 games last season only 2 spots changed from the start of the season to the end in terms of playoff contention in the Western Conference. The Canucks and Predators, one decimated by managerial and coaching gaffes and the other by injuries to an elite goalie, fell out of the top 8 replaced by the Stars and Wild. In the lockout season, again in the West, two teams moved from the top 8 after 10 games. Los Angeles and Minnesota up and Dallas and Nashville down.
It's not impossible to do but the odds are not what a coach wants to rely on, the probability is just too risky. Start strong and finish stronger is how the Jets have to approach this season. If they are going to buck any trend, it's the propensity for slow starts that needs to be the one they/coach Paul Maurices choose.
With all the changes and adjustments along with harsh conditioning requirements is this likely? Tonight we get our first look at what the Paul Maurice regime brings to the Winnipeg Jets, something different or more of the same?