This is something I should have done last year, and the year before that, and the year before that and…you get the idea. I’ve been asked this question so many times, I’ve asked this question so many times and in the end it’s an exciting argument. Who will make their respective teams out of the draft in their first year? Some are a given, some make you question your sanity and some simply stun you into silence…Ryan O’Reilly style. More and more teams are trying to avoid rushing their players into the NHL while still maintaining the balance of perceived fairness at camp level. I’m going to put my bunions on the line with some predictions on who makes their roster and why.
But first, let’s go through a tiny bit of history on who made their team out of camp and where they were coming from.
2013 :
Nathan MacKinnon (1st overall) – Despite being the second youngest player in the top-end of the draft, the first overall pick made his team, why? Simply because his elite skating and perfectly adaptable NHL style game were an immediate moniker for success.
Aleksandr Barkov (2nd overall) – The youngest player in the NHL last year…by one day…made the Panthers because they were abysmal and because he was by far the most NHL ready player in the draft. He is built like a pro, he had played against professionals since he was 15 and he dominated against said pros at 17.
Seth Jones (4th overall) – Jones was expected to be the most NHL ready player, he both lived up to that and turned it false. He had a stretch on the top pairing, but that was pretty short lived as Weber-Josi was just too much better to move away from. Regardless Jones had nothing left to learn in the WHL other than decision making, something that needs experience, and he had a fine rookie season.
Elias Lindholm (5th overall) – After putting up the highest points in the Elitserien by an 18 year old since Nicklas Backstrom, it was pretty much expected Lindholm would make the Canes. His defensive zone play was already close to NHL ready, though he obviously struggled with limited ice-time and an entirely new play style.
Sean Monahan (6th overall) – The old hand of the draft, skating was still the big angering issue amongst scouts, but it didn’t really matter. He was NHL sized and NHL ready already.
Valeri Nichushkin (10th overall) – Another guy with NHL size and speed, Nichushkin had an interesting situation where he made it plain it was KHL or NHL. Easy enough, the Stars don’t have the best forward depth, so easy choice, now he’s there for “good.…
2012 :
Nail Yakupov (1st overall) – He was ready, he did extremely well his first season, and if he wasn’t Russian nobody would be giving him this crap.
Alex Galchenyuk (3rd overall) – Thanks to the lockout, the Habs got to see that Galchenyuk was fully healthy and had taken some big leaps in his game. Playing wing to begin…and end…the season, it made sense to find him a place in a sheltered role on a team relying on a team effort for scoring.
Mikhail Grigorenko (12th overall) – Ya…his offensive game was spotless for junior and pretty much done, the rest, not so much. I’m still surprised at the debacle his development went through, but keeping him for practically half a season was not a smart move, especially when your winger is John Scott.
2011 :
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1st overall) – Frail as a child jokes aside, RNH’s skill and maturity off the ice was an obvious sign that he was mostly NHL ready. Let’s not look to hindsight, let’s look at it at the time, there was no way the Oilers could keep him off their roster…just look at their centre depth (Gagner-Horcoff-Belanger).
Gabriel Landeskog (2nd overall) – The most defensively sound player in the draft for forwards, already built like a pro, plays an NHL style, to risk repeating myself, he was NHL ready.
Adam Larsson (4th overall) – I don’t really want to go into this one since it hasn’t turned out well, but hey…he was ready…
Sean Couturier (8th overall) – What do you do to the QMJHL super star? Use his defensive awareness and size to make him an elite defensive centre because you have too many offensive guys ahead of him! Love his development or hate it, it has to be said that Couturier who many figured might be a bust due to his epic fall from the preeminent favourite at number one the year before the draft to number eight is going to be a prominent player for a long time…even if the offense never fully materializes.
Andrew Shaw (139th overall) – While he didn’t play the whole year, he did manage to insert himself into the Blackhawks lineup and be set for life. The overager was one of the few fourth round picks to get into the NHL in his first season of being drafted…though it helped that he was 20 at the time. Regardless, this is the kind of feel good story we love.
2010 :
Taylor Hall (1st overall) – Built close to an NHL player, faster than lightning, won every award you can give a junior player, no way he’s not on a team that has just given the go for a full on rebuild.
Tyler Seguin (2nd overall) – It was hard to believe Seguin made the Bruins in their competitive group, especially considering his mostly one-way tendencies. Regardless, in hindsight it makes sense as he proved to be vital in getting them past the Lightning in the ECF’s and was a scoring threat from the fourth line that could be sheltered and called upon to play a bigger role when a goal or two down. All in all, due to the weird nature of his rookie position, as a top prospect drafted by a contender, he had one of the best development cycles possible in my opinion.
Jeff Skinner (7th overall) – So here’s the big kicker. The Calder Winning Skinner made some miraculous leaps from the draft to his camp. People were all worried about his speed; could he keep up with the NHL? Well he blew everybody away, he was the story of the season and to be honest, I can’t think of one person who called it. Nobody expected him to make his team even for the 9 games, yet he went far beyond it.
Alexander Burmistrov (8th overall) – This one still confuses me to this day. His defensive game was…fine…but he wasn’t ready in really any way. Drawing from hindsight it seems like they brought him in because 1. It was the Thrashers and 2. They feared he might not be long for NA without bringing him in early. I tend to stray away from the second argument because it seems like garbage drawn by Winnipegger’s trying to trope a player in a mask they need to create to explain away their terrible horrifyingly dreadful coach’s decisions. 2014 might have a “Burmistrov.…
Cam Fowler (12th overall) – Ok last one, I know I’ve bored you all. Fowler still remains one of the oddest players to be drafted in modern times. A top-3 projected player for 2 years running and even in the very end was still ranked third, ended up at 12. Yet even worse, he ended up at 12 and ready for the NHL (offensively) and is now already hitting his potential at only 22 as a top-pairing defender. It’s insane. It’s obvious he had big steps to take in his overall game, but having such a large talent in one direction can get players to play in their first year of being drafted based on the needs of a team is something that will crop up from time to time.
So where am I getting at with this? 2014 is a volatile draft and we all know some will make their respective teams. All we need to do now is wait…and speculate…so here we go.
Aaron Ekblad (1st overall) – Continuing the trend since 2006, the first overall selection will make his team. With only one year of junior eligibility left and already dominating his final year with what is essentially a pro body, Ekblad is ready. Now, on a Panthers team entering a new direction it will be interesting to see what role he plays, but looking at their defense, you have to think he will find himself fighting for that second pairing role.
Sam Reinhart (2nd overall) – The team hoping to grab Connack McEichel will want one of their expected pedestals for the franchise in the lineup, as well as the fact that Reinhart has nothing left to prove in junior. He also has only one year left of WHL eligibility, but he has done it all and really has nothing left to learn.
Leon Draisaitl (3rd overall) – The Oilers let Nurse spend another year in junior, which I think was extremely smart, however with Draisaitl the writing is on the wall. He’s going to be in the NHL this year whether he completely deserves it or not. He has the NHL body, he has competed against men at the WC’s and wasn’t deterred, he mostly carried a poor team by himself in both the WHL and the WJC (though he was a massive mixed bag in the WJC) and the Oilers themselves have such a need for a bigger forward that it’s hard to imagine them leaving him off without some UFA signing.
Nick Ritchie (10th overall) – One of my bold predictions is that the physically mature Ritchie will bull his way onto the Ducks fourth line. He won’t be a star; he might not even get much if any ice-time, but his size and his ability to play physical might be the big key in taking another 10th overall player into the NHL earlier than expected. I personally would like to have him play another year in the OHL and work on consistency. That might not be the case however for a Ducks team bursting with skill at the prospect level and lacking the grinding power forwards in the pipeline to streamline.
So yes I have Bennett and Dal Colle heading back to the OHL, obviously a lot can change in the next coming months but that’s how I see it now. Bennett needs a year to work on his overall conditioning and size to become more pro ready, Dal Colle needs a year to figure out his defensive coverage and just gain further experience as “the guy… with Laughton finally gone. Nylander while well versed at facing men and probably skilled enough to walk tepidly in to the NHL needs work further, I really hope he goes to the AHL, though it seems like he will return to MODO if he doesn’t make the Leafs out of camp. Fiala is another guy who I have as a darkhorse to be the “Skinner… of the draft and make it out of a camp, not because he’s a favourite, but because of his dominance at a pro level already. I think he needs more time obviously, but considering the damage he has done for HV71 and Switzerland, you wonder if the new look Preds might fast track him if even just for 9 games.
Lastly I want to just say a big thanks to everybody during the draft that read and commented on my articles, I had the second highest viewership since writing here that month. It would be easier to troll, but I like a bit of hard work.
Thanks for reading and congrats on Deutschland for beating your pseudo colony for World Cup Glory!