The Blue Jackets have started the season very well with a 10-5-3 record. As many have pointed out however, they are not playing as well as their record indicates. Their Corsi sits at 49.02%, ranking 21st in the league. This is very similar to their number last season of 48.03% which also ranked 21st league wide.
The Jackets have received strong play from players like Alexander Wennberg, Nick Foligno, Zach Werenski and Sam Gagner, but overall the team is still very much the same, why? Well one of the reasons has been the line of Boone Jenner-Brandon Dubinsky-Cam Atkinson, a line that last season was the Blue Jackets top line, has arguably been the teams worst line this season.
They were easily the Jackets best line last season, with Boone scoring 30 goals, Cam recording 53 points and Dubinsky finishing second on the team with 31 assists. They were a very productive line and were a break-even possession line. This season though the production is nowhere to be found and the possession stats have dropped like a rock.
Stats courtesy of Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com.
Individually each player’s rate stats at 5 on 5 have dropped significantly. There are many reasons for this drop in production, notably each player has struggled with creating opportunities for themselves and their line-mates.
Stats courtesy of Corsica.
This graph is showing at 5 on 5, how each player’s individual shots for per 60, individual scoring chances for per 60 and average shot distance changed from the 2015-16 season to the 2016-17 season. In the first column you can see that Cam and Boone are both down slightly in terms of their individual shots, roughly two and five percent respectively. Dubinsky on the other hand is down a whopping 94%! He has been unable to get anything on net thus far in the season. In the middle column you can see that each player’s individual scoring chance numbers are way down. Again, Dubinsky has struggled the most going from 4.05 iSCF/60 last season down to just 2.0 this season. The positive from this chart at least for Dubinsky is that his shot distance is virtually unchanged from last season.
Each player is generating fewer shots and fewer scoring chances, which explains why as a unit they have shot just 5.71%, the lowest among Blue Jacket line combos that have played at least 50 minutes together. This is down from the 7.27% they shot as a line last season.
Looking at these players as a unit they do not fare well when compared to the rest of the team or to what they did as a trio last season. The following graph shows the Blue Jackets lines that have played at least 50 minutes together as well as the Jenner-Dubinsky-Atkinson line from last season.
Line data from Corsica.
There is only one area here where this year’s version of Jenner-Dubinsky-Atkinson is better than last season and its goals for percentage. Last year that line was great at getting shots and scoring chances. They were hurt by a dreadful PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) which killed their GF%. Looking at their expected GF% they were very unlucky to post such a low number.
This year their expected GF% is higher than their current GF%, but it is still under 50%. This line has consistently been hemmed in their own zone, unable to get any sort of offense going. They have been the worst line this season from both a Corsi and shots standpoint. They are on par with the Calvert-Karlsson-Anderson line in terms of scoring chances and expected goals for, which is well below expectations for this line. It’s not even like they are suffering from terrible luck, they are shooting lower, but have benefited from a high on-ice save percentage. Their PDO is right in line to where it should be, near 100.
There are some situational factors at play here. It’s clear this line has been used in a more shutdown role this season, by Head Coach John Tortorella. They have been deployed more in the defensive zone and have faced a higher quality of competition then they did last season. Taking a look at a few recent games this line has seen a lot of its 5 on 5 ice time against players like Alex Ovechkin, Patrick Kane and Brad Marchand.
From my eye test it appears that Jenner is dragging this line down. He isn’t a good defensive player and he’s made some costly defensive mistakes that have hurt his overall line. I've noted numerous times this season in the Post Battles of miscues that Jenner has made that have cost the team goals. I think Tortorella is starting to notice this and has tried to shelter Jenner and take him off of that line when facing a team with a strong offense. For example Jenner barely played with Dubinsky or Atkinson against Colorado as Dubinsky and Atkinson were tasked with shutting down Nathan MacKinnon.
I like what Tortorella has done in recent games, splitting up this line. They were great last season, but it’s just not working this year. Getting Boone off that line is key as you still want Dubinsky and Atkinson taking on the opposition’s best players. They are two of the team’s strongest defensive players and should be able to handle that role. Jenner has yet to show he has the defensive chops to cut it in that role and moving him down in the line-up into a more offensive role would be beneficially to both him and the team.
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