What’s a Reasonable Return for Andrew Ladd?
By now the news and perhaps reality that Andrew Ladd will not be a Winnipeg Jet has sunk in, or at least is being accepted. For some, that thought might be premature but there is no denying that the winds of change are starting to blow towards Winnipeg, if not through it already.
So by two accounts the Jets, meaning GM Kevin Cheveldayoff and owner Mark Chipman, have turned their sights to re-signing Dustin Byfuglien over Andrew Ladd. The sources are Gary Lawless of TSN and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.
Is Ladd out? That would seem to be the logical answer and Lawless states that ‘it’s time to trade Andrew Ladd’ and that’s where the tricky part comes, what’s a reasonable return for Andrew Ladd now? Secondly who could possibly make the deal.
Let’s start at the beginning with the contract and it was just clarified by Gary Lawless to me that Ladd can provide a list of teams to Cheveldayoff on who to trade with. Rather where he will accept a trade. The length of that list is still an unknown amount of teams so we’d be guessing on how many and who.
Let’s apply some logic and whittle down some potential suitors.
The East
Florida- Dale Tallon knows the commodity Islanders- have assets and might want to make a push Pittsburgh- have made pushes for depth before Boston- have turned around season, could make a move Montreal- long rumoured to have interest in Ladd
The West
Nashville- Poile trying to add forward depth, said he is not done after Johansen Dallas- could Nill want to shore up his forward depth with experience and scoring? San Jose- would Sharks try to add in hopes of making one last gasp attempt again? Blues- always the bridesmaid in playoffs, Ladd could be depth they need to get pats round 1.
How many of those teams would fall on Ladd’s list? Maybe five if lucky because no one knows what Ladd wants in terms of location, team and opportunity.
The key is extraction of assets from those teams and if you are adding Andrew Ladd you want to add him to a core that you don’t trade pieces from. It’s one of those funny scenarios fans seem to forget when trades are created. It’s also a lot like the trading of your team’s garbage for another team’s good player. It rarely if ever happens.
Let’s go back a couple of years to another solid if not premier UFA forward who was traded at the deadline with Jarome Iginla. Here’s what the future hall of famer got from Pittsburgh:
Rights to college players Ken Agostino and Ben Hanowski plus the Penguin’s first round pick that year, the 2013 draft.
The pick was 28th overall and used to take Morgan Klimchuk- No NHL games and two partial AHL seasons
Ken Agostino has played 8 NHL games and two seasons in the AHL Ben Hanowski has played 16 NHL games and three seasons in the AHL
Jets fans should wonder if that’s the route Chevy should go at all when looking at the return as it’s essentially 3 lottery tickets.
Assuming that a first round pick is involved it will likely be 20th or later, but can he get anything else?
The different between 2013 and now is there was optimism about a rising salary cap and the Canadian dollar was still relatively strong. That’s not the case today so any team that wants Ladd and hopes to sign him after the conclusion of this season needs to have space. Here is the cap projections of those same teams for next year:
East 2016-17
Florida: 33,510,358 of space 12 UFA/RFA Islanders: 18,034,357 of space 11 UFA/RFA Pittsburgh: 4,794,167 of space 10 UFA/RFA Boston: 23,283,333 of space 13 UFA/RFA Montreal: 9,716,667 of space 8 UFA/RFA
The West 2016-17
Nashville: 14,286,190 of space 8 UFA/RFA Dallas: 14,570,417 of space 9 UFA/RFA San Jose: 11,399,999 of space 8 UFA/RFA St. Louis: 17,772,083 of space 12 UFA/RFA
Depending on where Ladd goes the potential return may be limited by what the team will be able to afford based on their plans with UFAs and RFAs. Simply put, if he is a rental in the most cap-strapped time since 2005-06 are teams willing to pay for him without sending something bad back in terms of salary? Think the Schenn deal that rid the Flyers of Lecavailer’s salary.
One could look at the situation and ask ‘why did the GM leave this so long?’ and that’s a fair question but it also is a totally different discussion. Right now the task at hand is maximizing return for Andrew Ladd if he’s not in the Jets plans.
Florida has many RFAs and one name that has popped is Brandon Pirri and perhaps he becomes part of a deal with a 2nd round pick for Ladd.
The Islanders could begin to accommodate Hamonic’s trade request and make a deal with him for Ladd but the Jets would be adding a lot more to the deal to make that fair.
In all honesty I’m not sure Pittsburgh has the right assets to make a deal other than draft picks and they could certainly use cap relief. For the Ladd would likely be a last gasp effort to make a run and rental only.
Boston has some youth but is youth they want to part with? They could use a ‘Ladd’ but again, without using picks is there a deal?
Montreal is much like Boston in that they could use a player like Ladd but is that even the right move for them? Do they have an asset the Jets could use now or soon that they would part with? Perhaps but it would probably have to be a change of direction for the team.
Nashville could shore things up with Ladd quite nicely and maybe make them a better team than their record shows. What would have to come back? Jets and Preds were rumoured to be in talks about Colin Wilson a few years ago and the Jets would love that cap security with Wilson and his Winnipeg family ties.
Dallas is intriguing but if I was Chevy I’d hang up the phone if Nill, the Jedi of GMS, called me, “those aren’t the players you’re looking for…… and boom they’d have Ladd and the Jets first for something far less ideal.
San Jose probably shouldn’t make a deal but for the sake of argument I’ve included them. If he was a rental sure it could make some sense so a pick and prospect or two lottery tickets coming back.
St. Louis is interesting because would they swap out Backes for Ladd in terms of salary allocation or would adding Ladd be even more attractive? Woudl they give up an RFA forward to add that depth to help get over the hump? They might be desperate enough to try.
Reality sets in though and unless a deal expands beyond Ladd for ??? it would seem that Chevy would have to find a team that has to shed an RFA player he wants and be a team Ladd wants to go to. It could be too difficult a combination for there to be any match. In all likelihood the Jets are looking at another first round pick and perhaps a prospect or two much like Iginla got.
The big hope for the Jets is that there is a bidding way and Ladd’s list is not overly exclusive or short. That’s also a very big ‘hope’ and as I’ve said before, hope is not a plan. Prepare t be underwhelmed would be good perspective for Jets fans. It’s not that Ladd could not fetch a healthy return compared to Iginla, he is 5 years younger than Iginla was when traded but he does also not come with the same pedigree unless cup rings matter.
36 days and counting for Buff and Ladd, things are going to be very interesting.