Value of draft picks
Since the Thrashers re-located to Winnipeg in 2011 the team that became the Jets has never had a high first round pick but they have also never picked in the bottom of the draft. This year marks a distinct difference in position and possibly draft strategy.
The draft is deep and heavy in talent at the top end but that’s a place the Jets will not be drafting, unless something changes.
The past four drafts have had the Jets picking 9th, 13th, 9th and 7th overall in the first round and it averages to 9.5 over the four drafts.
This year though the Jets have two picks in the draft at 17th and 25th overall picks and the questions most fans are wondering is if Chevy uses not those picks as they sit now or uses them for something else.
Taking a look at the possibilities one sees a plethora of options for Kevin Cheveldayoff.
Trade up in draft using both picks trade down with one pick to acquire a player or more later picks trade one or both picks for a roster player from another team Trade up in draft and then trade that pick for a roster player from another team Trade down and use picks for a depth roster player Use both picks to draft two players
Any of these options seem possible and a reasonable outcome given the Jets roster, UFAs, and the teams needing help with the salary cap. The interesting option that some are hoping happens is using the 17th and 25th picks to trade up..but just how far up?
In this scenario it would probably mean that a team with a higher draft pick misses out on the player they want and is open to moving down. This would be a bit like the Vancouver New Jersey situation from a few years ago where Cory Schneider was traded for the 9th overall pick and Bo Horvat but without a roster player being moved.
What is the value of moving into the top 10 this year and is it even possible?
Looking back at draft history is it better for Chevy to use two picks or get one closer to the top? If he was trading and hoped to get a better player what might he miss out on?
Starting with the 2013 draft and going back to 2011 here is a shot of players taken in the 17-25 picks.
2013
2012
2011
Notable Deep Drafts
2008
2005
2003
While not every draft can be like 2003 and have Parise, Getzlaf, Kesler and Richards taken so late there is value in the later picks and range that the Jets have this year, the key is to find it. One might argue that with the Jets current crop of drafted prospects they are far better at identifying and acquiring talent than they were as the Thrashers. There could be several reasons for this and the most important ones lead to the GMs at the time and who made what decision.
arguments about moving up in a draft have been made as well but there are consequences. If the assets used to move up are the two first round picks Chevy needs to know who he wants and why he wants that player. It’s a bit like doubling down in blackjack where you double your bet on a certain card combo. As Steven Burtch has pointed out moving up in the draft can also be costly with future contracts as higher draft picks seem to correlate to a higher signing cost on initial deals. It make sense because they should be better players but not always.
There’s always a chance of misplacing your faith and draft pick. from 2013-2011 drafts there have been 7 total players in the first 20 picks of each year (60) total who have not played an NHL game yet- 11.6% There has been 7 total players who have also played less than 20 NHL games each in those same 60 picks.
This is a small sample size but it’s recent and it might be safe to say that more resources than ever are being used to make the best choices possible and there are still mistakes. At the end of the day there is still a lottery aspect to any draft pick and that chance of failure may have nothing to do with development, it could be bad luck too.
The challenge presented for the Jets is unique- the situation where the cap is not moving significantly, there are no more compliance buyouts, there are enough teams who need cap space and the draft is predicted to be very deep is rare ‘perfect storm’. Chevy and company have a chance to navigate this storm better than others while watching teams get dashed on the rocks or capsized at sea.
Moving those two draft picks is probably not what anyone thinks will happen but future blogs will discuss the different options and what the Jets could get in return should they open up the market for them.