From where I sit the Oilers have found a significant upgrade over Arcobello and Draisaitl in Derek Roy. Now Leon Draisaitl is a kid still developing his game (and he has 3 goals in 3 games with the Rockets) and his place on the depth chart is temporary, but Derek Roy is here and now. He has 6 points in 7 games with the team and has found instant chemistry with 2 big parts of the team moving forward. The question is what do they do with him, and I think there are 4 potential answers.
The Oilers signed Benoit Pouliot to a 5 year deal this past summer. For better or worse he is with the Oil for a long time and I think that his best hockey has been played with Roy as his pivot. The same goes for Nail Yakupov. Pouliot had been so-so and Yakupov was significantly worse than that. Now the three players have found another gear, but they’ve been together for such a short time that it’s impossible to say how long that lasts.
What do they do?
OPTION 1: SIGN HIM NOW
He has been an incredible find for the team. He has a current Salary of 1M dollars and is about to become a UFA. The chemistry is there. The need for a competent C is there. This could be done today and the Oilers will have found somebody with 699 games of NHL experience that cost them Mark Arcobello to find.
The biggest risk here is that there hasn’t been a lot of time to see him play. We don’t know if he can continue this torrid pace. He certainly wont be shooting 50% the rest of the way, but what about the scoring rates of his partners or on the PP with him there? 7 games is not close to enough time to answer that question. However, he’s averaging about a minute more per game as an Oiler than as a Predator and he’s playing in the top 6.
It doesn’t feel like all that long ago that Roy was a 60-80 point player, but it has been a few years since he’s produced like that. Even if he never comes close to being the player he could have been once upon a time, is it still not more desirable to have that level of experience down the middle?
OPTION 2: SIGN HIM WHEN THE SEASON IS OVER
Hey, he’s been great for half a month and nobody can take that away from him, but shouldn’t the Oilers be more prudent? What can we really know about any player after just 7 games? He still hasn’t been terribly effective in the faceoff circle or in terms of possession aside from a couple of games. This thing could go pear-shaped pretty quickly.
This is a player who already went on waivers once this year and nobody wanted him. Nobody expected he would roll off 6 points in 7 games with a new club so the team should proceed with caution. He might have 7 points over the next 40ish games. Then the Oilers would have the upper hand in negotiations. He’s a pending UFA but if the season goes off the rails again he’s facing the possibility of not playing in the NHL again, and most certainly not in a place with such weak Center depth.
The biggest risk with this scenario? Roy continues to play very well. Maybe he doesn’t stay at almost a point per game but if he scores 25 points over the next almost 40 games then he might be tempted to say thanks but no thanks to Edmonton when the season is done. Mission accomplished for him. He’s proven to 29 other teams that he CAN still provide offense and leadership and a delicious 7 layer dip to parties. He signs with Calgary or something equally horrible and Edmonton goes back to looking for Roy/Gagner/Horcoff 4.0 so that SOMEBODY has experience on this team.
OPTION 3: TRADE HIM AT THE DEADLINE
Monday, March 2nd 2015. It’s 7:30 am Eastern Time and Slats is calling you because he just found out Derick Brassard is out for the next 2.5 months after dislocating his spine in a bizarre Foosball accident. He needs a center badly but he doesn’t have a lot of Cap Space. You can hear him sweating because he already made 7 other phone calls because he’s old and wakes up at 4:30 am every day anyway.
He’s asking about Roy and because he’s desperate and Roy has been playing so great that he’s willing to offer you a 2nd Rounder. You put him on mute and laugh it up with Scott Howson, who was watching you sleep. Now you can turn a player you got for the price of Mark Arcobello into a 2nd Round pick in a deep draft.
There are only 20 or so games left on the season and Hendricks can center the 4th the rest of the way or maybe there’s another deal on the table somewhere else where you can replace Roy with somebody who has more term.
Biggest risks are obviously that there is no control over what other teams are offering or how they perceive Roy. There’s also no sure deal to land Edmonton a player better than Roy. Should the Oilers make a deal if they can get a 2nd Rounder? 3rd Rounder? 4th Rounder? What is the cutoff?
OPTION 4: WHO NEEDS HIM?
Hey, the Oilers don’t need Derek Roy. Next year they will have Draisaitl back a year older and probably with a Memorial Cup Championship under his belt. Let Roy walk at the end of the year. Draisaitl will have a summer to train NHL style. He will be the 2C of the Edmonton Oilers. He can slot in exactly where Roy is, between Pouliot and Yak with a seamless transition.
In addition to Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers will also likely be adding Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel. These guys are touted as generational players and both play Center. Surely Edmonton will be set down the middle with RNH, Draisaitl, McEichel, Gordon. It’s not just killer depth, it’s enough to make 29 other teams demand rule changes to the Draft so this never happens again.
If Roy doesn’t want to sign with Edmonton then so be it, but Edmonton’s thought process shouldn’t be that delusional. The team just saw what it was like trying to run a very inexperienced group of Centers through the NHL. It was a nightmare. This scenario, for all the skill that’s present, has even less experience. I have no idea how anybody could possibly have witnessed what happened to the Oilers and still think “Yes, Leon Draisaitl will definitely be the 2C of the Oilers next year and there’s no need to consider somebody more experienced.…
Could LD or McEichel be the 2C of the Oilers? Sure. It COULD happen, but why would the Oilers walk the tightrope without a safety net again? If there are “too many centers… would it kill Draisaitl/McEichel/Player X to start the season on the wing next year? Also, there’s no such thing as “too many centers…, but there is such a thing as not enough.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I think there is plenty of merit to the idea that Leon Draisaitl or potentially McEichel can be the 2C of the Oilers soon, but soon doesn’t mean next year. And even if one of the kids DID earn the spot some time next year, it doesn’t mean they will do it in October. The Oilers need an established NHL Center who can play in their top 6 and it looks like they have one who needs a contract.
I don’t think the Oilers need to give Roy a 400% pay increase to keep him. He was waived not that long ago and nobody took him, but I think it’s clear that he can still play in the NHL. If he’s a relatively inexpensive option at 2C that can move down to 3C as others earn more ice then that’s perfect for a team like Edmonton.
I think the team can do, and has done, a lot worse down the middle than Derek Roy.
Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy