The Ottawa Senators obviously have a huge uphill battle ahead of them if they are going to extend their season past the weekend, or even past Wednesday night's game 4.
For a series that has been as tight as this one, the 3-0 lead is not indicative of the way it has played out on the ice, but that is where the Senators find themselves.
While there might not be a quick fix, there are some things that I think the Senators could do to extend their season by a game, which right now has to be the goal.
1. Adjust the D - The Senators defensive depth, or lack thereof has reared its ugly head at times, most notably in the second periods where they tend to get bottled up and the Habs have dominated. The solution, other than playing Erik Karlsson and Marc Methot for the full game, might be to swap partners on the 2nd and 3rd pairings. Right now the 2nd unit is 2 players who have puck-moving ability but are weaker physically. The 3rd pairing is 2 bangers who can handle themselves physically but lack top end puck moving skills, to put it gently.
If you were to switch Cody Ceci and Eric Gryba, making duos of Gryba-Wiercioch and Ceci - Borowiecki, you kind of get the best of both worlds. Its not like Boro-Gryba is being used in a shut-down role, so splitting them up and giving them each a partner with more mobility could avoid the extended periods of Montreal offensive zone presence.
Spreading the mobility around to each pair would allow a better opportunity to breakout with control, and more opportunity to get the long change completed In turn it would create more offensive opportunity, keep the units fresher, and put more pressure on the Habs to defend.
2. Slow the Pace - If you watched the first period of the Ducks-Jets game last night, you saw a solid strategy where Anaheim forced what seemed like 20 whistles in the first 5 minutes of the game, taking some of the crowd out of the game. Now I am not saying the Sens should employ that strategy off the bat, but if Montreal does happen to take control of the second period then don't be afraid to ice the puck or instruct the goalie to stop the play whenever possible and allow the team to reset. Other than Mika Zibanejad, Ottawa centres dominated the faceoff circle at home in Game 3, and getting a chance to breathe could benefit the team.
Having more defensive zone faceoffs might seem counter-productive, but in the long run even after an icing play the 15 second breather is better than a 2 minute straight shift defending, while the opposition can get a full line change because their bench is right there.
3. Pace Yourselves - Ottawa, for a variety of reasons seems to run out of gas during the second. On Sunday it could have been the fact that they hit everything that moved in an attempt to knock the Habs off their collective game. But for a team that has been playing essentially 3 lines at even strength, they can't keep the pace for too long. Sure, taking the body at every opportunity may wear down the opposition and certainly gets the crowd into the game, but if they can't turn that into turnovers and scoring chances, then it isn't getting the job done. Finishing checks when the opportunity arises is one thing, but putting yourself out of position to do so is another. The Senators took the body to the Habs in the first period, but couldn't maintain that pace throughout.
It is a 60 minute game, not 20.
Those are three things that the Senators have within their control, within reason. There are also a couple of things out of their control that would go a long way to extending the series to a fifth game.
* Hurt or not, Bobby Ryan simply isn't finding his range. It is tough to take him out of the lineup at this point, because I believe the effort is there. Perhaps cutting his even strength minutes might be the answer. He has shown the ability to play a bit more physical, but is dragging down the Zibanejad line's ability to produce. Mike Hoffman has been dangerous at times, but hasn't exactly had the support of offensively gifted line-mates. Swapping them might give the second line some energy and more potential to take some of the scoring pressure off of Turris, Stone and MacArthur.
This would also give the Habs' fourth line a different look to play against, because as this series stands right now it has been the 4th line matchup that has been the difference. The Legwand - Hoffman - Neil/Chiasson group is a collective -9, and the Senators are 3 goals short in the series. I don't expect the Senators' fourth line to do much scoring, but I would expect them not to hurt the team either.
* Given the supposed importance of special teams in the playoffs, who would have thought that when you factor in both power play and penalty kill, that Ottawa would have the best special teams in the post-season yet down 3-0 in the series?
Ottawa's power play is 30% in the series, tied with the Ducks for the highest efficiency in the postseason, but they have created just 5 opportunities in the last 2 games. That is not on the officials, that is on the team. On the flipside, only Washington has a better penalty kill rate that the Senators, who have killed off 12 of 13 Habs power plays. Ottawa needs to take some momentum from their success on special teams and turn it into offensive pressure.
The fact is that Ottawa has been playing on their heels, forcing much more time on the penalty kill than on the power play. They need to find a way to get sustained offensive zone presence and take a page out of the playbook of the regular season Sens and force the Habs to take their share of penalties. The Canadiens have done a great job of employing that strategy to a "T" and it has them up 3-0. Not because their power play has been effective, but it keeps the opposition on their heels. Perhaps making the changes outlined above, especially with player deployment, might make a difference, but they aren't necessarily changes I think you will see so we will never know.
* Last, and certainly not least, Ottawa needs to find a way to get that "next goal" past Carey Price. It is difficult to point the finger at Ottawa's goaltending, because on the whole they have been pretty good and given their team a chance to win each game. On the other hand, they have let in bad goals at inopportune times, in each game. For instance, Craig Anderson was stellar in holding the Habs to one goal through 60 minutes in game 3 and should have been enough to win most games, but the OT winner was definitely stoppable for most NHL goalies.
It is easier said than done when it is Price at the other end, but neither team has had a two goal lead in the series and if Ottawa is going to send it back to Montreal, giving their goalie a bit of margin for error might be just what the doctor ordered.
This has been a much more even series than the current count indicates. Ottawa has held the lead in the series for about 67 minutes or so, while Montreal has led for about 43 (using very round numbers). Ottawa just hasn't led at the right time, and now they face the most difficult of all tasks.