Lottery day is upon us!
This is Edmonton’s Stanley Cup. This is where we shine. It’s ours.
To all the other clubs that want to take the Oilers down. In the immortal words of our greatest hero, Ric Flair, "To be the man, you have to beat the man."
It’s the time of year when everybody hates Edmonton the most. Lord knows during the regular season Edmonton hasn’t been good enough to hate, but right now is when it hits peak hate.
The fate of 14 clubs is going to be determined by a set of ping pong balls this evening. Each team has a certain combination of numbers that allow them to win the lottery, plus there are combinations that would force a re-draw.
Toronto has the most combinations, 200, and then it’s Edmonton with 135 combinations, and so on. Last year the Oilers had 115 possible combinations that would have seen them land McDavid, so they actually have a better chance at the top prize this year.
I see the Oilers as a team capable of making any number of changes to their roster over the summer. I believe exactly which changes they will make wont become concrete until the Draft Lottery concludes.
So many non-Oiler fans have said things like “I hope Matthews pulls a Lindros!… at the idea of Edmonton winning the lottery again. To that I can really only say, “Sure!… I mean, any player that would snub the chance to play with Connor McDavid for a decade is mentally disturbed, but beyond that there are a lot of reasons to believe Edmonton wouldn’t be adverse to trading the top pick.
More than any team at the bottom of the standings, the Oilers have the least need for a top center. With McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH, the team has enough options down the middle of the top 6. Adding someone else isn’t going hurt. Matthews could play the wing. Draisaitl plays the wing. It would be an embarrassment of riches.
That said, because they don’t *need* Matthews as much as others would (for example Montreal is dying for a big top C so they could run Matthews-Galchenyuk 1-2) Edmonton might be open to trading down or trading the pick outright. It’s no secret what Edmonton wants. They want a potential top pairing RHD to play with Klefbom and another RHD who can move the puck well to play with Sekera/Nurse in the future.
The top pick hasn’t been moved in many years, but there’s no denying that IF Edmonton won the lottery, the other 29 teams aren’t out of the running to pick 1st just yet.
For myself (and many other Oiler fans) picking anywhere in the top 3 would be fantastic. It’s still just a 40% chance that will happen, but taking either of those big Finns 2 or 3 would be just as thrilling for me.
I can also see Edmonton trading the pick outright or dropping down if they end up selecting 4 or 5. The top rated defenders are all left handed and likely several years away from helping. There are a couple so moving back (but staying top 10) could still net one of them. Once again, trading the 4 or 5 straight up for a defenseman might be possible. Perhaps for a Vatanen-like player from a team looking to make changes. (I could see the Ducks doing Vatanen plus for a chance to draft Tkachuk).
Just a reminder for our Leaf fan readers. You DON’T want to hope that the Oilers are revealed as the 5th pick in the lottery. The only way the Oilers draft 5th is if the Leafs draft 4th. It’s the worst possible outcome for you if Edmonton is drafting in the 5 spot. You guys want Edmonton no worse than 4th.
Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy