The Tampa Bay Lightning and Chicago Blackhawks are getting set for Game One of the Stanley Cup Final, which will start on Wednesday night at Amalie Arena.
With that in mind, here is Part One of a two-part preview for the series. In this blog, I’ll briefly discuss three reasons the Bolts will walk out of this series as victors. Tomorrow, I’ll take the flip-side of that equation and look at reasons the Blackhawks will win. Without further ado...
Three Reasons the Tampa Bay Lightning Will Win the Stanley Cup:
Reason #1: Chicago’s Overworked Defense Duncan Keith is an all-star defenseman. He’s the anchor on a Chicago blueline that has had little trouble shutting down some of the league’s most potent offenses. Along with Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Johnny Oduya, Keith is part of a dynamic top-four that is the envy of so many National Hockey League teams.
The trouble for the Blackhawks, however, is that they don’t have much beyond those four. That has forced Joel Quenneville to ride his top-four horses a lot. Keith is averaging 31:35 per game, Hjalmarsson is clocking 26:33, Seabrook at 26:21, and Oduya at 25:23. Granted, those totals are helped out by some long overtime games, but the fact remains that Chicago’s bottom pairing barely plays.
In contrast, consider that Tampa’s most-used skater, Victor Hedman, has been averaging 23:24 per game. Jon Cooper has been able to use every pairing effectively, which has allowed him to keep Hedman and Anton Stralman fresher than the opponent’s top pairing. If this series turns into the track meet many are expecting, the Lightning could have a big advantage here. Chicago’s top guys have been really good to this point in the playoffs, but can they keep playing so many minutes against a speedy Lightning team that will make them skate? Tampa’s top-four may not be as solid as Chicago’s from top to bottom, but Cooper finds a way to use everyone. That could mean something this late in the Spring.
Reason #2: Too Young, Too Dumb
Cooper: "I don't know if we're young and dumb and don't know any better."
— Joe Smith (@TBTimes_JSmith) May 30, 2015Reason #3: Goaltending Let me make one thing very clear: I’m not suggesting that goaltending is a huge advantage for Tampa Bay. I’m simply highlighting that it’s not a category in which the Lightning are viewed as “second best… by a mile like they were in previous series.
Corey Crawford has had a lot of success in his career, but he’s no Henrik Lundqvist and he’s no Carey Price. The Lightning managed to beat those two elite, Vezina-caliber goaltenders. There’s no reason to think that they shouldn’t have a little bit of confidence going up against a goaltender who is not in that elite echelon. Crawford is still plenty good enough to win, as he’s shown before, but he’s not unbeatable. He and Bishop have strikingly similar playoff numbers. Even if you believe that the Blackhawks have a slight advantage in net, which is a fair argument, it’s impossible to say that the gap in this series is bigger for the Lightning than it’s been in the past two.
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As mentioned, I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at why the Blackhawks might be able to win this series. I think it’s only fair to paint both sides of the picture, as both teams have a legitimate shot of winning the Stanley Cup. They wouldn’t be here if they didn’t have a chance!
Thanks for reading!
Michael Stuart has been the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz since 2012. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter.