So I definitely eat crow on this one. I have been outspoken about the fact that it did not make sense (financially) to buy out Alexander Semin. I think the key word is "financially," and I think the other key factor is information that is not available to the public.
Mathematically, I still stand exactly where I started. For a team that is not likely to spend to the cap (and therefore get any benefit from the salary cap part of it), the buyout does not make sense in terms of risk vs. reward. The money gets spread differently, but the Canes still pay $4.7M (2/3) or Semin's salary for each of three years. They therefore pocket $2.3M to add another forward.
If you put aside the delayed payment over six years for the buyout amount, the basic decision is: 1-Would you rather gamble on Alexander Semin at $2.3M? 2-Would you rather pocket the $2.3M and buy a replacement for that price? (It gets spread over six years, but Canes still pay $4.7M of contract for each of the three years.) On paper, I would gamble on a rebound for at least one more year anyway.
But there is a pretty significant set of information that I do not have, and it is very possible that a rational decision drives from it. Better than anyone else, the combination of Ron Francis, Bill Peters, the rest of the coaching staff and maybe even a few players should have the best read on whether a summer off has enough potential to trigger a rebound from 2014-15. If the answer to that question is overwhelmingly 'no', then I think it makes sense to cut losses and move forward.
It is also possible that there is an element of accountability on Francis' agenda. Every time Semin has another rough stretch only for the team to 'try again' for a rebound at the expense of someone else's ice time it sends the wrong message and could take a toll on the entire locker room and team.
So while the math part of me continues to stare quizzically at my calculator, there is a part of me that eats crow and acknowledges that it is entirely possible that this is the right decision for the Hurricanes.
Next I am going to insert comments in the free agent frenzy that I posted earlier today because I think there are significant ramifications in terms of objectives and priorities for the rest of the summer:
1) The Canes are now short one (at least potential) top 6 scoring forward. The Semin move does not preclude another move for a defenseman, but it definitely shifts the need factor a bit more toward the forward position.
2) As far as Canes fans having to painfully watch favorites leave the organization, this move could be a positive for Jeff Skinner. By no means does it guarantee that he stays, but with the Canes now one lighter in the "skilled scorer" category, he is harder to let go. It is just a guess, but I think there is a possibility that Francis entered the draft weekend looking to unload one of those two big contracts to gain some financial flexibility such that when no viable trade materialized, buying out Semin was plan B.
What say you Canes fans? Do you agree with the move? Do you think that there is at least a decent chance that information not available to the public make it make sense? Who do you like at forward on the free agent market?
Twitter=@CanesandCoffee and still also @CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!