The Shape of the Wild for Next Season may Hinge on Dubnyk & Spurgeon
A Delicate Dance Taking Place Between Devan Dubnyk and Minnesota Wild
When Devan Dubnyk was the answer provided by Minnesota Wild general manager Chuck Fletcher to remedy the problem between the pipes for his team, I was certainly among those that questioned what type of impact the veteran goalie would provide. My #WildWednesdayShow colleague Scott Schwietz, labeled Dubnyk 'The Savior" at the time of the January 15th swap which sent a 2015 3rd round pick to Arizona for the goalie.
Fast forward to the week before the 2015 NHL draft and we are waiting to hear if Fletcher and Dubnyk can agree to a new contract before he has the opportunity to shop his services to the rest of the league on July 1st. Dubnyk appeared in 39 games after coming to the Wild, his regular season record was 27-9-2. Dubnyk then went 4-6 in 10 playoffs games which included ending the St. Louis Blues season and having his own ended by the Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks.
What I know to be true at this point about Dubnyk, he gives the Wild the best chance to win and answer the question that has existed for 3 seasons now about who will be the #1 goalie. I also think it is very relevant to wonder if half a season of top notch play between the pipes by Dubnyk, after a career that was certainly in doubt before landing in Arizona is enough to warrant a top of the market deal.
I think Dubnyk definitely deserves a raise and he has shown himself capable of being a #1 goalie in the NHL but I am very worried that his current leverage and lack of proven track record of top notch performance between the pipes makes him a huge risk to find himself becoming the latest backstop to turn sour on the Wild.
I have to believe Fletcher has set a price point on Dubnyk that is between $4Mil-$5mil per season for 2-3yrs. The reports have Dubnyk's agent seeking a $5Mil per for 5 year deal. The reality is Dubnyk is a former first round draft pick of his hometown team Edmonton Oilers where his numbers reflected a pretty consistent save percentage despite the team around him being a mess. What has yet to be determined and is sure to be a contentious point between Fletcher and Dubnyk's agent, is how much value playing in the Wild's system has benefitted the netminder in his resurgence.
Minnesota Head Coach Mike Yeo places great emphasis on defensive responsibility by each of the forward lines and talented two-way puck movers on the back end so I think Dubnyk has to factor that into his decision making process this summer. It is hard to argue with a guy having a perceived window to maximize his earning power and call his shot via free agency.
I truly worry though that Dubnyk will come back to earth and his performance will not justify his contract thus placing the Wild right back into the familiar position of being committed to a netminder who is no longer contributing and counting against the cap. Obviously it is a flawed narrative to just blindly believe Dubnyk will pick right up where he left off or that he will immediately become the new Niklas Backstrom getting the new deal and failing to produce.
I wonder how accurate it is to believe Dubnyk can get a 5yr/$25mil deal from San Jose or any team for that matter. That is what Fletcher must contend with is handling this negotiation with Dubnyk and his agent. I honestly wonder if Fletcher walks away from Dubnyk, if a combination of Antti Niemi or Karri Ramo with Darcy Kuemper wouldn't suffice in addressing the position with very little drop off from Dubnyk.
I am not saying that 29 year old Dubnyk isn't the best option now for the Wild, I just wonder how reasonable it is to give him a 5 year deal for #1 goalie money when this franchise has seen netminders 30 years and older fall apart so consistently. This is certainly a HUGE gamble by Fletcher to sign up or walk away from Dubnyk in the next week or so. There is no right answer apparent right now. I would certainly feel more confident about the risk/reward if Dubnyk and Fletcher worked out a deal for 2-3 years now.
I am also in the camp that still believes Kuemper could be the goalie of the future for this team so although Dubnyk is Mr. Right, it is more accurate to think of him as Mr. Right Now in terms of how Fletcher should proceed.
To Ship Jared Spurgeon or Not
I think Wild fans have really come around to understand that although Jared Spurgeon does not possess that all important ideal size for an NHL defensemen, his talent and effort are certainly enough to compensate. Spurgeon has arguably been the best Wild blue liner in back to back seasons which makes this offseason a curious one for his future in the 'State of Hockey' as the cap crunch and areas of need are evaluated and addressed by the front office.
Spurgeon's name has been mentioned by many as a possible trade target and asset at the disposal of Trader Chuck. The analytic types are outraged given how positively Spurgeon has affected the Wild with his play in both ends of the ice the past two seasons. I think Spurgeon's inclusion in trade rumors though makes perfect sense when you look at the current roster and the choices that have already been made by Fletcher.
The blue line was previously a huge weakness both on the NHL roster and in terms of organizational prospect depth for the Minnesota Wild as recently as 3 summers ago. As it stands now, defensemen depth throughout the organization is the greatest strength in my opinion because at every level of hockey the Wild have skilled blue liners developing with promising futures.
Fletcher agreed to very reasonable long term deals with Jonas Brodin and Marco Scandella that take effect this season. Also Ryan Suter is locked into a 13 year $98 Million dollar deal, so the reality it seems for Spurgeon is that although he is beloved here and has earned a raise certainly it may have to come from a different franchise. Spurgeon will be a restricted free agent after this coming seasons and has a cap hit of $2.667mil and an actual salary on $3mil this season. Spurgeon has earned a raise and because Fletcher has so much actual money and cap space invested in his veteran forwards it probably means needing to cut cost on the blue line going forward.
Also I think we must take into account Dubnyk getting paid and Mikael Granlund seeking a raise on a bridge deal when trying to figure out why Fletcher would be shopping Spurgeon. Beyond the money matters of this Spurgeon's role is basically Mathew Dumba's future role should he continue to trend towards meeting his potential at the NHL level. Spurgeon has played so well with Marco Scandella as his defensive partner since both graduated to the NHL from the Houston Aeros.
Fletcher must make some very tough projections on the young players he has amassed here in his time as the top personnel man for this organization. With regard to Spurgeon I think he qualifies as a Top 4 dman on any roster in the NHL so his value in a trade may never be higher especially given his performances the last two seasons. There will always exist questions about his size but anyone that has seen in play knows he is able to compete at a high level against the top offensive players in this league.
I think Spurgeon must be packaged along with other assets to make his departure from the Wild via trade a means to improve the roster. I also see Spurgeon's future here in Minnesota directly tied to how the front office evaluates and projects both Brodin and Dumba over the next 3 seasons because they are all right defenseman with two way ability and that will command Top 4 pairing ice time going forward.
What makes Spurgeon the odd man out in my mind is the raise he has certainly earned with his play and the possibility that the front office believes 20 year old Dumba and 21 year old Brodin are only just beginning to realize their true potential and production at the NHL level. The other monkey wrench in this equation is that arguably the top prospect of the organization is a defensemen in Gustav Olofsson and the team also has former NCAA free agent Christian Folin under team control for a very team friendly amount contract wise going forward.
I think Spurgeon is as tough to see go as my favorite Wild player of all time Brent Burns, but the timing sure seems to be pointing towards it being the right move as was the deal Fletcher flipped draft night at the Xcel Center.
Believe me, any trade including Spurgeon this summer will come with significant scrutiny and pressure for Fletcher to return a top tier asset that has a significant impact on the roster this season. Fletcher has alluded to the fact that he feels the heat to address the shortcomings of this roster which I believe to the lack of size/skill center to slot in between Granlund and Mikko Koivu.
As far as option for a suitor for Spurgeon with the asset to fill the significant gap between the Finn pivots, Edmonton and San Jose are the two team that jump off the page to me with players that fit the mold and may become available.
In Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers have two very talented young centers at their disposal with guaranteed #1 overall draft pick Conner McDavid on the way. The Oilers believed they had their Top 2 pairing puck moving defenseman when they out maneuvered and bid the rest of the NHL for Justin Schulz. The Oilers also dealt Jeff Petry at the NHL trade deadline this past season so their need to address the blue line has never been greater.
With regard to the Sharks, there have been rumblings that Logan Couture is unhappy with how the organization has handled the playoff meltdown from the previous spring and the overall management of the roster. It is hard to argue that the Sharks through avoidance have created a toxic culture by stripping their beloved Captain of his position leadership wise and sticking with a maligned coach and general manager despite it looking very much like it was time to move on from both.
Maybe Peter DeBoer's hire has a calming affect of the Sharks but there is certainly a need for a player like Spurgeon there and Couture is everything that the Wild is currently missing at the pivot in my mind.
With both option I have mentioned above for a possible Spurgeon destination, it is clear that other assets would have to be involved to make it work. I think that what Wild fans must keep in mind for themselves is whether a third straight postseason of disappearing act by high price veterans can be simply explained away by Fletcher and Yeo as being an anomaly and returning this fall without an upgrade at the center position does not fit the definition of insanity.
HUGE 2015 NHL Draft Party at Bennett's Chop and Rail House June 26th 6pm-9pm
Please consider joining us for the 2015 NHL Draft Party Broadcast of the #WildWednesdayShow LIVE at Bennett's Chop and Rail House on June 26th from 6pm-9pm. Great food and drink specials, live band, and most importantly an opportunity to come out and talk hockey with the crew! We will be fully supported as Joe Bennett and many of my friends and peers in the Wild Internet Community will be joining us to talk the draft and offseason.
Bennett's Chop & Railhouse
Address: 1305 7th St W, St Paul, MN 55102 Phone:(651) 228-1408 Hours: Open today · 11:00 am – 1:00 am Reservations: opentable.com Menu: bennettschopandrailhouse.com
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